AlloSure test volume growth rates across kidney, heart, and lung transplant segments
Medicare/CMS reimbursement rate decisions and coverage expansion to additional organ types
Competitive threats from Natera's Prospera dd-cfDNA test and market share dynamics in kidney transplant surveillance
Clinical trial data releases demonstrating improved patient outcomes and cost-effectiveness versus standard-of-care biopsies
low - Transplant surveillance testing is medically necessary and non-discretionary for post-transplant patient management. Organ transplant volumes are driven by organ availability and waitlist dynamics rather than economic conditions. However, commercial insurance coverage and employer healthcare spending can affect reimbursement mix and payment timing during recessions.
Rising interest rates create moderate headwinds through higher discount rates applied to future cash flows, compressing valuation multiples for unprofitable or low-margin growth companies. With minimal debt (0.09 D/E), financing costs are negligible. However, as a healthcare growth stock trading at 2.9x sales, the company's valuation is sensitive to risk-free rate changes affecting investor appetite for growth versus value. Higher rates also pressure hospital capital budgets, potentially slowing adoption of new diagnostic protocols.
Reimbursement risk: CMS or commercial payers could reduce coverage rates, frequency allowances, or reimbursement amounts for dd-cfDNA testing, directly impacting revenue per patient
Clinical guideline changes: Transplant societies (ISHLT, AST) could modify surveillance protocols reducing testing frequency or recommending alternative monitoring approaches
Technology obsolescence: Next-generation biomarkers or imaging modalities could emerge as superior alternatives to dd-cfDNA for rejection detection
growth - The stock attracts growth investors focused on the expanding transplant diagnostics market, recent profitability inflection (128% EPS growth), and 19% revenue growth. The 68% six-month return reflects momentum investor interest following operational improvements. However, the -19% one-year return and volatile performance indicate this remains a speculative growth position rather than stable value or income play. The small $1B market cap and healthcare specialization appeal to biotech/medtech-focused funds.
No analyst coverage available for this stock.
Trend
+15.9% vs SMA 50 · +30.8% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
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About
caredx: transforming transplant patient care through novel surveillance management solutions caredx, inc. is dedicated to improving the lives of organ transplant patients through non-invasive diagnostics. by combining the latest advances in genomics and bioinformatics technology, with a commitment to generating high quality clinical evidence through trials and registries, caredx is at the forefront of organ transplant surveillance and pre-transplant hla typing solutions. nasdaq:cdna about allosure® allosure is the first and only non-invasive blood test that directly measures allograft injury and identifies the probability of active rejection to better manage kidney transplant patients. allosure is a clinical-grade, proprietary next-generation sequencing (ngs) based test to detect donor-derived cell-free dna (dd-cfdna) in order to identify organ injury in kidney transplant recipients. allosure is analytically validated as a sensitive, specific, and precise measurement of dd-cfdna. allos
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CDNA◀ | $21.50 | +3.32% | $1.1B | — | +1378.7% | -562.2% | 1500 |
| $68.56 | -3.59% | $13.3B | — | +12626.1% | -14525.8% | 1500 | |
| $513.72 | -0.71% | $11.8B | — | +43205.3% | -3008.0% | 1500 | |
| $87.60 | +0.60% | $11.5B | — | +3288.2% | -4239.0% | 1500 | |
| $183.72 | -1.59% | $10.7B | 29.2 | +1871.5% | 680.1% | 1500 | |
| $206.53 | -0.59% | $10.6B | — | +6554.5% | -2868.8% | 1500 | |
| $74.81 | +1.81% | $10.5B | 51.8 | +2325815.3% | -19.7% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.11% | — | 40.5 | +342105.7% | -3506.2% | 1500 |