FS Bancorp (FSBW)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Net interest margin expansion/compression driven by Fed funds rate changes and deposit beta (cost of deposits relative to rate increases)
2. 02Commercial real estate loan growth and credit quality metrics in Pacific Northwest markets, particularly Seattle-area office and multifamily exposure
3. 03Deposit growth and mix shift between non-interest bearing and interest-bearing accounts
4. 04Credit provision expenses and non-performing asset trends, especially in CRE portfolio
5. 05Net interest income from commercial real estate loans (estimated 40-45% of loan portfolio)
6. 06Net interest income from C&I and consumer loans including residential mortgages (estimated 35-40%)
7. 07Non-interest income from deposit fees, mortgage banking, and wealth management services (estimated 15-20% of total revenue)

FSBW Chart

My Notes

• value - Trading at 1.0x price/book with 11.1% ROE attracts value investors seeking discount to tangible book value.
• Net interest margin expands when Fed raises rates (assuming deposit costs lag)…
• Watch on earnings: Federal Funds Rate and forward guidance from FOMC meetings (directly impacts NIM), 10Y-2Y Treasury yield curve spread (inverted curve signals NIM compression and potential recession), Pacific Northwest unemployment rate and non-farm payroll growth (credit quality leading indicator).