AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES (AFSIA)

Thursday

4:12 AM

Thesis: Recent operational challenges and rising claims costs have led to a deterioration in sentiment, overshadowing potential growth from technological investments.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2016	FY2017
Revenue	$5.5B	$6.0B
Rev. Growth	+18.8%	+7.7%
EPS	$2375.56	$-1775.07
EPS Growth	-10.3%	-175%
P/E	0.0×	—

What Moves the Stock

1Changes in underwriting profitability driven by loss ratios
2Regulatory developments affecting the insurance industry
3Market share gains in targeted segments, particularly in small business insurance
4Fluctuations in reinsurance costs and availability
5Commercial lines insurance (approx. 70%)
6Personal lines insurance (approx. 20%)
7Reinsurance and other services (approx. 10%)
8Digital transformation in insurance

FY2017 Snapshot

Revenue: $6.0B
Rev. Growth: +7.7%
Gross Margin: 0.1%
Op. Margin: -0.0%
Net Margin: -5.9%
Net Income: $-349M
NI Growth: -185%
EPS: $-1775.07
1Y Return: +5.5%

AFSIA Chart

My Notes

"Management acknowledged, 'While we are investing in technology, the immediate impact of rising claims cannot be ignored.'"
Moat: AmTrust's focus on niche markets provides a moderate moat, but it faces pressure from larger competitors with greater resources.
value - Investors may be drawn to AmTrust for its low valuation metrics despite operational challenges.
AmTrust's profitability is affected by interest rates as they influence investment income from premiums held in reserves.
Watch on earnings: Loss ratio, Combined ratio, Market share in small business insurance.

One Sentence Summary:

AmTrust Financial Services: the story is balanced — changes in underwriting profitability driven by loss ratios.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

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