Monthly parcel volume growth rates and market share trends vs. competitors (SF Express, YTO, STO, Yunda)
Unit economics: average selling price per parcel (currently RMB 1.2-1.4) vs. unit cost trends driven by fuel, labor, sorting automation
E-commerce GMV growth from Alibaba (Taobao/Tmall), JD.com, Pinduoduo which drive 75-80% of express delivery volumes
Regulatory developments: antitrust enforcement on e-commerce platforms, labor regulations affecting gig economy contractors
moderate-high - Express delivery volumes correlate strongly with consumer discretionary spending and e-commerce penetration. China retail sales growth directly impacts parcel volumes with 1.2-1.5x multiplier effect (e-commerce growing faster than offline retail). However, structural tailwinds (online penetration increasing from 27% to estimated 35-40% by 2028) provide growth floor even during economic slowdowns. Industrial production matters less than consumer-facing metrics given 85%+ exposure to B2C e-commerce vs. B2B freight.
Low direct sensitivity to US rates given RMB-denominated operations and minimal USD debt. China domestic rates matter more: PBOC easing supports consumer spending and e-commerce growth. However, valuation multiples compress when US rates rise as investors rotate from China growth stocks to US fixed income. Financing costs minimal given 0.19x debt/equity and strong FCF generation ($5.5B annually) funding capex internally.
Regulatory intervention: Chinese government crackdowns on platform economy monopolies, labor practices affecting gig workers, or mandated price floors could compress margins. Precedent: 2021 antitrust actions reduced e-commerce platform growth rates 30-40%.
Automation displacement: Fully autonomous sorting/delivery could commoditize network advantages if technology becomes universally accessible, though ZTO's scale provides 3-5 year lead in deployment capital.
Price wars: Competitors (SF Express premium positioning, YTO/STO/Yunda mid-market) may sacrifice margins for volume share, compressing industry pricing. Historical precedent: 2019-2020 price competition reduced average revenue per parcel 8-12%.
growth - Investors seek exposure to China e-commerce structural growth (online penetration runway) and operating leverage from volume scale. 27.4% FCF yield attracts value-oriented growth investors. Recent 25-34% returns over 3-12 months indicate momentum factor appeal. Dividend yield ~2-3% provides income component but not primary attraction. Profile: long-only growth funds, China/Asia specialists, emerging market allocators seeking quality names with defendable moats.
Trend
-2.6% vs SMA 50 · +14.7% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $293.4B $282.0B–$311.4B | — | $77.30 | — | ±6% | High7 |
FY2024 | $43.0B $42.6B–$43.4B | ▼ -85.4% | $11.77 | ▼ -84.8% | ±7% | High13 |
FY2025 | $48.6B $48.2B–$48.7B | ▲ +13.0% | $11.38 | ▼ -3.4% | ±5% | High14 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
ZTO News
About
zto express is a leading express delivery company in china and one of the largest express delivery companies globally, in terms of total parcel volume in 2015, according to the iresearch report. zto provides express delivery service as well as other value-added logistics services through its extensive and reliable nationwide network in china covering over 96% of china’s cities and counties as of december 31, 2016. zto is both a key enabler and a direct beneficiary of china’s fast-growing e-commerce market, and has established itself as one of the largest express delivery service providers for millions of online merchants and consumers transacting on leading chinese e-commerce platforms, such as alibaba and jd.com. globally, zto provides delivery services in key overseas markets through its business partners as it expands coverage of international express delivery by collaborating with international industry players.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZTO◀ | $23.74 | -3.24% | $18.9B | 14.1 | +786.0% | 1849.5% | 1500 |
| $404.35 | -3.20% | $2.1T | 30.5 | +3296.8% | 4510.0% | 1500 | |
| $132.58 | -6.05% | $307.9B | 20.7 | -44.8% | 1012.0% | 1500 | |
| $88.38 | -2.58% | $303.7B | 13.6 | +318.8% | 1510.7% | 1500 | |
| $148.08 | -1.13% | $282.6B | 21.0 | +597.3% | 2564.4% | 1500 | |
| $181.58 | -1.83% | $281.6B | 26.9 | +862.9% | 1745.9% | 1500 | |
| $183.40 | -0.23% | $256.1B | 16.8 | +213.3% | 1482.4% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.61% | — | 20.5 | +861.5% | 2096.4% | 1500 |