HOG
Earnings in 1 day · May 5, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+2.47%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume0.7× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 67Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
23.89
Open
24.34
Day Range23.84 – 24.59
23.84
24.59
52W Range17.09 – 31.25
17.09
31.25
52% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.7M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
8.8x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
1.36
Market-like
Performance
1D
+2.47%
5D
+6.43%
1M
+17.35%
3M
+25.15%
6M
-9.27%
YTD
+19.47%
1Y
+4.13%
Best: 3M (+25.15%)Worst: 6M (-9.27%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BEARISH
revenue -14% YoY
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 9x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 2.1 · FCF $3.63/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.74B
Revenue TTM$4.47B
Net Income TTM$338.74M
Free Cash Flow$415.24M
Gross Margin26.8%
Net Margin7.6%
Operating Margin8.7%
Return on Equity10.3%
Return on Assets4.2%
Debt / Equity0.97
Current Ratio2.10
EPS TTM$2.96
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

North American retail motorcycle unit sales trends (represents ~60% of total units): Dealer inventory levels and sell-through rates signal underlying demand

Average selling price (ASP) and product mix: Shift toward Touring/CVO models (higher ASP $30K+) vs Sportster/Street (lower ASP $10K-$15K) drives revenue per unit

Market share trends in US heavyweight segment (601cc+): Competition from Indian Motorcycle (Polaris), BMW, Ducati, and Japanese manufacturers

International expansion progress: Europe (20-25% of revenue), Asia-Pacific growth initiatives, and tariff/trade policy impacts on cost structure

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Motorcycles are discretionary big-ticket purchases ($15K-$45K ASP) highly correlated with consumer confidence, disposable income, and wealth effects. Core customer demographic (45-65 year old males, median household income $85K+) is sensitive to equity market performance and housing wealth. Revenue declined -13.8% reflecting weak consumer discretionary spending environment. Recessions historically drive 20-30% unit volume declines.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) HDFS funding costs directly impact finance margin as company borrows in unsecured debt markets to fund loan portfolio; 50bps rate increase compresses finance margin by ~$15-20M annually if not passed through. (2) Retail financing rates affect customer affordability; typical buyer finances 70%+ of purchase at 6-9% APR, so rising rates reduce qualified buyer pool. (3) Valuation multiple compression as equity investors rotate from low-growth cyclicals to bonds when yields rise. Current 16.6% FCF yield suggests market pricing in elevated discount rate.

Key Risks

Demographic cliff: Core Baby Boomer customer base aging out (median buyer age 53+) while brand fails to resonate with Millennials/Gen-Z despite marketing efforts. New rider acquisition rates declining industry-wide.

Electrification transition risk: LiveWire electric motorcycle strategy requires significant capital investment but uncertain demand and profitability. Tesla/Rivian brand appeal with younger demographics may capture emerging EV motorcycle market.

Regulatory emissions standards: EPA/CARB increasingly stringent emissions requirements increase R&D and compliance costs for internal combustion platforms, particularly in California and European markets.

Investor Profile

value - Deep value investors attracted to distressed multiples (0.6x P/S, 4.2x EV/EBITDA, 16.6% FCF yield) betting on turnaround execution or activist intervention. Dividend yield investors drawn to high payout but sustainability questioned given negative growth. Contrarian investors wagering on brand strength and international expansion offsetting domestic headwinds. Momentum and growth investors notably absent given -21.9% 1-year return and negative revenue/earnings growth.

Watch on Earnings
US heavyweight motorcycle industry retail sales (601cc+): Monthly MMIC data indicates total market size and Harley's shareConsumer confidence index (University of Michigan): Leading indicator for big-ticket discretionary purchasesGasoline prices (RBOB futures): Higher fuel costs can dampen motorcycle usage and purchase intent, though less elastic than auto marketHigh-yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2): HDFS funding costs correlate with corporate credit conditions
Health Radar
4 strong1 watch1 concern
64/100
Liquidity
2.10Strong
Leverage
0.97Strong
Coverage
11.7xStrong
ROE
10.3%Watch
ROIC
4.2%Concern
Cash
$3.1BStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE28 analysts
HOLD
-10.1%downside to target
L $12.00
Med $22.00consensus
H $25.00
Buy
725%
Hold
1864%
Sell
311%
7 Buy (25%)18 Hold (64%)3 Sell (11%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
8/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 67 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 2.10 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 13.1%

