BBAI
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move-0.72%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 59Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
4.17
Open
4.18
Day Range3.98 – 4.18
3.98
4.18
52W Range2.96 – 9.39
2.96
9.39
18% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
40.4M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-5.0x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
0.11
Low vol
Performance
1D
-0.72%
5D
+10.11%
1M
+17.95%
3M
+1.47%
6M
-32.46%
YTD
-23.33%
1Y
+28.97%
Best: 1Y (+28.97%)Worst: 6M (-32.46%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -20% YoY
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
MODERATE
CR 6.1 · FCF negative
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.48B
Revenue TTM$127.35M
Net Income TTM-$288.69M
Free Cash Flow-$56.35M
Gross Margin25.8%
Net Margin-226.7%
Operating Margin-68.3%
Return on Equity-50.7%
Return on Assets-33.5%
Debt / Equity0.03
Current Ratio6.08
EPS TTM$-0.61
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Major contract awards from DoD, DIA, NGA, or other Three-Letter Agencies (TLAs) - particularly IDIQ vehicles or prime positions on large programs

Quarterly revenue growth acceleration above low-single-digits, signaling traction in pipeline conversion

Path to profitability milestones - gross margin expansion toward 35%+ and operating expense leverage demonstrating unit economics

Strategic partnerships or M&A activity with larger defense primes (Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon) for subcontract flow

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

low - Revenue is predominantly derived from non-discretionary defense and intelligence budgets, which are multi-year appropriations largely insulated from GDP fluctuations. However, budget sequestration risk or debt ceiling crises can delay contract awards and slow payment cycles. Commercial revenue (<15% of mix) has moderate cyclicality tied to corporate IT spending.

Interest Rates

Rising rates create moderate headwinds through two channels: (1) Higher discount rates compress valuation multiples for unprofitable growth companies, particularly impacting BBAI's 10.1x P/S multiple; (2) Increased financing costs if the company needs to raise capital to fund operations, though current 0.19x debt/equity and 3.13x current ratio provide near-term cushion. Government contract payment terms are unaffected by rates, but customer budget pressures can emerge if federal borrowing costs spike.

Key Risks

Government budget concentration risk - estimated 80%+ revenue from federal sources creates vulnerability to appropriations delays, continuing resolutions, and potential defense spending reallocation away from IT services toward hardware procurement

Competitive displacement by hyperscalers - AWS, Microsoft Azure Government, and Google Cloud are aggressively pursuing FedRAMP High and IL5/IL6 certifications, potentially commoditizing cloud-based AI/ML services that BigBear.ai currently provides at premium pricing

Talent retention in cleared workforce - competition for TS/SCI-cleared data scientists is intense, with attrition risk to higher-paying defense primes or Palantir, which could disrupt program execution

Investor Profile

growth/speculative - The stock appeals to investors seeking exposure to defense AI secular growth themes with high-risk/high-reward profiles. The combination of -186.8% net margins, -53.2% one-year return, and $1.5B market cap on $200M revenue attracts momentum traders during contract win catalysts and thematic investors betting on government IT modernization tailwinds. Not suitable for value or income investors given negative profitability and no dividend. Institutional ownership likely skewed toward venture capital-style tech funds rather than traditional defense sector investors.

Watch on Earnings
U.S. defense discretionary budget authority for RDT&E (Research, Development, Test & Evaluation) accounts - proxy for AI/ML spending appetiteFederal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury yield - impact valuation multiples for unprofitable growth stocks and government borrowing costsPalantir Technologies revenue growth and federal segment performance - bellwether for government AI spending trends and competitive intensityBigBear.ai quarterly bookings announcements and contract award press releases - leading indicators of revenue trajectory 6-12 months forward
Health Radar
2 strong1 watch3 concern
39/100
Liquidity
6.08Strong
Leverage
0.03Strong
Coverage
-6.5xConcern
ROE
-50.7%Concern
ROIC
-10.7%Concern
Cash
$87MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE3 analysts
HOLD
+44.9%upside to target
Buy
133%
Hold
267%
1 Buy (33%)2 Hold (67%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 59 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 6.08 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 10, 2026
In 96 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 31.5%

+9.9% vs SMA 50 · -24.8% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI59.3
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.11
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$9.39+126.8%
EMA 200
$5.00+20.7%
Current
$4.14
EMA 50
$3.97-4.1%
52W Low
$2.96-28.5%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$2.9618th %ile$9.39
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:7
Dist days:3
Edge:+4 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)147.4M
Recent Vol (5D)
95.2M-35%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 3 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$146.1M
$144.1M$148.3M
-$0.99
±2%
Low2
FY2024
$169.0M
$167.7M$169.6M
+15.6%-$0.75
±9%
Moderate3
FY2025
$133.7M
$131.9M$135.5M
-20.9%-$0.93
±9%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryBBAI
Last 8Q
-1.0%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
+43%
Q3'24
+29%
Q4'24
+20%
Q1'25
-67%
Q2'25
+14%
Q3'25
-17%
Q4'25
+20%
Q1'26
-50%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Cantor FitzgeraldOverweight → Neutral
Jan 7
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Braden Pamela JoyceDir
$320K
Mar 16
SELL
Hayes Dorothy DDir
$68K
Mar 6
SELL
Ricker Sean RaymondCFO
$35K
Dec 4
SELL
Hayes Dorothy DDir
$134K
Nov 18
SELL
Ricker Sean RaymondCFO
$11
Aug 26
SELL
Ricker Sean RaymondCFO
$64K
Aug 27
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
UBS Group AG
10.2M
2
Bank of New York Mellon Corp
1.3M
3
Nuveen, LLC
1.0M
4
Fiduciary Alliance LLC
679K
5
IMC-Chicago, LLC
452K
6
GM Advisory Group, Inc.
400K
7
PFG Investments, LLC
348K
8
Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc.
168K
News & Activity

BBAI News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

GigCapital4 is a Private-to-Public Equity (PPE)™ company, also known as a blank check company or special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), focusing on the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) and sustainable industries. It was sponsored by GigAcquisitions4, LLC, which was founded by GigFounders, LLC, each a member entity of GigCapital Global, and formed for the purpose of entering into a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, recapitalization, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses. The Company intends to focus on opportunities to capitalize on the ability of its management team, particularly its executive officers, to identify, acquire and operate a business with enterprise valuations larger than $750 million in the TMT and sustainable industries. In particular, it intends to target TMT and sustainable industry companies anywhere in the world that embrace today’s digital transformation and experience as a competitive advantage.

Industry
Software and Other Prerecorded Compact Disc, Tape, and Record Reproducing
PeersTechnology(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
BBAI
$4.14-0.72%$1.5B-1931.5%-23021.0%1500
$201.49-1.00%$4.8T39.8+6547.4%5560.3%1494
$284.18+2.66%$4.2T34.1+642.6%2691.5%1491
$411.38-0.54%$3.1T24.4+1493.2%3614.6%1477
$427.36+2.61%$2.0T81.1+2387.4%3619.8%1504
$672.98+11.06%$722.0B29.9+4885.1%2284.5%1536
$423.80+4.02%$579.2B115.7+3433.8%1251.5%1517
Sector avg+2.58%54.2+2494.0%-571.3%1503