AFL
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move+0.59%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 49Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
115.48
Open
115.69
Day Range114.42 – 116.68
114.42
116.68
52W Range96.95 – 119.32
96.95
119.32
86% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
2.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
13.3x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.02%
Beta
0.70
Low vol
Performance
1D
-0.44%
5D
-1.22%
1M
+2.17%
3M
-2.71%
6M
-0.61%
YTD
+2.57%
1Y
+7.13%
Best: 1Y (+7.13%)Worst: 3M (-2.71%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +6% YoY · 48% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 13x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.0 (low) · FCF $5.72/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$59.12B
Revenue TTM$18.22B
Net Income TTM$4.64B
Free Cash Flow$2.93B
Gross Margin47.8%
Net Margin25.4%
Operating Margin31.0%
Return on Equity17.2%
Return on Assets3.9%
Debt / Equity0.35
Current Ratio0.00
EPS TTM$9.04
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

USD/JPY exchange rate movements (70% of earnings from Japan, reported in dollars - yen weakness reduces translated earnings)

Japanese government bond yields and credit spreads (affects $100B+ Japan portfolio returns and hedge costs)

U.S. sales growth and persistency rates in core products (accident, hospital indemnity, critical illness)

Benefit ratio trends in both segments (target 45-50% in U.S., 65-70% in Japan)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Supplemental insurance exhibits counter-cyclical characteristics as economic uncertainty increases demand for income protection products. Premium revenue is highly recurring with 85-90% persistency, insulating top-line from GDP fluctuations. However, severe recessions can pressure sales growth as employers reduce headcount and limit worksite access. Japan's aging demographics provide structural tailwind regardless of economic cycle.

Interest Rates

Rising U.S. and Japanese interest rates are highly positive for Aflac's economics. Higher yields increase net investment income on the $140B+ portfolio (60% Japan, 40% U.S.) as securities mature and reinvest at higher rates. The portfolio has 10-12 year duration, so rate increases flow through gradually. Additionally, rising rates reduce the present value of future policy liabilities, improving statutory capital ratios. However, Aflac hedges 50-70% of yen-denominated earnings back to dollars using currency forwards, and higher U.S. rates relative to Japan increase hedging costs, partially offsetting investment income gains.

Key Risks

Secular shift toward high-deductible health plans and Medicare Advantage could reduce demand for supplemental products if comprehensive coverage improves

Japan's declining working-age population (shrinking 0.5-1.0% annually) pressures new sales growth despite aging demographics increasing claims awareness

Regulatory changes in Japan including potential restrictions on cancer insurance sales practices or commission structures

Investor Profile

dividend - Aflac has increased dividends for 41 consecutive years (Dividend Aristocrat status) with 2.3% current yield, attracting income-focused investors. The stock also appeals to value investors given consistent ROE (13-15%), strong free cash flow generation ($2.7B annually), and modest valuation (11.3x EV/EBITDA). Low earnings volatility and defensive characteristics attract risk-averse institutional investors seeking stable compounders.

Watch on Earnings
USD/JPY spot exchange rate and 12-month forward points10-year Japanese government bond yield (JGB) and U.S. Treasury yield spreadU.S. unemployment rate as proxy for worksite access and sales productivityJapan Solvency Margin Ratio (SMR) regulatory capital position
Health Radar
3 strong3 concern
46/100
Liquidity
0.00Concern
Leverage
0.35Strong
Coverage
24.5xStrong
ROE
17.2%Strong
ROIC
3.9%Concern
Cash
$6.2BConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE19 analysts
HOLD
-1.9%downside to target
L $99.00
Med $114.00consensus
H $120.00
Buy
316%
Hold
1263%
Sell
421%
3 Buy (16%)12 Hold (63%)4 Sell (21%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
0 of 5 signals bullish
1/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 49 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.00 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 13, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 7, 2026
In 87 days
PDividend PaymentAug 14, 2026
In 94 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 15.5%

+3.9% vs SMA 50 · +19.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI49.3
Neutral territory
MACD+0.50
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$119.3+2.7%
Current
$116.2
EMA 50
$112.5-3.2%
EMA 200
$97.04-16.5%
52W Low
$96.95-16.5%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week high
$96.9586th %ile$119.3
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:2
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.4M
Recent Vol (5D)
2.2M-9%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 11 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$17.3B
$17.2B$17.5B
$7.27
±1%
High11
FY2025
$17.7B
$17.5B$17.8B
+2.1%$7.62+4.7%
±1%
High10
FY2026(current)
$16.9B
$16.6B$17.0B
-4.5%$7.09-6.9%
±2%
High8
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryAFL
Last 8Q
+9.2%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates rising
+14%
Q3'24
+28%
Q4'24
-4%
Q1'25
-1%
Q2'25
+5%
Q3'25
+41%
Q4'25
-7%
Q1'26
-2%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $833K sold · 30d window
Moskowitz Joseph LDir
$68K
May 8
SELL
Hosoda MiwakoDir
$28K
May 6
SELL
Lake Charles D IiChairman & Rep…
$737K
May 5
SELL
Japan Post Holdings…10 Percent Own…
$8.5M
Apr 9
SELL
Japan Post Holdings…10 Percent Own…
$1.3M
Apr 9
SELL
Japan Post Holdings…10 Percent Own…
$2.4M
Apr 8
SELL
Financials
Dividends2.02% yield
+12.0% avg annual growth
Annual Yield2.02%
Quarterly Div.$0.6100
Est. Annual / Share$2.44
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.
52.0M
2
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
4.6M
3
Legal & General Group Plc
3.8M
4
UBS Group AG
2.7M
5
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
2.7M
6
VANGUARD FIDUCIARY TRUST CO
2.6M
7
Guinness Asset Management LTD
2.2M
8
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\
2.1M
News & Activity

AFL News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

over 50 million people worldwide have chosen aflac because of our commitment to providing customers with the confidence that comes from knowing they have assistance in being prepared for whatever life may bring. with aflac, whether you're a large business or a small one, you can provide your employees with the kind of benefits they’d expect from a bigger company, helping your business stand out from the crowd. hundreds of thousands of businesses across the united states already make aflac available to their employees—at no direct cost to their company. choose from a wide range of products that can help your employees with health events—from accidents, to disability, to cancer, to life insurance. your employees enjoy benefits from aflac, all employee-paid. please check out aflac.com for more information.

CEO
Daniel Amos
Steven Kent BeaverExecutive Vice President & CFO of Aflac Life Insurance Japan
Max Kristian BrodenSenior EVP & CFO
Bradley L. KnoxSenior Vice President & Counsel of Federal Relations
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
AFL
$116.16-0.44%$58.8B12.8-883.5%2090.8%1506
$304.88-0.70%$803.9B14.2+330.7%2039.3%1501
$326.42+1.59%$620.8B27.9+1134.0%5014.5%1499
$499.81-1.09%$439.9B28.5+1641.6%4564.7%1492
$50.78-1.48%$358.7B11.6-45.1%1592.6%1500
$191.90+1.51%$301.4B16.5+1147.7%1466.4%1523
$945.90+0.89%$278.7B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1521
Sector avg+0.04%18.2+455.3%2591.6%1506