JD Wetherspoon warns profits may miss targets due to higher sector costs
JD Wetherspoon PLC (LSE:JDW) reported steady sales growth in the past quarter but warned rising cost…

Mortgage origination volumes (purchase and refinance activity) - drives 35-40% of Scores revenue through bureau score pulls
Score pricing actions - management periodically negotiates price increases with bureaus, creating step-function margin expansion
Credit card and auto loan origination trends - drives non-mortgage score volume growth
Software segment bookings and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth - indicates enterprise platform adoption
moderate-to-high - Scores revenue is directly tied to credit origination volumes, which correlate with GDP growth, housing market activity, and consumer confidence. Recessions reduce mortgage purchase activity and tighten lending standards (fewer marginal borrowers scored), compressing volumes 20-30%. However, the business is partially counter-cyclical: refinancing waves during rate cuts can offset purchase volume declines. Software segment is more stable with recurring subscription revenue.
High sensitivity through mortgage channel. Rising rates suppress refinancing activity (2022-2023 saw refi volumes collapse 70%+), directly reducing score pulls. However, purchase mortgage activity is less rate-sensitive in strong labor markets. Falling rates trigger refinancing booms (2020-2021 saw record score volumes). The 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates are leading indicators for Scores revenue with 1-2 quarter lags. Rate volatility also drives demand for FICO's fraud detection software as lenders manage risk.
Regulatory disruption to FICO Score monopoly - FHFA proposed allowing alternative credit models for GSE mortgages, though implementation has stalled. VantageScore (competitor owned by bureaus) gaining traction in auto/card but minimal mortgage penetration.
Disintermediation by credit bureaus - Equifax, Experian, TransUnion have incentive to promote proprietary scores to reduce FICO royalty payments, though GSE mandate creates structural moat in mortgage (50%+ of Scores revenue).
Software segment faces competition from Experian (fraud), SAS Institute (analytics), FICO, and emerging AI-native startups in fraud detection and decisioning platforms
growth - Investors pay premium multiples (15.5x P/S, 35x EV/EBITDA) for 15%+ revenue growth, 80%+ gross margins, and capital-light FCF generation. The stock attracts quality growth investors seeking durable competitive moats and pricing power. Recent 25% drawdown reflects multiple compression from peak valuations and mortgage volume concerns, creating potential entry point for long-term holders.
Trend
-5.4% vs SMA 50 · -27.1% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $2.0B $2.0B–$2.1B | — | $29.49 | — | ±1% | High13 |
FY2026(current) | $2.5B $2.5B–$2.6B | ▲ +27.8% | $42.79 | ▲ +45.1% | ±6% | High13 |
FY2027 | $2.9B $2.8B–$3.0B | ▲ +15.2% | $53.76 | ▲ +25.6% | ±8% | High15 |
JD Wetherspoon PLC (LSE:JDW) reported steady sales growth in the past quarter but warned rising cost…

besi netherlands b.v. is a product division of be semiconductor industries n.v., which is publicly listed as besi on euronext (amsterdam, the netherlands). besi netherlands b.v. develops and manufactures machines for the semiconductor industry under the brand name fico. this includes molding systems, trim & form equipment, laser markers, and singulation systems for leadframe and array connect substrates. besi netherlands b.v. outsources part of its production to sister companies in malaysia and china. the customers of besi netherlands b.v. are leading global manufacturers of chips and their suppliers.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FICO◀ | $1066.27 | +0.59% | $24.7B | 33.2 | +1591.5% | 3274.7% | 1484 |
| $196.50 | -1.00% | $4.8T | 39.8 | +6547.4% | 5560.3% | 1494 | |
| $284.18 | +2.66% | $4.2T | 34.1 | +642.6% | 2691.5% | 1491 | |
| $411.38 | -0.54% | $3.1T | 24.4 | +1493.2% | 3614.6% | 1477 | |
| $427.36 | +2.61% | $2.0T | 81.1 | +2387.4% | 3619.8% | 1504 | |
| $640.20 | +11.06% | $722.0B | 29.9 | +4885.1% | 2284.5% | 1536 | |
| $355.26 | +4.02% | $579.2B | 115.7 | +3433.8% | 1251.5% | 1517 | |
| Sector avg | — | +2.77% | — | 51.2 | +2997.3% | 3185.3% | 1500 |