VCTR
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+3.97%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume1.4× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 67Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
78.16
Open
78.17
Day Range78.17 – 81.29
78.17
81.29
52W Range57.03 – 81.29
57.03
81.29
100% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
361.1K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
19.9x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.03%
Beta
1.18
Market-like
Performance
1D
+3.97%
5D
+8.06%
1M
+29.37%
3M
+17.02%
6M
+30.04%
YTD
+28.80%
1Y
+37.61%
Best: 1Y (+37.61%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +46% YoY · 71% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 20x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.5 (low) · FCF $5.79/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$5.20B
Revenue TTM$1.31B
Net Income TTM$330.06M
Free Cash Flow$380.95M
Gross Margin71.1%
Net Margin25.3%
Operating Margin42.5%
Return on Equity15.7%
Return on Assets7.8%
Debt / Equity0.40
Current Ratio0.52
EPS TTM$5.01
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Quarterly net flows (organic growth) - positive flows signal investment performance and distribution effectiveness, typically moving the stock 3-5% on earnings

Equity market performance (S&P 500, Russell indices) - approximately 60-65% of AUM is equity-oriented, creating direct sensitivity to market appreciation

M&A announcements - acquisitions of boutique managers at accretive multiples (sub-10x EBITDA) typically drive 5-10% stock moves

Operating margin expansion - investors focus on realization of acquisition synergies and scalability, with 100bps margin improvement worth approximately 8-10% to valuation

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate-to-high - Asset management revenue correlates strongly with equity market valuations and investor risk appetite. During economic expansions, rising corporate earnings drive equity appreciation (increasing AUM) while positive investor sentiment generates net inflows into equity strategies. Recessions create dual headwinds: market depreciation reduces AUM and fee revenue, while risk-off flows shift assets to lower-fee money market and fixed income products. However, Victory's diversified product mix (equity, fixed income, alternatives) and sticky institutional relationships provide some cyclical buffer compared to pure equity managers.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create mixed effects. Higher rates pressure equity valuations through discount rate expansion, potentially reducing AUM and revenue (negative). However, rates rising from economic strength can drive equity market appreciation and improve fixed income reinvestment yields, benefiting performance (positive). Victory's 40% debt-to-equity ratio means financing costs increase modestly with rate hikes, but the impact is secondary to AUM effects. The company's fixed income strategies (approximately 25-30% of AUM) may experience performance headwinds during rapid rate increases but benefit from higher yields attracting flows.

Key Risks

Fee compression from passive/ETF competition - industry-wide shift to low-cost index products pressures active management fees, with Victory's average fee rate potentially declining 2-5 bps annually

Regulatory changes affecting distribution - DOL fiduciary rules, SEC marketing regulations, or retirement plan fee disclosure requirements could disrupt intermediary distribution channels representing 40-50% of flows

Concentration in specific investment franchises - top 3 boutiques represent estimated 50-60% of AUM, creating key person risk if portfolio managers depart

Investor Profile

value - Victory trades at 14.3x EV/EBITDA, below mega-cap peers (18-25x) despite strong margins and M&A track record, attracting value investors seeking asset management exposure with acquisition upside. The 4.8% FCF yield and potential for capital return (buybacks, dividends) appeals to income-oriented value investors. Growth investors are attracted by the M&A-driven AUM expansion strategy and operating leverage potential. The stock's moderate volatility and correlation to equity markets also attracts tactical traders positioning on market sentiment.

