10-Year Free Cash Flow Projections(showing years 1, 3, 5, 7, 10)
| Year | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | Year 7 | Year 10 |
|---|
| Revenue | $22.9B | $23.8B | $24.3B | $25.7B | $28.1B |
| EBIT | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.7B | $3.2B |
| Tax | $435M | $451M | $489M | $562M | $655M |
| NOPAT | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| + Depreciation | $947M | $982M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| - Capex | $792M | $821M | $838M | $889M | $972M |
| - Δ NWC | $123M | $7M | $11M | $12M | $13M |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.7B |
| Discount Factor | 0.948 | 0.852 | 0.765 | 0.687 | 0.585 |
| Present Value | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B |
FCF Formula: Free Cash Flow = NOPAT + Depreciation - Capex - Change in Net Working Capital
Sensitivity AnalysisPrice per Share
| WACC ↓ / Growth → | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
|---|
| 3.50% | $247.36 | $235.47 | $224.15 | $213.36 | $203.07 |
| 4.50% | $206.99 | $235.47 | $224.15 | $213.36 | $203.07 |
| 5.50% | $157.33 | $169.78 | $187.21 | $213.36 | $203.07 |
| 6.50% | $126.54 | $133.21 | $141.79 | $153.23 | $169.24 |
| 7.50% | $104.72 | $108.73 | $113.64 | $119.77 | $127.66 |
How to read: This table shows how the valuation changes with different WACC (discount rate) and terminal growth rate assumptions. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Key Assumptions & Drivers• Consumer Cyclical Sector
Growth Assumptions (Select Years)
Year 1 Revenue Growth52.67%
Year 3 Revenue Growth2.04%
Year 5 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 7 Revenue Growth3.00%
Year 10 Revenue Growth3.00%
Terminal Growth Rate3.00%
Margin & Efficiency
Current EBIT Margin9.18%
Terminal EBIT Margin12.00%
Tax Rate20.67%
Historical Capex / Rev3.46%
NWC / Revenue1.55%
Key Drivers: Revenue growth, operating margin expansion, capex efficiency, and working capital management are the primary drivers of cash flow generation. Terminal value assumptions significantly impact final valuation.
Institutional-Grade Methodology
Actual Company Data: Revenue, EBIT, Capex, NWC, Tax Rate, Interest Expense, Beta
Market Assumptions: Risk-free: 4.5% (10Y), MRP: 4.5% (Damodaran 2026), Exit: 20x EV/EBITDA (Consumer Cyclical sector)
This DCF model is for informational purposes only. Projections are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.