Residential housing starts and building permits - drives 30-35% of revenue with high correlation to single-family construction
Infrastructure spending authorization and project commencement - particularly state DOT budgets and federal highway bills
Polyethylene resin price spreads - ability to pass through raw material costs with 30-60 day lag affects quarterly margin volatility
Non-residential construction activity - office, retail, warehouse development drives storm water management demand
high - Revenue directly tied to construction activity which is highly cyclical. Non-residential construction (45-50% of sales) correlates strongly with GDP growth and commercial real estate investment. Residential exposure (30-35%) tracks housing starts with 6-12 month lag. Agricultural segment (15-20%) depends on farm income and commodity price cycles. Current 1.0% revenue growth reflects construction market normalization after 2021-2023 boom.
High sensitivity through multiple channels. Rising mortgage rates directly reduce housing affordability and single-family starts, impacting 30-35% of revenue. Higher rates also reduce commercial real estate development economics (cap rate compression), affecting non-residential demand. However, company benefits from low leverage (0.72 D/E) so minimal direct financing cost impact. Valuation multiple contracts with rising rates given 15.5x EV/EBITDA premium to industrials average.
Substitution risk from concrete pipe manufacturers in large-diameter applications (>60 inch) where HDPE cost advantage diminishes - represents 10-15% of addressable market
Regulatory changes to stormwater management requirements could accelerate or decelerate product adoption - EPA MS4 permit expansions are tailwind but state-level rollbacks are risk
Polyethylene resin supply concentration - dependent on Gulf Coast petrochemical complex, vulnerable to hurricane disruptions and force majeure events
growth-at-reasonable-price (GARP) - Company trades at premium valuation (15.5x EV/EBITDA, 4.5x P/S) justified by 25.8% ROE and market dominance, but recent negative earnings growth (-11.7%) attracts investors betting on cyclical recovery. Strong 35.7% one-year return indicates momentum investors are present. High free cash flow ($0.4B, 2.7% yield) and low payout ratio attract compounders focused on reinvestment and M&A. Not a dividend story (likely <1% yield).
No analyst coverage available for this stock.
Trend
-0.9% vs SMA 50 · +1.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
WMS News
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About
headquartered in hilliard ohio, advanced drainage systems, inc (ads) is the leading manufacturer of high performance thermoplastic corrugated pipe, providing a comprehensive suite of water management products and drainage solutions. our innovative products and superior drainage solutions are used across a broad range of end markets and applications, including residential, non-residential, agriculture and infrastructure applications. we have established a leading position in many of these end markets by leveraging our national sales and distribution platform, overall product breadth and scale, and our manufacturing excellence. founded in 1966, we operate a global network of 3,700 employees, 57 manufacturing plants and 33 distribution centers. in july 2014 we became a public company traded on the nyse®. to enable our continued growth, we are looking to add top talent to our dynamic organization.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WMS◀ | $147.31 | -1.30% | $11.5B | 24.3 | +103.6% | 1550.0% | 1500 |
| $397.67 | +0.00% | $2.1T | — | — | — | 1500 | |
| $91.95 | +0.00% | $316.0B | 14.1 | — | 1510.7% | 1500 | |
| $131.46 | +0.00% | $305.1B | 23.7 | — | 1305.9% | 1500 | |
| $184.74 | +0.00% | $286.4B | 27.2 | +862.9% | 1745.9% | 1500 | |
| $146.57 | +0.00% | $279.7B | 21.0 | +597.3% | 2564.4% | 1500 | |
| $88.98 | +0.00% | $251.9B | 14.4 | — | 668.4% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.19% | — | 20.8 | +521.3% | 1557.5% | 1500 |