Brent crude oil prices (export parity pricing for upstream production, though domestic sales face regulatory caps)
Argentine peso exchange rate and devaluation expectations (creates FX translation volatility, affects dollar-debt burden)
Vaca Muerta production volumes and well productivity (unconventional shale development pace, infrastructure bottlenecks)
Government fuel price policy and subsidy changes (directly impacts downstream refining margins and cash generation)
high - Upstream earnings are directly tied to global oil demand and Brent pricing, which correlate strongly with industrial production and GDP growth. Domestic fuel demand follows Argentine economic activity, though government often maintains artificially low prices during recessions to support consumption. Vaca Muerta development economics require sustained commodity price strength to justify capital deployment, making investment cycles highly procyclical.
Moderate direct exposure to US rates through $4-5B in dollar-denominated debt, where rising rates increase servicing costs. However, Argentine country risk premium (typically 1,000-2,000 bps over UST) dominates borrowing costs rather than base rates. Higher US rates strengthen dollar vs peso, creating translation headwinds on local currency costs but benefiting dollar-linked oil revenues. Vaca Muerta project IRRs are sensitive to discount rates—rising rates reduce NPV of long-dated shale development.
Argentine sovereign risk and political instability: Government intervention in pricing, export restrictions, windfall taxes, and potential renationalization create unpredictable operating environment
Currency devaluation and hyperinflation: Peso volatility creates earnings translation risk, erodes local purchasing power, and complicates long-term capital planning for Vaca Muerta development
Energy transition and stranded asset risk: Vaca Muerta shale reserves require 20+ year development horizons; global decarbonization could strand undeveloped acreage before economic recovery
value/special situations - Attracts contrarian investors betting on Argentine political normalization, Vaca Muerta development upside, or currency stabilization. Deep value play trading at 1.0x sales and 1.3x book despite significant reserve base. High-risk/high-reward profile appeals to emerging market specialists and distressed debt investors. Not suitable for ESG-focused or risk-averse capital given governance concerns and sovereign risk.
Trend
+5.9% vs SMA 50 · +24.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $26.2T $25.6T–$26.8T | — | $661.51 | — | ±12% | High5 |
FY2026(current) | $29.2T $29.0T–$29.3T | ▲ +11.3% | $8263.26 | ▲ +1149.2% | ±44% | High5 |
FY2027 | $29.2T $28.3T–$30.0T | ▲ +0.0% | $9159.73 | ▲ +10.8% | ±6% | High6 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
YPF News
About
YPF S.A. is a vertically integrated, majority state-owned Argentine energy company, engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, and the transportation, refining, and marketing of gas and petroleum products.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YPF◀ | $43.66 | -1.15% | $17.1B | — | +4825.4% | -451.8% | 1500 |
| $404.35 | -3.20% | $2.1T | 30.5 | +3296.8% | 4510.0% | 1500 | |
| $132.58 | -6.05% | $307.9B | 20.7 | -44.8% | 1012.0% | 1500 | |
| $88.38 | -2.58% | $303.7B | 13.6 | +318.8% | 1510.7% | 1500 | |
| $148.08 | -1.13% | $282.6B | 21.0 | +597.3% | 2564.4% | 1500 | |
| $181.58 | -1.83% | $281.6B | 26.9 | +862.9% | 1745.9% | 1500 | |
| $183.40 | -0.23% | $256.1B | 16.8 | +213.3% | 1482.4% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.31% | — | 21.6 | +1438.5% | 1767.6% | 1500 |