CRNC
Earnings in 3 days · May 7, 2026 · After close
Signal
Bullish Setup3
Price
1
Move+7.14%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume1.8× avgHeavy volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 53Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
9.67
Open
9.67
Day Range9.67 – 11.19
9.67
11.19
52W Range5.85 – 13.74
5.85
13.74
57% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
887.4K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
518.0x
Premium valuation
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.58
High vol
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +29% YoY · 79% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 518x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.9 · FCF $1.66/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$466.39M
Revenue TTM$315.96M
Net Income TTM$335.0K
Free Cash Flow$74.57M
Gross Margin78.6%
Net Margin0.1%
Operating Margin17.8%
Return on Equity0.2%
Return on Assets0.1%
Debt / Equity1.33
Current Ratio1.88
EPS TTM$0.01
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

OEM contract wins or losses - particularly with major manufacturers like Volkswagen Group, Mercedes-Benz, or Toyota where multi-year platform decisions drive revenue visibility

Automotive production volumes and new vehicle sales - directly impacts connected services revenue from active vehicle subscriptions

Competitive displacement announcements - when OEMs announce shifts to Google Automotive Services, Apple CarPlay, or in-house solutions

Transition progress from legacy license model to recurring cloud services - mix shift and ARR growth metrics

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Revenue directly tied to global automotive production volumes and new vehicle sales, which are highly cyclical. Consumer discretionary spending drives vehicle purchases, particularly in premium segments where voice technology adoption is highest. Industrial production indices correlate with commercial vehicle demand. The 24% revenue decline reflects both cyclical weakness in auto production (2024-2025 inventory corrections, EV transition disruptions) and structural share loss to competitors.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates negatively impact Cerence through two channels: (1) Higher auto loan rates reduce vehicle affordability and suppress new car sales, directly reducing connected services revenue from lower active vehicle populations; (2) As a growth-stage software company with negative net margins, higher discount rates compress valuation multiples. The company's 1.33x debt/equity ratio creates moderate refinancing risk if rates remain elevated. Lower rates would stimulate auto demand and improve valuation multiples for unprofitable tech stocks.

Key Risks

Platform displacement by hyperscalers - Google, Amazon, and Apple offering integrated infotainment systems with superior ecosystems, often subsidized to capture automotive data streams and user engagement

Automotive OEM vertical integration - Major manufacturers like Tesla, GM (with OnStar), and Chinese OEMs developing proprietary voice AI to control customer data and reduce third-party dependencies

Generalized LLM commoditization - ChatGPT, Claude, and other foundation models reducing differentiation of automotive-specific voice technology, compressing pricing power

Investor Profile

value/turnaround - The 41% one-year decline, 1.2x P/S ratio, and 12.8% FCF yield attract deep-value investors betting on stabilization or activist intervention. Not a growth stock given -24% revenue decline. Not dividend-oriented (likely no dividend given negative margins). Some distressed/special situations investors may see restructuring or M&A potential. High-risk profile deters institutional quality-focused funds.

Watch on Earnings
Global light vehicle production and sales volumes (SAAR - Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) - primary demand driverAutomotive semiconductor supply chain health - chip shortages directly impact vehicle production and technology integration timelinesOEM infotainment platform decisions and Google Automotive Services adoption rates - competitive displacement indicatorConnected vehicle penetration rates by region - addressable market expansion, particularly in China and emerging markets
Health Radar
1 strong3 watch2 concern
38/100
Liquidity
1.88Watch
Leverage
1.33Watch
Coverage
6.6xStrong
ROE
0.2%Concern
ROIC
0.1%Concern
Cash
$84MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE11 analysts
HOLD
-22.8%downside to target
Buy
327%
Hold
873%
3 Buy (27%)8 Hold (73%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
6/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 53 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowLean Distribution — selling pressure
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.88 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · After CloseMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupMIXED
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 24.3%

+37.7% vs SMA 50 · +4.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI53.3
Neutral territory
MACD-0.32
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$13.74+32.6%
EMA 50
$10.81+4.4%
Current
$10.36
EMA 200
$9.74-6.0%
52W Low
$5.85-43.5%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$5.8557th %ile$13.74
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:8
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.7M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.7M+2%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$348.6M
$340.7M$361.1M
-$6.90
±4%
Low2
FY2024
$324.4M
$316.4M$335.3M
-6.9%$0.91
±1%
Moderate4
FY2025
$246.4M
$245.7M$247.0M
-24.1%$0.39-57.1%
±4%
Moderate3
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 8 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryCRNC
Last 8Q
+195.3%avg beat
Beat 8 of 8 quarters Estimates rising
+61%
Q2'24
+280%
Q3'24
+81%
Q4'24
+89%
Q1'25
+56%
Q2'25
+126%
Q3'25
+109%
Q4'25
+761%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Wells FargoOverweight → Equal-Weight
May 10
DOWNGRADE
NeedhamBuy → Hold
May 7
DOWNGRADE
Wolfe ResearchPeer Perform
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
Craig-HallumBuy
Feb 9
UPGRADE
Maxim GroupBuy
Feb 9
UPGRADE
Roth CapitalSell
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
StephensEqual-Weight
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
Keefe, Bruyette & W…Underperform
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
JefferiesHold
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
RBC CapitalSector Perform
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
Telsey AdvisoryUnderperform
Feb 9
DOWNGRADE
Goldman SachsNeutral
Feb 22
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Krzanich Brian MCEO
$1.5M
Oct 9
SELL
Salinas JenniferEVP Chief Admi…
$826K
Oct 6
SELL
Salinas JenniferEVP Chief Admi…
$960K
Oct 7
SELL
Rodriquez AntonioCFO
$489K
Oct 6
SELL
Mentz ChristianEVP, Chief Rev…
$343K
Oct 6
SELL
Schanz NilsEVP Product & …
$390K
Oct 6
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
745K
2
Y-Intercept (Hong Kong) Ltd
154K
3
ACORN FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES INC /ADV
110K
4
Concurrent Investment Advisors, LLC
95K
5
PINNACLE ASSOCIATES LTD
45K
6
WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC
31K
7
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
28K
8
Private Advisor Group, LLC
21K
News & Activity

CRNC News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

cerence (nasdaq: crnc) is the global industry leader in creating unique, moving experiences for the mobility world. as an innovation partner to the world’s leading automakers and mobility oems, it is helping advance the future of connected mobility through intuitive, powerful interaction between humans and their cars, two-wheelers, and even elevators, connecting consumers’ digital lives to their daily journeys no matter where they are. cerence’s track record is built on more than 20 years of knowledge and more than 450 million cars shipped with cerence technology. whether it’s connected cars, autonomous driving, e-vehicles, or buildings, cerence is mapping the road ahead. for more information, visit www.cerence.com.

CEO
Stefan Ortmanns
Dennis J. CloseVice President & Treasurer
Nils LenkeVice President & GM of Applications
Kate HickmanVice President of Corporate Communications & Investor Relations
PeersTechnology(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
CRNC
$10.36+0.00%$435M1500
$198.48-0.56%$4.8T40.2+6547.4%5560.3%1495
$276.83+3.28%$4.1T33.6+642.6%2691.5%1494
$413.62+1.57%$3.1T24.6+1493.2%3614.6%1477
$416.50+0.92%$2.0T80.0+2387.4%3619.8%1504
$576.45+4.84%$611.5B25.3+4885.1%2284.5%1534
$341.54+1.71%$587.8B135.6+3433.8%1251.5%1517
Sector avg+1.68%56.5+3231.6%3170.4%1503