FICO
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move+0.59%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.6× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 51Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
1,060.00
Open
1,058.10
Day Range1,039.81 – 1,079.94
1,039.81
1,079.94
52W Range870.01 – 2,217.60
870.01
2,217.60
15% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
478.3K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
33.8x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.05
Market-like
Performance
1D
+0.59%
5D
+6.63%
1M
-2.56%
3M
-21.44%
6M
-34.55%
YTD
-36.93%
1Y
-48.75%
Best: 5D (+6.63%)Worst: 1Y (-48.75%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +23% YoY · 84% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 34x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 2.2 · FCF $37.78/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$24.73B
Revenue TTM$2.26B
Net Income TTM$759.63M
Free Cash Flow$892.68M
Gross Margin84.2%
Net Margin33.7%
Operating Margin50.4%
Return on Equity-43.1%
Return on Assets37.1%
Debt / Equity-1.74
Current Ratio2.22
EPS TTM$32.15
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Mortgage origination volumes (purchase and refinance activity) - drives 35-40% of Scores revenue through bureau score pulls

Score pricing actions - management periodically negotiates price increases with bureaus, creating step-function margin expansion

Credit card and auto loan origination trends - drives non-mortgage score volume growth

Software segment bookings and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth - indicates enterprise platform adoption

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate-to-high - Scores revenue is directly tied to credit origination volumes, which correlate with GDP growth, housing market activity, and consumer confidence. Recessions reduce mortgage purchase activity and tighten lending standards (fewer marginal borrowers scored), compressing volumes 20-30%. However, the business is partially counter-cyclical: refinancing waves during rate cuts can offset purchase volume declines. Software segment is more stable with recurring subscription revenue.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through mortgage channel. Rising rates suppress refinancing activity (2022-2023 saw refi volumes collapse 70%+), directly reducing score pulls. However, purchase mortgage activity is less rate-sensitive in strong labor markets. Falling rates trigger refinancing booms (2020-2021 saw record score volumes). The 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates are leading indicators for Scores revenue with 1-2 quarter lags. Rate volatility also drives demand for FICO's fraud detection software as lenders manage risk.

Key Risks

Regulatory disruption to FICO Score monopoly - FHFA proposed allowing alternative credit models for GSE mortgages, though implementation has stalled. VantageScore (competitor owned by bureaus) gaining traction in auto/card but minimal mortgage penetration.

Disintermediation by credit bureaus - Equifax, Experian, TransUnion have incentive to promote proprietary scores to reduce FICO royalty payments, though GSE mandate creates structural moat in mortgage (50%+ of Scores revenue).

Software segment faces competition from Experian (fraud), SAS Institute (analytics), FICO, and emerging AI-native startups in fraud detection and decisioning platforms

Investor Profile

growth - Investors pay premium multiples (15.5x P/S, 35x EV/EBITDA) for 15%+ revenue growth, 80%+ gross margins, and capital-light FCF generation. The stock attracts quality growth investors seeking durable competitive moats and pricing power. Recent 25% drawdown reflects multiple compression from peak valuations and mortgage volume concerns, creating potential entry point for long-term holders.

Watch on Earnings
MBA Mortgage Application Index (purchase and refinance components) - leading indicator for Scores volume30-year fixed mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US) - primary driver of refinancing activityTotal U.S. mortgage originations (HOUST for new construction, existing home sales for purchase mortgages)Auto loan origination volumes and credit card account openings - non-mortgage score drivers
Health Radar
4 strong2 concern
62/100
Liquidity
2.22Strong
Leverage
-1.74Strong
Coverage
7.1xStrong
ROE
-43.1%Concern
ROIC
53.2%Strong
Cash
$134MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE18 analysts
BUY
+54.7%upside to target
L $1,150.00
Med $1,650.00consensus
H $1,950.00
Buy
1583%
Hold
317%
15 Buy (83%)3 Hold (17%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
4 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 51 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowLean Distribution — selling pressure
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.22 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 7, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 4, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 13, 2026
In 99 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 23.0%

-5.4% vs SMA 50 · -27.1% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI51.4
Neutral territory
MACD-14.32
Below zero — bearish pulse · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$2,218+108.0%
EMA 200
$1,423+33.5%
EMA 50
$1,128+5.7%
Current
$1,066
52W Low
$870.0-18.4%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$870.015th %ile$2,218
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:5
Edge:+2 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)348K
Recent Vol (5D)
245K-30%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 15 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$2.0B
$2.0B$2.1B
$29.49
±1%
High13
FY2026(current)
$2.5B
$2.5B$2.6B
+27.8%$42.79+45.1%
±6%
High13
FY2027
$2.9B
$2.8B$3.0B
+15.2%$53.76+25.6%
±8%
High15
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 5 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryFICO
Last 8Q
+2.1%avg beat
Beat 6 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
-20%
Q3'24
+2%
Q4'24
-5%
Q1'25
+4%
Q2'25
+11%
Q3'25
+6%
Q4'25
+4%
Q1'26
+15%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
OppenheimerOutperform → Perform
Oct 13
DOWNGRADE
Goldman SachsNeutral
Oct 6
DOWNGRADE
JefferiesBuy
Nov 15
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/4 SellsNet Selling
Manolis EvaDir
$638K
Feb 25
SELL
Rees JoannaDir
$487K
Feb 13
SELL
Weber Steven P.Executive Vice…
$2.6M
Dec 17
SELL
Manolis EvaDir
$951K
Dec 12
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
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249K
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52K
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37K
7
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34K
8
CONGRESS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO /MA
28K
News & Activity

FICO News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

besi netherlands b.v. is a product division of be semiconductor industries n.v., which is publicly listed as besi on euronext (amsterdam, the netherlands). besi netherlands b.v. develops and manufactures machines for the semiconductor industry under the brand name fico. this includes molding systems, trim & form equipment, laser markers, and singulation systems for leadframe and array connect substrates. besi netherlands b.v. outsources part of its production to sister companies in malaysia and china. the customers of besi netherlands b.v. are leading global manufacturers of chips and their suppliers.

CEO
William Lansing
Amir HermelinVice President & Chief Technology Officer
Michael S. LeonardVice President & Chief Accounting Officer
Nikhil BehlPresident of Software
PeersTechnology(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
FICO
$1066.27+0.59%$24.7B33.2+1591.5%3274.7%1484
$196.50-1.00%$4.8T39.8+6547.4%5560.3%1494
$284.18+2.66%$4.2T34.1+642.6%2691.5%1491
$411.38-0.54%$3.1T24.4+1493.2%3614.6%1477
$427.36+2.61%$2.0T81.1+2387.4%3619.8%1504
$640.20+11.06%$722.0B29.9+4885.1%2284.5%1536
$355.26+4.02%$579.2B115.7+3433.8%1251.5%1517
Sector avg+2.77%51.2+2997.3%3185.3%1500