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★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $1.2B — +4.6% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
01Net revenue retention rates and annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, indicating customer expansion and churn dynamics within the nonprofit vertical
02Operating margin trajectory and free cash flow conversion, particularly as the company executes on cost optimization following debt refinancing
03Customer acquisition metrics in mid-market and enterprise nonprofit segments, where competitive intensity from Salesforce.org and Microsoft Dynamics has increased
04Payment processing transaction volumes and take rates, which correlate with overall charitable giving trends and donor engagement levels
05Recurring subscription revenue (~85-90% of total) from cloud-based software modules including Raiser's Edge NXT, Financial Edge NXT, and Blackbaud CRM
06Transactional payment processing fees (~8-12% of total) from Blackbaud Merchant Services handling donation and tuition payments
07Professional services and implementation fees (~5-8% of total) for onboarding, training, and custom integrations
value - The stock trades at distressed multiples (2.1x P/S, 0.2x EV/EBITDA) reflecting balance sheet concerns and revenue contraction…
Rising interest rates create multiple headwinds: (1) Higher debt service costs on the company's substantial $1.4B+ debt load (Debt/Equity…
Watch on earnings: Annual charitable giving growth rates (Giving USA Foundation data) as leading indicator for customer budget expansion and payment processing volumes, SaaS Magic Number (net new ARR divided by prior quarter sales & marketing spend) to assess customer acquisition efficiency, Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio and interest coverage ratio for debt sustainability assessment.
One Sentence Summary:
Blackbaud: the story is balanced — net revenue retention rates and annual recurring revenue (arr) growth, indicating customer expansion and churn dynamics within the nonprofit.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
