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A normally quiet Atlanta neighborhood has suddenly found itself flooded with traffic early in the mo…

Net revenue retention rates and annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, indicating customer expansion and churn dynamics within the nonprofit vertical
Operating margin trajectory and free cash flow conversion, particularly as the company executes on cost optimization following debt refinancing
Customer acquisition metrics in mid-market and enterprise nonprofit segments, where competitive intensity from Salesforce.org and Microsoft Dynamics has increased
Payment processing transaction volumes and take rates, which correlate with overall charitable giving trends and donor engagement levels
moderate - Nonprofit software spending exhibits defensive characteristics as mission-critical systems remain prioritized even during budget constraints, but new customer acquisition and expansion sales correlate with charitable giving trends. During recessions, individual donations typically decline 5-10% while foundation endowment distributions lag equity market performance by 12-18 months. Educational institutions face enrollment pressures and tuition revenue volatility during economic downturns, potentially delaying software investments. However, existing subscription contracts provide revenue stability with typical 90%+ gross retention rates.
Rising interest rates create multiple headwinds: (1) Higher debt service costs on the company's substantial $1.4B+ debt load (Debt/Equity of 13.16x) directly compress net margins and FCF available for deleveraging; (2) Nonprofit endowment returns decline as bond portfolios reprice, reducing grantmaking budgets and software spending capacity; (3) Valuation multiples for high-leverage SaaS businesses contract as risk-free rates rise, pressuring the stock despite stable operations. The 0.2x EV/EBITDA ratio suggests significant debt burden relative to enterprise value.
Horizontal platform encroachment as Salesforce Nonprofit Cloud and Microsoft Cloud for Nonprofit gain vertical-specific functionality, potentially commoditizing Blackbaud's differentiation over 5-10 year horizon
Secular shift toward donor-advised funds and direct giving platforms (GoFundMe, Facebook Fundraisers) that bypass traditional nonprofit CRM systems, reducing payment processing volumes
Regulatory changes in data privacy (GDPR, state-level privacy laws) and charitable solicitation compliance that require continuous product investment to maintain regulatory adherence
value - The stock trades at distressed multiples (2.1x P/S, 0.2x EV/EBITDA) reflecting balance sheet concerns and revenue contraction, attracting deep value investors betting on operational turnaround and deleveraging. The 10.9% FCF yield appeals to credit-oriented equity investors analyzing debt paydown capacity. Recent 30% one-year decline and negative momentum deter growth investors despite software sector classification. Not suitable for dividend investors (likely minimal/no dividend given debt priorities) or risk-averse accounts given leverage profile.
Trend
-20.9% vs SMA 50 · -44.0% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $1.1B $1.1B–$1.1B | — | $0.41 | — | ±0% | Low2 |
FY2024 | $1.2B $1.2B–$1.2B | ▲ +3.0% | $4.06 | ▲ +879.1% | ±0% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $1.1B $1.1B–$1.1B | ▼ -2.7% | $4.41 | ▲ +8.8% | ±0% | Moderate4 |
A normally quiet Atlanta neighborhood has suddenly found itself flooded with traffic early in the mo…

blackbaud (nasdaq: blkb) is the world’s leading cloud software company powering social good. serving the entire social good community—nonprofits, foundations, corporations, education institutions, healthcare institutions and individual change agents—blackbaud connects and empowers organizations to increase their impact through software, services, expertise, and data intelligence. the blackbaud portfolio is tailored to the unique needs of vertical markets, with solutions for fundraising and crm, marketing, advocacy, peer-to-peer fundraising, corporate social responsibility, school management, ticketing, grantmaking, financial management, payment processing, and analytics. serving the industry for more than three decades, blackbaud is headquartered in charleston, south carolina and has operations in the united states, australia, canada, and the united kingdom.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BLKB◀ | $30.85 | -1.15% | $1.4B | 9.9 | -234.8% | — | 1500 |
| $225.32 | -4.42% | $5.5T | 45.6 | +6547.4% | 5560.3% | 1502 | |
| $300.23 | +0.68% | $4.4T | 36.0 | +642.6% | 2691.5% | 1482 | |
| $421.92 | +3.05% | $3.1T | 25.0 | +1493.2% | 3614.6% | 1460 | |
| $425.19 | -3.32% | $2.0T | 80.7 | +2387.4% | 3619.8% | 1500 | |
| $724.66 | -6.62% | $817.2B | 33.8 | +4885.1% | 2284.5% | 1532 | |
| $424.10 | -5.69% | $691.5B | 138.6 | +3433.8% | 1251.5% | 1516 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.50% | — | 52.8 | +2736.4% | 3170.4% | 1499 |