LendingClub (LC)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Quarterly loan origination volume and mix between held-for-investment versus held-for-sale
2. 02Net interest margin trends and deposit cost dynamics relative to loan yields
3. 03Credit performance metrics including charge-off rates and delinquency trends across vintages
4. 04Deposit growth and cost of funds relative to Fed funds rate
5. 05Loan sale execution prices and institutional investor demand for marketplace loans
6. 06Net interest income from loans held on balance sheet (estimated 55-60% of revenue)
7. 07Loan sales and servicing fees from marketplace channel (estimated 25-30%)
8. 08Transaction fees, late fees, and other service charges (estimated 10-15%)

LC Chart

My Notes

• growth - The stock attracts growth investors focused on fintech disruption, digital banking transformation…
• Rising rates have mixed effects: (1) Positive - higher benchmark rates allow LendingClub to reprice loans upward…
• Watch on earnings: Federal funds rate and trajectory of Fed policy (directly impacts funding costs and loan pricing), High yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) as proxy for institutional investor risk appetite for loan purchases, Unemployment rate trends (leading indicator of charge-off rates with 6-9 month lag).