10/8/26
HF Sinclair (DINO)
ThesisHF Sinclair: the story is balanced — 3-2-1 crack spreads in Group 3 (Mid-Continent) and PADD 5 (West Coast) markets - primary margin driver
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $34.6B — +28.8% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
- 013-2-1 crack spreads in Group 3 (Mid-Continent) and PADD 5 (West Coast) markets - primary margin driver
- 02Crude oil differentials: WTI-Midland discount to WTI-Cushing and WCS heavy crude discounts
- 03Refinery utilization rates and turnaround schedules at key facilities (Puget Sound, El Dorado, Navajo)
- 04Renewable diesel margins: D4 RIN credit prices and soybean oil feedstock costs
- 05Gasoline demand seasonality and regional inventory levels
- 06Capital allocation decisions: dividend sustainability, share buyback activity, and renewable diesel expansion capex
- 07Refined products sales (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) - approximately 85-90% of revenue
- 08Renewable diesel production and sales - growing segment with RIN credit monetization
My Notes
- value - Current 0.4x P/S and 7.7x EV/EBITDA multiples reflect deep value positioning.
- Rising interest rates have moderate impact through two channels: (1) higher financing costs for working capital facilities and capex…
- Watch on earnings: WTI crude oil spot price and Brent-WTI spread (reflects US crude export economics), US Gulf Coast 3-2-1 crack spread and Group 3 regional crack spread differentials, Weekly EIA refinery utilization rates and gasoline/distillate inventory levels.
One Sentence Summary:
HF Sinclair: the story is balanced — 3-2-1 crack spreads in group 3 (mid-continent) and padd 5 (west coast) markets - primary margin driver.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
