Active distributor count and retention rates in China/Hong Kong markets (typically 60-70% of Asia-Pacific revenue)
Regulatory developments in direct-selling markets, particularly China's enforcement of multi-level marketing rules
USD/CNY exchange rate movements given significant China revenue exposure and translation effects
New product launches and penetration rates among existing distributor base
moderate-to-high - Premium nutritional supplements represent discretionary health spending that contracts during economic weakness, particularly in emerging markets where middle-class consumers trade down or defer purchases. The -7.2% revenue decline and -34.1% net income drop suggest cyclical pressure, though essential health positioning provides some defensiveness. China's economic slowdown and property sector stress directly impact target consumer segments. Direct-selling model amplifies cyclicality as distributor income opportunities diminish during recessions, reducing recruitment.
Low direct sensitivity given zero debt and $0.1B cash generation, eliminating financing cost concerns. However, rising rates indirectly pressure valuation multiples for low-growth consumer stocks and may reduce distributor willingness to invest in inventory during tighter credit conditions. Higher rates strengthen USD, creating FX headwinds on Asia-Pacific revenue translation (70-75% of sales). The 0.4x P/S ratio suggests rates already reflected in depressed valuation.
Regulatory crackdown on multi-level marketing and direct-selling models, particularly in China where authorities periodically tighten pyramid scheme enforcement, potentially restricting compensation structures or market access
Secular shift toward e-commerce and retail channels reducing appeal of direct-selling model among younger consumers who prefer online purchasing over distributor relationships
Increasing competition from retail supplement brands (GNC, Vitamin Shoppe) and direct-to-consumer online brands offering comparable products at lower prices without distributor markups
value - Deeply discounted valuation (0.4x P/S, 0.7x P/B, 2.7x EV/EBITDA) attracts contrarian value investors betting on stabilization and mean reversion. 13.7% FCF yield appeals to cash flow-focused investors despite operational challenges. The -35.1% one-year return and depressed multiples suggest capitulation selling, creating potential for value realization if business stabilizes. Not suitable for growth investors given -7.2% revenue decline and structural headwinds, nor dividend investors despite cash generation.
Trend
-7.8% vs SMA 50 · -22.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Strong accumulation on above-average volume. Buyers are absorbing supply aggressively — any positive catalyst could trigger a rapid covering move.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $875.1M $875.1M–$875.1M | — | $2.87 | — | — | Low1 |
FY2025 | $849.7M $849.7M–$849.7M | ▼ -2.9% | $2.45 | ▼ -14.8% | — | Low2 |
FY2026(current) | $925.0M $925.0M–$925.0M | ▲ +8.9% | $1.74 | ▼ -29.0% | — | Low1 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
USNA News
About
usana health sciences’ mission is to develop and provide the highest quality, science-based health products, distributed internationally through network marketing, creating a rewarding financial opportunity for our independent associates, shareholders, and employees. we’ve got history. not baggage. we’ve been around since 1992, so we’re experienced (we’ve heard that’s a plus). and we look great for our age. plus, we have substance to go along with our great looks. we’ve got top-notch manufacturing facilities, our own scientists and research and development team, and the highest standards for our nutritional products. we have an award-winning compensation plan and award-winning products. we don’t like to brag, but we come pretty highly recommended. that’s because we got off on the right foot. we were founded by a scientist—not a corporate suit. usana’s founder, myron wentz, is an internationally recognized microbiologist, immunologist, and pioneer in infectious disease diagnosis. but su
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USNA◀ | $17.98 | +0.00% | $332M | — | — | — | 1500 |
| $131.45 | +0.00% | $1.0T | — | +472.5% | — | 1520 | |
| $1048.95 | +0.74% | $465.4B | 54.5 | +816.7% | 294.3% | 1508 | |
| $80.82 | +0.00% | $347.7B | 25.4 | — | — | 1509 | |
| $141.57 | +0.00% | $329.7B | 20.5 | — | — | 1484 | |
| $189.61 | -1.17% | $295.5B | 26.7 | +731.3% | 2791.8% | 1509 | |
| $149.12 | +0.30% | $203.8B | 23.3 | — | — | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.02% | — | 30.1 | +673.5% | 1543.0% | 1503 |