Prescription volume trends for key branded products, particularly any new product launches or label expansions
Formulary wins or losses with major pharmacy benefit managers (CVS Caremark, Express Scripts, OptumRx) affecting reimbursement access
Sales force productivity metrics and physician call activity in target dermatology practices
Generic competition introductions for branded products or pricing pressure in generic portfolio
low - Prescription dermatology products are generally non-discretionary medical treatments with stable demand across economic cycles. However, elective cosmetic dermatology procedures that drive office visits may see modest cyclical variation. Insurance coverage insulates most demand from consumer spending fluctuations, though high-deductible health plans may create some price sensitivity for branded products.
Rising interest rates create moderate pressure through two channels: (1) higher cost of capital for a cash-burning business with debt/equity of 0.98, potentially requiring dilutive equity raises if credit markets tighten, and (2) valuation multiple compression as investors demand higher returns from unprofitable growth companies. The company's negative free cash flow makes it vulnerable to financing conditions.
Pharmacy benefit manager consolidation and increasing formulary restrictions reducing reimbursement access for branded dermatology products
Generic drug price erosion driven by FDA approval acceleration and increased competition in dermatology segment
Shift toward biosimilars and novel mechanisms in dermatology (biologics for psoriasis, atopic dermatitis) potentially obsoleting traditional small-molecule treatments
momentum - The 58% one-year return despite deteriorating fundamentals suggests speculative trading interest, likely driven by technical factors or turnaround speculation rather than fundamental value. The combination of negative margins, declining revenue, and micro-cap status attracts high-risk tolerance investors seeking asymmetric upside from potential restructuring, product pipeline developments, or acquisition speculation. Not suitable for value or income investors given negative earnings and no dividend.
Trend
-16.8% vs SMA 50 · +5.7% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $64.6M $63.9M–$65.4M | — | -$0.48 | — | ±10% | Moderate3 |
FY2026(current) | $82.6M $77.6M–$87.7M | ▲ +27.8% | $0.07 | — | ±16% | Moderate3 |
FY2027 | $137.7M $131.1M–$144.3M | ▲ +66.7% | $1.04 | ▲ +1496.2% | ±16% | Moderate3 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
DERM News
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| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DERM◀ | $6.33 | -0.31% | $174M | — | +1019.7% | -1847.9% | 1500 |
| $66.13 | -5.07% | $13.0B | — | +12626.1% | -14525.8% | 1500 | |
| $94.92 | -3.79% | $12.6B | — | +3288.2% | -4239.0% | 1500 | |
| $523.69 | -3.00% | $12.1B | — | +43205.3% | -3008.0% | 1500 | |
| $227.72 | -1.30% | $11.7B | — | +6554.5% | -2868.8% | 1500 | |
| $57.90 | -0.86% | $11.2B | 50.3 | +1459.3% | 147.7% | 1500 | |
| $76.67 | -3.79% | $10.8B | — | +2325815.3% | -19.7% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.59% | — | 50.3 | +341995.5% | -3765.9% | 1500 |