Watch on Earnings
S&P 500 Index level - primary driver of equity AUM appreciation (60-65% of total AUM)Monthly mutual fund and ETF flow data (ICI reports) - indicates industry-wide trends in active vs. passive flowsVictory's quarterly organic growth rate - net flows as % of beginning AUM, target is +2-4% annuallyOperating margin trajectory - watch for progression toward 40%+ as acquisitions mature and synergies realize
Health Radar
3 strong1 watch2 concern
49/100
Liquidity
0.52Concern
Leverage
0.40Strong
Coverage
8.5xStrong
ROE
15.7%Strong
ROIC
11.7%Watch
Cash
$164MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE13 analysts
BUY
-6.5%downside to target
L $74.00
Med $76.00consensus
H $84.00
Buy
754%
Hold
646%
7 Buy (54%)6 Hold (46%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
4 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 67 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.52 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 6, 2026
In 92 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 11.9%

+27.8% vs SMA 50 · +43.0% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI66.5
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+1.87
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$81.29+0.0%
Current
$81.26
EMA 50
$64.64-20.5%
52W Low
$57.03-29.8%
EMA 200
$56.84-30.1%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$57.03100th %ile$81.29
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:2
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)575K
Recent Vol (5D)
782K+36%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 7 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$851.0M
$832.3M$873.0M
$3.65
±3%
High5
FY2024
$891.0M
$889.0M$896.6M
+4.7%$5.28+44.7%
±1%
High7
FY2025
$1.3B
$1.3B$1.3B
+46.4%$6.24+18.2%
±1%
High5
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryVCTR
Last 8Q
+1.1%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
-9%
Q2'24
-8%
Q3'24
+4%
Q4'24
+6%
Q1'25
-1%
Q2'25
+8%
Q3'25
+2%
Q4'25
+7%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
B. RileyBuy
Apr 15
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyUnderweight → Equal-Weight
Oct 18
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyUnderweight → Reduce
Oct 18
UPGRADE
JefferiesUnderperform
Mar 27
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalMarket Perform
Mar 27
DOWNGRADE
Craig-HallumHold
Mar 27
DOWNGRADE
Wolfe ResearchOutperform
Mar 27
UPGRADE
CitigroupSell
Mar 27
DOWNGRADE
Piper SandlerUnderweight → Overweight
Mar 27
UPGRADE
Sandler O'NeillCautious
Nov 29
DOWNGRADE
Piper SandlerUnderweight
Nov 23
DOWNGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Hold
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Financials
Dividends2.41% yield
+17.4% avg annual growth
Annual Yield2.41%
Quarterly Div.$0.4900
Est. Annual / Share$1.96
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Annex Advisory Services, LLC
592K
2
Swedbank AB
410K
3
Nuveen, LLC
409K
4
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP INC
232K
5
ENVESTNET ASSET MANAGEMENT INC
131K
6
Kendall Capital Management
89K
7
MOODY NATIONAL BANK TRUST DIVISION
87K
8
Huntleigh Advisors, Inc.
44K
News & Activity

VCTR News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

victory capital is an investment management firm operating a next-generation, integrated multi-boutique business model with $62.3 billion in assets under management as of june 30, 2018.* our differentiated model is comprised of nine autonomous investment franchises, each with an independent culture and investment approach. additionally, we offer a rules-based solutions platform, featuring our victoryshares etf brand as well as custom and multi-asset class strategies. our investment franchises and solutions platform are supported by a centralized distribution, marketing and operational environment, in which our investment professionals—unencumbered by other responsibilities—can focus solely on the pursuit of investment excellence. victory capital provides institutions, financial advisors and retirement platforms with a variety of asset classes and investment vehicles, including separately managed accounts, collective trusts, mutual funds, etfs and uma/sma vehicles. we are headquartered

CEO
David Brown
Mannik S. DhillonPresident of Investment Franchises & Solutions and Head of ETFs
Michael Dennis PolicarpoPresident, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Administrative Officer
Thomas Michael SippExecutive Vice President
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
VCTR
$81.26+3.97%$5.2B16.2+4618.5%2527.0%1500
$309.40+0.57%$834.5B14.6+330.7%2039.3%1505
$322.03-1.47%$617.3B27.7+1134.0%5014.5%1499
$497.08-1.52%$440.0B28.4+1641.6%4564.7%1489
$53.12+1.78%$377.0B12.2-45.1%1592.6%1503
$189.25+0.64%$300.4B16.3+1147.7%1466.4%1518
$918.89+1.73%$272.7B15.5-138.4%1373.0%1516
Sector avg+0.81%18.7+1241.3%2653.9%1504