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ARLO(ARLO)
ARLO
Next earnings: Aug 6, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bearish Setup2↓
PRICE
Prev Close
12.71
Open
12.53
Day Range12.13 – 12.68
12.13
12.68
52W Range11.05 – 19.94
11.05
19.94
14% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
44.0x
Premium valuation
EPS (TTM)
—
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.62
High vol
Performance
1D
+0.55%5D↓
-21.15%1M
-8.69%3M↑
+11.30%6M
-10.11%YTD
-9.15%1Y
-7.50%Best: 3M (+11.30%)Worst: 5D (-21.15%)
Quick Read
Trend—Insufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +11% YoY · 45% gross marginValuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 44x vs ~20x sectorHealth
STRONG
CR 1.5 · FCF $0.60/shBullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.34B
Revenue TTM$560.61M
Net Income TTM$30.64M
Free Cash Flow$64.22M
Gross Margin45.1%
Net Margin5.5%
Operating Margin2.7%
Return on Equity22.9%
Return on Assets8.5%
Debt / Equity0.04
Current Ratio1.52
EPS TTM$0.29
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock
Arlo Secure subscriber net additions and churn rates - recurring revenue growth is the primary valuation driver
Subscription ARPU trends - upselling to higher-tier plans (Secure Plus at $15/month vs base $3/month) drives margin expansion
Hardware unit sales and ASP (average selling price) - camera refresh cycles and new product launches (e.g., Essential vs Pro series)
Gross margin trajectory - component cost pressures (semiconductors, image sensors) vs pricing power and subscription mix shift
Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle
moderate-high - Consumer discretionary purchase. Camera systems ($100-500 per device) are deferrable during economic uncertainty. Housing market activity drives new installations (homeowners securing new properties). Retail sales trends correlate with hardware demand, while subscription retention is stickier but vulnerable to budget cuts during recessions. 4.0% revenue growth suggests mature market with limited organic expansion.
Interest Rates
Rising rates negatively impact through multiple channels: (1) Higher mortgage rates reduce home sales and new security system installations, (2) Consumer financing costs increase for multi-camera bundles, (3) Valuation multiple compression for unprofitable growth companies (199.5x EV/EBITDA is unsustainable without rate-driven multiple expansion), (4) Increased competition for discretionary wallet share as savings rates rise. Low debt (0.06 D/E) means minimal direct financing cost impact.
Key Risks
Platform commoditization - Amazon/Google can bundle security cameras into Alexa/Nest ecosystems at cost, leveraging adjacent revenue streams (Prime, Search ads). Arlo lacks comparable ecosystem moats.
Privacy regulation - Stricter data protection laws (GDPR-style) could increase compliance costs for cloud video storage and limit AI feature development (facial recognition bans in some jurisdictions).
Technology disruption - Shift toward professional monitoring services (ADT, Vivint) offering integrated hardware+service bundles, or emergence of local-storage-only solutions reducing cloud subscription demand.
Investor Profile
growth - Investors betting on subscription revenue inflection and path to profitability. Negative margins and high EV/EBITDA (199.5x) indicate market pricing future earnings power rather than current fundamentals. Recent underperformance (-31.8% over 6 months) suggests momentum investors have exited, leaving value-oriented growth investors seeking turnaround catalyst. 3.9% FCF yield on negative FCF indicates market skepticism about near-term cash generation.
Watch on Earnings
Monthly paid subscriber count and net retention rate - indicates subscription business healthSubscription revenue growth rate vs hardware revenue growth - business model transition progressBlended gross margin trend - mix shift toward higher-margin subscriptions should drive expansionCustomer acquisition cost (CAC) vs lifetime value (LTV) - unit economics sustainability
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
59/100Liquidity
1.52Watch
Leverage
0.04Strong
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
22.9%Strong
ROIC
8.3%Watch
Cash
$146MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE10 analysts
BUY
▲ +54.2%upside to target
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
●
✗RSI RangeRSI 36 — Bearish momentum
Volume
●
✗Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
●
✓Last EarningsBeat estimates
●
✓Analyst ConsensusBuy
●
✓LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.52 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 10, 2026
In 117 days
FinancialsFull statements →
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →Trend
▼ DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 2.6%
-12.1% vs SMA 50 · -14.3% vs SMA 200
Momentum
RSI35.6Momentum fading
MACD-0.32Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$19.94+61.9%
EMA 200
$14.37+16.6%
EMA 50
$14.34+16.4%
Current
$12.32
52W Low
$11.05-10.3%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$11.0514th %ile$19.94
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution PressureHeavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:5
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.3M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.9M+45%
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Earnings & Analysts
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $516.7M $511.5M–$520.8M | — | -$0.23 | — | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2024 | $510.7M $509.9M–$511.4M | ▼ -1.2% | $0.41 | — | ±2% | Moderate4 |
FY2025 | $523.6M $519.0M–$527.6M | ▲ +2.5% | $0.66 | ▲ +61.4% | ±2% | Moderate4 |
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 5 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryARLO
Last 8Q
+18.0%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quarters↑ Estimates rising+11%
Q3'24
+10%
Q4'24
—
Q1'25
+25%
Q2'25
+6%
Q3'25
+7%
Q4'25
+38%
Q1'26
+47%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $1.4M sold · 30d window
Binder Kurtis JosephCFO
$1.0M
May 8
SELL
Binder Kurtis JosephCFO
$380K
Apr 17
SELL
Binder Kurtis JosephCFO
$350K
Apr 6
SELL
Busse BrianGENERAL COUNSEL
$352K
Mar 12
SELL
Binder Kurtis JosephCFO
$2.5M
Mar 12
SELL
Mcrae Matthew BlakeDir
$2.1M
Mar 12
SELL
Financials
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
1
BlackRock, Inc.
17.0M▲2
WASATCH ADVISORS LP
5.4M▲3
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/
2.3M▼4
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC
2.0M▼5
EMERALD ADVISERS, LLC
2.0M▼6
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
1.8M▼7
Nuveen, LLC
1.5M▲8
Herald Investment Management Ltd
1.4M▲News & Activity
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About
we are a passionate and diverse group of thought leaders, creators, and developers across all disciplines dedicated to changing how people protect and connect with the people and things they love. arlo is an award-winning, market leader in the smart home iot category that is focused on bringing together deep expertise in product design, wireless connectivity and rf engineering, cloud infrastructure and leading-edge ai capabilities to create a seamless smart home experience for arlo users that's easy to setup and a joy to interact with every day.
Scott McManigalSenior Vice President of Design & Experience
Antoinette SwitzerSenior Vice President of Worldwide Human Resources
Lily KnowlesSenior Vice President of Marketing & Customer Care
Peers— Technology(7 companies)
Screen sector →| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARLO◀ | $12.32 | +0.55% | $1.3B | — | +360.4% | 282.0% | 1500 |
| $225.32 | -4.42% | $5.5T | 45.6 | +6547.4% | 5560.3% | 1502 | |
| $300.23 | +0.68% | $4.4T | 36.0 | +642.6% | 2691.5% | 1482 | |
| $421.92 | +3.05% | $3.1T | 25.0 | +1493.2% | 3614.6% | 1460 | |
| $425.19 | -3.32% | $2.0T | 80.7 | +2387.4% | 3619.8% | 1500 | |
| $724.66 | -6.62% | $817.2B | 33.8 | +4885.1% | 2284.5% | 1532 | |
| $424.10 | -5.69% | $691.5B | 138.6 | +3433.8% | 1251.5% | 1516 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.25% | — | 60.0 | +2821.4% | 2757.7% | 1499 |