AVAH
Earnings in 8 days · May 14, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-2.41%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 44Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
6.63
Open
6.62
Day Range6.42 – 6.62
6.42
6.62
52W Range3.73 – 10.32
3.73
10.32
42% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
925.5K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
6.2x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.13
Market-like
Performance
1D
-2.41%
5D
-1.37%
1M
-0.31%
3M
-15.97%
6M
-29.75%
YTD
-20.81%
1Y
+36.50%
Best: 1Y (+36.50%)Worst: 6M (-29.75%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +20% YoY
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 6x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.3 · FCF $0.62/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.41B
Revenue TTM$2.43B
Net Income TTM$225.03M
Free Cash Flow$125.86M
Gross Margin33.1%
Net Margin9.2%
Operating Margin10.9%
Return on Equity953.1%
Return on Assets11.1%
Debt / Equity6.91
Current Ratio1.32
EPS TTM$1.11
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Nurse staffing levels and wage inflation: Ability to recruit/retain caregivers in tight labor markets directly impacts billable hours and overtime costs

State Medicaid rate adjustments: Annual rate increases in key states (Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania) that represent 40%+ of revenue

Same-store census growth: Patient admissions and retention in high-acuity pediatric private duty segment with $150K+ annual revenue per patient

Managed care contract renewals: Negotiations with major payers (UnitedHealth, Anthem, Centene) affecting 20% of revenue mix

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Home healthcare demand is non-discretionary and driven by chronic disease prevalence, aging demographics, and hospital discharge patterns rather than GDP growth. Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement provides revenue stability through economic cycles. However, state budget pressures during recessions can delay Medicaid rate increases, and unemployment spikes may temporarily improve nurse labor supply.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs on the company's $800M+ debt load (primarily variable-rate term loans), directly pressuring free cash flow and limiting M&A capacity. Higher rates also compress valuation multiples for healthcare services stocks trading at 10-12x EV/EBITDA. Conversely, rate cuts improve refinancing opportunities and reduce annual interest expense by $5-10M per 100bps decrease.

Key Risks

Medicaid reimbursement pressure: State budget constraints and shift to managed care models create ongoing rate pressure, with 15+ states implementing rate freezes or cuts in recent years

Chronic nurse shortage: Structural labor supply constraints in nursing profession (aging workforce, limited nursing school capacity) drive sustained wage inflation of 4-6% annually, outpacing reimbursement growth

Regulatory complexity: Operating across 33 states requires managing disparate licensing requirements, Medicaid programs, and compliance standards, with penalties for violations reaching $10M+ annually

Investor Profile

value - Stock trades at 0.7x P/S and 10.2x EV/EBITDA, below healthcare services peers at 1.2x P/S and 13x EV/EBITDA, attracting investors betting on operational turnaround, margin expansion from labor cost stabilization, and deleveraging. The 45% one-year return reflects recovery from COVID-era staffing disruptions, but negative net margin and high leverage deter growth investors. Recent 92% EPS growth suggests inflection point, appealing to deep-value funds focused on healthcare services consolidation.

Watch on Earnings
Monthly nurse staffing levels and turnover rates by region (leading indicator of revenue capacity)State Medicaid rate increase announcements in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania (40% of revenue exposure)Healthcare labor cost indices and nursing wage inflation trends (BLS data)Medicare home health reimbursement rate updates (annual CMS rule changes affecting 15% of revenue)
Health Radar
2 strong2 watch2 concern
42/100
Liquidity
1.32Watch
Leverage
6.91Concern
Coverage
1.9xConcern
ROE
953.1%Strong
ROIC
16.3%Strong
Cash
$193MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE11 analysts
HOLD
+70.0%upside to target
L $10.00
Med $11.00consensus
H $13.00
Buy
545%
Hold
545%
Sell
19%
5 Buy (45%)5 Hold (45%)1 Sell (10%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 44 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.32
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 117 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 43.3%

-28.6% vs SMA 50 · +2.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI44.2
Momentum fading
MACD-0.24
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$10.32+59.5%
EMA 50
$8.76+35.3%
Current
$6.47
EMA 200
$6.33-2.2%
52W Low
$3.73-42.3%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$3.7342th %ile$10.32
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:4
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)551K
Recent Vol (5D)
343K-38%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 7 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$2.0B
$1.9B$2.0B
-$0.65
±1%
Moderate3
FY2025
$2.0B
$2.0B$2.0B
+2.8%$0.01
±50%
High6
FY2026(current)
$2.4B
$2.4B$2.5B
+20.3%$0.58+4822.7%
±5%
High7
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 8 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryAVAH
Last 8Q
+285.9%avg beat
Beat 8 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+40%
Q2'24
+150%
Q3'24
+254%
Q4'24
+1179%
Q1'25
+217%
Q2'25
+350%
Q3'25
+87%
Q4'25
+11%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
UBSSell → Neutral
Aug 19
UPGRADE
BarclaysOverweight
Aug 19
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesStrong Buy → Outperform
Aug 11
UPGRADE
Credit SuisseNeutral
Nov 17
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Shaner JeffCEO
$917K
Feb 17
SELL
Shaner JeffCEO
$1.2M
Feb 18
SELL
Shaner JeffCEO
$1.2M
Feb 19
SELL
Cunningham Patrick …Chief Complian…
$98K
Feb 17
SELL
Cunningham Patrick …Chief Complian…
$133K
Feb 18
SELL
Cunningham Patrick …Chief Complian…
$133K
Feb 19
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
2.2M
2
EMERALD ADVISERS, LLC
1.7M
3
EMERALD MUTUAL FUND ADVISERS TRUST
976K
4
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
952K
5
Hillsdale Investment Management Inc.
927K
6
UBS Group AG
255K
7
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
226K
8
TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS
159K
News & Activity

AVAH News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Based in Atlanta, Georgia, Aveanna is a leading, diversified home care platform focused on providing care to medically complex, high-cost patient populations. Aveanna directly addresses the most pressing challenges facing the U.S. healthcare system by providing safe, high-quality care in the home, the lower cost care setting preferred by patients.

Industry
Dental Laboratories
Jeffrey ShanerPresident, CEO & Director
Deborah StewartSenior Vice President & Principal Accounting Officer
Jim MelanconSenior Vice President of Government Affairs
PeersHealth Care(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
AVAH
$6.47-2.41%$1.4B5.9+2018.7%924.8%1500
$68.78-0.30%$13.3B+12626.1%-14525.8%1500
$89.52-1.81%$11.7B+3288.2%-4239.0%1500
$502.47-3.12%$11.5B+43205.3%-3008.0%1500
$223.06-0.29%$11.4B+6554.5%-2868.8%1500
$74.93-1.91%$10.5B51.9+2325815.3%-19.7%1500
$175.95-3.34%$10.3B28.0+1871.5%680.1%1500
Sector avg-1.88%28.6+342197.1%-3293.8%1500