VICI Properties Inc.VICINYSE

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DCF Valuation

DCF Valuation Summary

Strong Buy

Fair Value: $67.63 per share(market-calibrated)

+123.9%

Upside to Fair Value

Current

$30.20

Pure Model

$70.18

Fair Value

$67.63

Bull Case

$81.69

Bear Case

$59.47

Market Reality Check

Model Terminal Growth

2.50%

Market-Implied Growth

0.50%

Calibrated Growth

1.80%

Fair value uses 65% model / 35% market-implied terminal growth. Pure model: $70.18.

What's Driving This Ratingfor VICI

✓

CapEx already efficient

CapEx at 0.09% of revenue is already at or below sector maintenance level. No normalization needed — cash conversion is already strong.

✓

Premium margins already priced in

EBIT margin of 93.57% is already well above sector average. The model holds this level — there's limited room for margin expansion to drive upside. Valuation depends primarily on revenue growth.

→

Moderate revenue growth

Analyst consensus projects 2.70% revenue growth, fading to 2.50% by Year 10. Revenue reaches $5.1B (vs $4.0B today).

🎯

Market pricing in lower growth than model

The market implies only 0.50% perpetual growth — 200bps below the model's 2.50%. This suggests the market sees headwinds or risks not in the model.

✓

Strong cash flow conversion

Year 10 FCF/EBITDA conversion of 94.65% indicates efficient cash generation. FCF reaches $4.5B by Year 10 (88.65% FCF margin).

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Cost of Equity (CAPM)

Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.50%

Beta (β)0.70

Market Risk Premium4.50%

*Using current implied premium (4.5% per Damodaran 2026), not historical (6.5%)

Cost of Equity (Re)7.65%

Cost of Debt

Pre-tax Cost of Debt5.00%

Tax Rate5.00%

After-tax Cost of Debt4.75%

Equity Weight (E/V)100.00%

Debt Weight (D/V)0.00%

WACC Calculation

WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1-Tc))

WACC = (100.00% × 7.65%) + (0.00% × 4.75%)

= 7.65%

10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)

Year	Year 1	Year 3	Year 5	Year 7	Year 10
Revenue	$4.1B	$4.3B	$4.5B	$4.7B	$5.1B
EBIT	$3.8B	$4.0B	$4.2B	$4.4B	$4.8B
Tax	$192M	$201M	$211M	$222M	$239M
NOPAT	$3.7B	$3.8B	$4.0B	$4.2B	$4.5B
+ Depreciation	$4M	$4M	$4M	$4M	$5M
- Capex	$4M	$4M	$4M	$4M	$4M
- Δ NWC	$11M	$10M	$11M	$12M	$12M
Free Cash Flow	$3.6B	$3.8B	$4.0B	$4.2B	$4.5B
Discount Factor	0.929	0.802	0.692	0.597	0.479
Present Value	$3.4B	$3.0B	$2.8B	$2.5B	$2.2B

FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital

Terminal Value Calculation

Perpetuity Growth Method

Year 10 FCF$4.5B

Terminal Growth Rate2.50%

WACC7.65%

TV = FCF₁₀ × (1+g) / (WACC-g)

Terminal Value$90.0B

PV of Terminal Value$43.1B

Exit Multiple Method

Year 10 EBITDA$4.8B

Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA)22.0x

TV = EBITDA₁₀ × Exit Multiple

Terminal Value$105.1B

PV of Terminal Value$50.3B

Valuation Summary

Perpetuity Growth Method

PV of Projected FCFs$27.3B

PV of Terminal Value$43.1B

Enterprise Value$70.4B

(-) Net Debt-$563M

Equity Value$70.9B

Shares Outstanding1.1B

Price per Share$66.79

Exit Multiple Method

PV of Projected FCFs$27.3B

PV of Terminal Value$50.3B

Enterprise Value$77.6B

(-) Net Debt-$563M

Equity Value$78.1B

Shares Outstanding1.1B

Price per Share$73.56

Pure Model Fair Value

$70.18

Average of perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods (before market calibration)

Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share

WACC ↓ / Growth →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
5.65%	$87.47	$91.77	$97.43	$105.23	$116.67
6.65%	$75.52	$78.02	$81.12	$85.06	$90.26
7.65%	$66.71	$68.29	$70.18	$72.47	$75.32
8.65%	$59.81	$60.88	$62.11	$63.57	$65.30
9.65%	$54.20	$54.94	$55.80	$56.77	$57.91

How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Scenario Analysis

Bear Case

$59.47

96.9% vs current

• -25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.0%
• Beta: 0.87

Base Case

$70.18

132.4% vs current

• Analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 2.5%
• Beta: 0.70

Bull Case

$81.69

170.5% vs current

• +25% vs analyst consensus
• Terminal growth: 3.0%
• Beta: 0.59

Key Assumptions & Drivers• Real Estate Sector

Growth Assumptions (Select Years)

Year 1 Revenue Growth2.70%

Year 3 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 5 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 7 Revenue Growth2.50%

Year 10 Revenue Growth2.50%

Terminal Growth Rate2.50%

Margin & Efficiency

Current EBIT Margin93.57%

Tax Rate5.00%

Historical Capex / Rev0.09%

NWC / Revenue10.00%

Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.

Institutional-Grade Methodology

Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta

Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 22x EV/EBITDA (Real Estate sector)

This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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