Portfolio purchase volume and pricing - deployment of capital into new debt acquisitions at attractive yields
Collection curve performance - actual vs. modeled cash recoveries on existing portfolios, particularly in first 24 months
Consumer credit quality trends - delinquency and charge-off rates at major issuers drive portfolio supply and collectability
Regulatory developments - CFPB enforcement actions, state-level collection law changes, statute of limitations rulings
high - Consumer debt collection performance is highly correlated with employment, wage growth, and household financial stress. Rising unemployment reduces debtor ability to pay, lowering collection rates. Conversely, strong labor markets improve recoveries. The business is counter-cyclical on the supply side (more charge-offs create portfolio supply during recessions) but pro-cyclical on collections (recoveries decline when consumers are stressed). Net effect typically makes collections more sensitive to macro conditions than portfolio acquisition opportunities.
Rising rates have mixed effects: (1) Negative for funding costs - JCAP's 2.71 debt/equity ratio means higher borrowing costs directly impact returns on leveraged portfolio purchases. (2) Positive for portfolio supply - higher rates stress consumers and increase charge-off volumes at lenders, creating more acquisition opportunities. (3) Negative for valuation multiples - as a yield-oriented financial, higher risk-free rates compress P/E multiples. The 13% FCF yield suggests current valuation already reflects elevated rate environment.
Regulatory tightening - CFPB rule changes on collection practices, debt validation requirements, or statute of limitations interpretations could materially reduce recoverable amounts or increase compliance costs
Litigation risk - class action lawsuits related to collection practices, FDCPA violations, or TCPA claims can result in significant settlements and operational restrictions
Technological disruption - AI-driven collection platforms from fintech competitors could commoditize underwriting advantages and compress portfolio purchase pricing
value - The 1.0x P/B, 2.2x P/S, and 13% FCF yield attract value investors seeking mispriced cash flow streams. The 35% ROE appeals to investors focused on capital efficiency. However, the -5.6% net income decline despite 34% revenue growth suggests portfolio seasoning dynamics or investment phase that requires sophisticated understanding of debt collection economics. Not suitable for growth-at-any-price investors given the mature, capital-intensive business model.
Trend
+3.8% vs SMA 50 · +15.7% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $58.0M $46.4M–$69.6M | — | -$1.15 | — | ±28% | High7 |
FY2024 | $485.0M $475.4M–$497.1M | ▲ +735.9% | $0.00 | — | — | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $610.5M $599.2M–$622.6M | ▲ +25.9% | $3.20 | — | ±12% | Moderate4 |
Dividend per payment — last 4 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
JCAP News
About
Jernigan Capital, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of debt and equity capital. It invests primarily in new or recently-constructed and opened self-storage facilities located predominately in dense urban submarket. The company was founded by Dean Jernigan in October 1, 2014 and is headquartered in Memphis, TN.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JCAP◀ | $17.87 | -4.39% | $1.1B | 6.2 | +4153.9% | 3064.9% | 1500 |
| $297.81 | -0.70% | $798.0B | 14.1 | +330.7% | 2039.3% | 1503 | |
| $325.75 | +1.00% | $624.4B | 28.0 | +1134.0% | 5014.5% | 1500 | |
| $494.20 | +0.87% | $436.7B | 28.3 | +1641.6% | 4564.7% | 1490 | |
| $49.77 | -0.16% | $353.2B | 11.4 | -45.1% | 1592.6% | 1495 | |
| $192.51 | -1.04% | $303.6B | 16.6 | +1147.7% | 1466.4% | 1526 | |
| $948.47 | -2.11% | $279.8B | 15.9 | -138.4% | 1373.0% | 1526 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.93% | — | 17.2 | +1174.9% | 2730.8% | 1506 |