WMS
-1.30%(-1.94)
Open
149.43
Prev Close
149.25
Day High
150.45
Day Low
147.21
Volume
345,530
Avg Volume
894,045
52W High
179.32
52W Low
104.69
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-1.30%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.4× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 48Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
149.25
Open
149.43
Day Range147.21 – 150.45
147.21
150.45
52W Range104.69 – 179.32
104.69
179.32
57% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
894.0K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
24.5x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
1.37
Market-like
Performance
1D
-1.30%
5D
-1.50%
1M
+4.68%
3M
-8.08%
6M
+8.52%
YTD
+1.71%
1Y
+28.00%
Best: 1Y (+28.00%)Worst: 3M (-8.08%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
mixed signals
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 25x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
Insufficient data
Lean Bearish
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Residential housing starts and building permits - drives 30-35% of revenue with high correlation to single-family construction

Infrastructure spending authorization and project commencement - particularly state DOT budgets and federal highway bills

Polyethylene resin price spreads - ability to pass through raw material costs with 30-60 day lag affects quarterly margin volatility

Non-residential construction activity - office, retail, warehouse development drives storm water management demand

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Revenue directly tied to construction activity which is highly cyclical. Non-residential construction (45-50% of sales) correlates strongly with GDP growth and commercial real estate investment. Residential exposure (30-35%) tracks housing starts with 6-12 month lag. Agricultural segment (15-20%) depends on farm income and commodity price cycles. Current 1.0% revenue growth reflects construction market normalization after 2021-2023 boom.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through multiple channels. Rising mortgage rates directly reduce housing affordability and single-family starts, impacting 30-35% of revenue. Higher rates also reduce commercial real estate development economics (cap rate compression), affecting non-residential demand. However, company benefits from low leverage (0.72 D/E) so minimal direct financing cost impact. Valuation multiple contracts with rising rates given 15.5x EV/EBITDA premium to industrials average.

Key Risks

Substitution risk from concrete pipe manufacturers in large-diameter applications (>60 inch) where HDPE cost advantage diminishes - represents 10-15% of addressable market

Regulatory changes to stormwater management requirements could accelerate or decelerate product adoption - EPA MS4 permit expansions are tailwind but state-level rollbacks are risk

Polyethylene resin supply concentration - dependent on Gulf Coast petrochemical complex, vulnerable to hurricane disruptions and force majeure events

Investor Profile

growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) - Company trades at premium valuation (15.5x EV/EBITDA, 4.5x P/S) justified by 25.8% ROE and market dominance, but recent negative earnings growth (-11.7%) attracts investors betting on cyclical recovery. Strong 35.7% one-year return indicates momentum investors are present. High free cash flow ($0.4B, 2.7% yield) and low payout ratio attract compounders focused on reinvestment and M&A. Not a dividend story (likely <1% yield).

Watch on Earnings
Monthly housing starts (HOUST) and building permits (PERMIT) - leading indicators for 30-35% of revenue with 3-6 month lagPolyethylene resin spot prices (typically $0.45-$0.65/lb) - tracks crude oil with 2-3 month lag, drives gross margin volatilityFederal and state infrastructure appropriations - particularly surface transportation reauthorization bills and state DOT budgetsArchitectural Billings Index (ABI) - leading indicator for non-residential construction activity 9-12 months forward
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 2.3%

-0.9% vs SMA 50 · +1.4% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI48.1
Neutral territory
MACD+0.69
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$179.3+21.7%
EMA 50
$149.0+1.2%
Current
$147.3
EMA 200
$141.4-4.0%
52W Low
$104.7-28.9%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$104.757th %ile$179.3
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:2
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)783K
Recent Vol (5D)
516K-34%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts
Financials
News & Activity

WMS News

Unable to load news

About

headquartered in hilliard ohio, advanced drainage systems, inc (ads) is the leading manufacturer of high performance thermoplastic corrugated pipe, providing a comprehensive suite of water management products and drainage solutions. our innovative products and superior drainage solutions are used across a broad range of end markets and applications, including residential, non-residential, agriculture and infrastructure applications. we have established a leading position in many of these end markets by leveraging our national sales and distribution platform, overall product breadth and scale, and our manufacturing excellence. founded in 1966, we operate a global network of 3,700 employees, 57 manufacturing plants and 33 distribution centers. in july 2014 we became a public company traded on the nyse®. to enable our continued growth, we are looking to add top talent to our dynamic organization.

CEO
D. Scott Barbour
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
WMS
$147.31-1.30%$11.5B24.3+103.6%1550.0%1500
$397.67+0.00%$2.1T1500
$91.95+0.00%$316.0B14.11510.7%1500
$131.46+0.00%$305.1B23.71305.9%1500
$184.74+0.00%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$146.57+0.00%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$88.98+0.00%$251.9B14.4668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.19%20.8+521.3%1557.5%1500