Monte Carlo Projection
1,000 simulated market scenarios showing the range of possible outcomes for your client's portfolio over time.
Parameters
Return assumptions
Probability of Success
78%
of paths reach $1.00M in 20yrs
Probability of Net Loss
0.0%
end below $250K starting value
Probability of Ruin
0.00%
portfolio depleted to zero
Median Ending Value
$1.56M
50th percentile outcome
Median Breakeven Year
Yr 14
50th percentile reaches goal in yr 14
Additional Monthly Savings Needed
On Track
Current plan reaches goal at median
Outcome Range
Ending Value at Year 20
| Scenario | Ending Value | vs Goal |
|---|---|---|
| Best Case (90th) | $3.13M | +$2.13M |
| Good Case (75th) | $2.23M | +$1.23M |
| Median (50th) | $1.56M | +$559K |
| Poor Case (25th) | $1.07M | +$72K |
| Worst Case (10th) | $769K | $-231296 |
Monthly Savings Required by Confidence Level
Uses return adjusted by z-score to approximate each success probability.
| Success Target | Effective Return Used | Required Monthly PMT | Add'l Savings Needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% (Median) | 7.0% | $0/mo | On Track |
| 75% Confidence | -3.1% | $5K/mo | +$4K/mo |
| 90% Confidence | -12.2% | $11K/mo | +$10K/mo |
Current contribution: $1K/mo. Confidence levels use adjusted expected returns (nominal − z × vol).
Goal Tracker
Ahead of PlanCurrent Value
$250,000
Goal Target
$1,000,000
Projected at Goal
$1,530,611
153.06% of target
Years Remaining
20.0
240 months
Current Monthly
$1,000
Required Monthly
$0
On pace
Sustainable Withdrawal Analysis
Inflation-adjusted · Trinity-style sequence simulationWithdrawal Rate
Years
Inflation
Starting Balance
$1,559,441
Annual Withdrawal
$62,378
$5,198 / month
Success Rate
69.10%
over 30 years
Median Ending Balance
$1,537,042
P10: $0
Maximum Sustainable Withdrawal by Confidence Level
| Target Success | Max Annual Withdrawal | Implied Rate | Monthly Income |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | … | … | … |
| 90% | … | … | … |
| 95% | … | … | … |
| 99% | … | … | … |
Trinity-study style simulation. 3000 paths per scenario, 30-year horizon, withdrawals indexed to 3% inflation. Past return assumptions used; not investment advice.
Monte Carlo simulation uses 1,000 paths with log-normal monthly returns. Assumes constant expected return and volatility. Results are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.