Results are highly cyclical for MESA, so multiple-based fair value is less reliable here.
| FY | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2017 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.14 | 9.52 | 16.58 | 8.89 | 3.70 | — | — |
| Low | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.83 | 2.13 | 2.95 | 1.65 | 0.86 | — | — |
| Adj EPS | 193.70 | 403.46 | 305.98 | -76.04 | -553.32 | -452.12 | 376.23 | 1.96 | 0.82 | 1.02 | -0.81 | -1.69 | 0.47E | 0.68E |
| Chg/Yr | — | +108% | -24% | -125% | — | — | — | -99% | -58% | +24% | -179% | — | — | +45% |
| Div | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — |
Fair value (7.0x) multiplies each year's earnings per share by a growth-based multiple: steady growers (5–15% a year) get 15x, faster growers get their growth rate as the multiple (capped at 30x), and slower growers step down below 15x. MESA has grown earnings about -31.6% a year, so the line uses 7.0x.
Earnings are adjusted figures on the same basis analysts forecast, built from reported quarters; years beyond the last completed fiscal year use the analyst consensus (dashed). The verdict calls a stock over- or undervalued only when the price sits more than 10% from the fair value line.