+13.9% vs SMA 50 · -1.0% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI66.9
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.72
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$31.25+27.7%
EMA 200
$24.65+0.7%
Current
$24.48
EMA 50
$22.42-8.4%
52W Low
$17.09-30.2%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$17.0952th %ile$31.25
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:0
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.6M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.5M-6%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 10 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$6.0B
$5.8B$6.1B
$4.93
±3%
High6
FY2024
$4.2B
$4.2B$4.2B
-30.0%$3.64-26.2%
±2%
High8
FY2025
$3.7B
$3.7B$3.7B
-11.7%$4.14+13.6%
±7%
High10
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryHOG
Last 8Q
-1.9%avg beat
Beat 5 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates falling
+14%
Q2'24
+16%
Q3'24
+15%
Q4'24
-43%
Q1'25
+34%
Q2'25
-11%
Q3'25
+125%
Q4'25
-165%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Morgan StanleyBuy → Underweight
Oct 27
DOWNGRADE
Pivotal ResearchSell
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
BTIGBuy
Jul 21
UPGRADE
Wolfe ResearchPeer Perform
Jul 21
UPGRADE
Piper SandlerNeutral
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
Seaport GlobalSell
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
Wells FargoEqual-Weight
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
Deutsche BankNeutral
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
OppenheimerPerform
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
Evercore ISIUnderperform
Jul 21
DOWNGRADE
Morgan StanleyEqual-Weight → Overweight
Mar 22
UPGRADE
JefferiesUnderperform → Hold
Mar 15
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
3 Buys/3 SellsNeutral
Do CharlesSr. Vice Presi…
$77K
Mar 12
SELL
Flees Lori AnnDir
$76K
Mar 9
BUY
Starrs ArtieDir
$287K
Mar 9
BUY
Masood RafehDir
$50K
Feb 27
BUY
Farley Jr James DDir
$121K
Feb 25
SELL
Mansfield Luke Chri…Chief Commerci…
$267K
Nov 20
SELL
Financials
Dividends2.97% yield
+4.9% avg annual growth
Annual Yield2.97%
Quarterly Div.$0.1875
Est. Annual / Share$0.75
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Nuveen, LLC
255K
2
Ninety One UK Ltd
206K
3
Retirement Systems of Alabama
145K
4
SG Americas Securities, LLC
128K
5
MONEY CONCEPTS CAPITAL CORP
113K
6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
84K
7
NISA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC
84K
8
Twelve Points Wealth Management LLC
69K
News & Activity

HOG News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

harley-davidson fulfills dreams of personal freedom for people around the world. this has been our bold and unique purpose since 1903. we give people the means to express themselves; the means to liberate themselves from whatever constrains them. to do this, we must be the best at helping customers achieve personal freedom. their journey begins when they feel a deep emotional connection to our exceptional and distinct products. our retail experience takes them a step further, connecting them to the brand in their own highly personal and customized way. we can build the motorcycle the customer wants, when they want it, through flexible manufacturing. fulfilling dreams of personal freedom requires us to work as one company, one team, moving in one direction. we are customer led in all we do, and we believe and invest in our people and our communities. when we live our purpose, customers experience a lasting bond of freedom with one another and our dealers and h-d will continue to grow. f

Industry
Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Manufacturing
CEO
Jochen Zeitz
Jonathan R. RootCFO & Chief Commercial Officer
Andy BenkaVice President of Product Management & Chief of Staff
Arthur Francis StarrsChief Executive Officer, President & Director
Peers(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
HOG
$24.48+2.47%$2.7B8.3-1375.9%757.3%1500
$397.67+0.41%$2.1T28.7+3296.8%4510.0%1500
$91.95+0.10%$316.0B14.1+318.8%1510.7%1500
$131.46-0.32%$305.1B22.6+586.3%1305.9%1500
$184.74-1.40%$286.4B27.2+862.9%1745.9%1500
$146.57-0.87%$279.7B21.0+597.3%2564.4%1500
$88.98-1.86%$251.9B14.4-591.0%668.4%1500
Sector avg-0.21%19.5+527.9%1866.1%1500