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Thesis: Alico: the risks are mounting — Citrus greening disease (HLB) has no cure and continues to reduce Florida production capacity - industry output down…
★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $5M — -53.2% growth in a single year.
What Could Go Wrong
1Citrus greening disease (HLB) has no cure and continues to reduce Florida production capacity - industry output down 70%+ from peak, with ongoing risk of further deterioration requiring continuous replanting investments
2Climate change increasing frequency/severity of hurricanes and weather volatility in Florida, threatening both citrus crops and cattle operations
3Long-term shift in consumer preferences away from orange juice toward other beverages, with US per-capita consumption declining over 40% since 2000
4Brazilian and Mexican citrus competition in global markets, with lower production costs potentially pressuring US pricing
5Consolidation among citrus processors (Tropicana, Minute Maid, Florida's Natural) gives buyers negotiating leverage over growers like Alico
6Larger integrated agricultural operators with superior disease management technology and genetics research capabilities
7Alternative protein trends and plant-based meat substitutes potentially reducing long-term beef demand
8Negative profitability metrics (ROE -127%, ROA -73%) indicate recent operational losses, likely from disease-related crop failures and replanting costs