★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $859M — +10.0% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
01Same-store visit growth rates - driven by patient referral volumes, therapist capacity utilization, and seasonal patterns (typically weaker Q1/Q4)
02Clinic acquisition pipeline and integration success - number of new clinics added, purchase multiples paid (typically 4-6x EBITDA), and accretion timelines
03Commercial payer reimbursement rate changes - annual contract renegotiations and mix shift between commercial (60-65% of revenue) versus Medicare (25-30%)
04Medicare rate adjustments - annual physician fee schedule updates affecting therapy reimbursement, historically flat to down 1-2% annually
05Labor cost inflation - physical therapist wage pressure in tight markets, particularly for experienced clinicians with specialized certifications
06Outpatient physical therapy services (estimated 85-90% of revenue) - fee-for-service reimbursement from commercial payers, Medicare, Medicaid, and workers' compensation
07Industrial injury prevention services (estimated 5-10%) - corporate contracts for workplace safety and ergonomic assessments
08Management fees from partner clinics (estimated 3-5%) - administrative services provided to affiliated practices
value - The stock trades at 13.8x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages of 15-17x…
Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs for clinic acquisitions, which are typically debt-financed at 2-3x leverage.
Watch on earnings: Medicare physician fee schedule annual updates - published by CMS each November, affecting 25-30% of revenue starting following January, National physical therapist employment and wage data - Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly reports indicating labor market tightness, Commercial health insurance enrollment trends - shift between PPO, HMO, and high-deductible plans affecting reimbursement rates and patient responsibility.
One Sentence Summary:
U.S. Physical Therapy: the story is balanced — same-store visit growth rates - driven by patient referral volumes, therapist capacity utilization.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
