Same-store visit growth rates - driven by patient referral volumes, therapist capacity utilization, and seasonal patterns (typically weaker Q1/Q4)
Clinic acquisition pipeline and integration success - number of new clinics added, purchase multiples paid (typically 4-6x EBITDA), and accretion timelines
Commercial payer reimbursement rate changes - annual contract renegotiations and mix shift between commercial (60-65% of revenue) versus Medicare (25-30%)
Medicare rate adjustments - annual physician fee schedule updates affecting therapy reimbursement, historically flat to down 1-2% annually
moderate - Physical therapy demand shows defensive characteristics as Medicare patients (25-30% of visits) maintain utilization regardless of economic conditions. However, commercial insurance patients may delay elective procedures during recessions, and workers' compensation volumes correlate with industrial employment levels. Consumer spending impacts ability to meet deductibles and co-pays, particularly with high-deductible health plans becoming more prevalent. Overall revenue typically declines 3-5% during recessions but recovers faster than discretionary healthcare services.
Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs for clinic acquisitions, which are typically debt-financed at 2-3x leverage. USPH's debt/equity of 0.61 suggests moderate balance sheet leverage, making acquisition economics sensitive to rate changes. A 100bp rate increase adds approximately $1-2 million in annual interest expense and reduces acquisition IRRs by 200-300bp, potentially slowing growth. Additionally, higher rates compress valuation multiples for healthcare services stocks, as investors demand higher earnings yields relative to risk-free rates.
Medicare reimbursement policy changes - potential for therapy caps reinstatement, bundled payment expansions, or rate cuts exceeding historical 1-2% annual declines could compress margins by 100-200bp
Shift toward hospital-employed physician models reducing independent referrals - health system consolidation directs patients to hospital-owned therapy facilities, limiting access to independent clinics
Telehealth and home-based therapy adoption - digital therapy platforms and Medicare home health expansion could reduce outpatient clinic visit volumes by 5-10% over 5-year horizon
value - The stock trades at 13.8x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages of 15-17x, attracting value investors seeking healthcare services exposure with defensive characteristics. Recent 80% net income growth and 44% EPS growth suggest operational improvement, but 1-year return of -3.9% indicates market skepticism about sustainability. The 5.1% FCF yield appeals to investors seeking cash-generative businesses with acquisition optionality. Limited dividend (estimated yield below 1%) reduces income investor appeal.
No analyst coverage available for this stock.
Trend
-5.2% vs SMA 50 · -10.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
USPH News
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About
u.s. physical therapy is a publicly held company that operates hundreds of outpatient physical and occupational therapy clinics in over 40 states. the company's clinics provide acute, post-operative, and preventative care for a variety of orthopedic and neurologic disorders including sports and work related injuries. the unique nature of the company is its operating structure - the company's clinics are developed and operated through partnerships with therapists who share in the clinic's profits. in addition to the therapist partnership model, u.s. physical therapy also buys into existing physical therapy practices.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USPH◀ | $71.83 | +0.86% | $1.1B | 70.7 | +1633.2% | 192.9% | 1500 |
| $68.56 | -3.59% | $13.3B | — | +12626.1% | -14525.8% | 1500 | |
| $513.72 | -0.71% | $11.8B | — | +43205.3% | -3008.0% | 1500 | |
| $87.60 | +0.60% | $11.5B | — | +3288.2% | -4239.0% | 1500 | |
| $183.72 | -1.59% | $10.7B | 29.2 | +1871.5% | 680.1% | 1500 | |
| $206.53 | -0.59% | $10.6B | — | +6554.5% | -2868.8% | 1500 | |
| $74.81 | +1.81% | $10.5B | 51.8 | +2325815.3% | -19.7% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.46% | — | 50.6 | +342142.0% | -3398.3% | 1500 |