MGY
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026 · After close
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move+2.60%Positive session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 46Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
28.81
Open
29.17
Day Range28.86 – 29.58
28.86
29.58
52W Range21.07 – 32.76
21.07
32.76
73% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
2.8M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
17.1x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.02%
Beta
0.97
Market-like
Performance
1D
+2.60%
5D
+5.50%
1M
+4.86%
3M
+10.38%
6M
+28.52%
YTD
+35.04%
1Y
+29.82%
Best: YTD (+35.04%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
46% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 17x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.1 · FCF $2.01/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$5.47B
Revenue TTM$1.32B
Net Income TTM$322.15M
Free Cash Flow$367.98M
Gross Margin46.5%
Net Margin24.4%
Operating Margin32.7%
Return on Equity16.4%
Return on Assets10.9%
Debt / Equity0.20
Current Ratio1.10
EPS TTM$1.76
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

WTI crude oil spot prices and forward curve expectations - direct impact on revenue and cash flow generation

Quarterly production volumes and well productivity metrics from South Texas drilling programs

Capital allocation decisions - dividend increases, buyback authorizations, and drilling budget adjustments

Operational efficiency metrics - drilling costs per lateral foot, completion costs, and days-to-drill improvements

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Oil prices are highly correlated with global GDP growth, industrial activity, and transportation demand. Economic expansion drives crude consumption while recessions reduce demand. As a pure-play E&P with 70%+ oil revenue exposure, MGY's cash flows move directly with the economic cycle. The company's South Texas position benefits from domestic refining demand, but global supply-demand dynamics dominate pricing.

Interest Rates

Rising rates have moderate negative impact through two channels: (1) Higher discount rates compress E&P valuation multiples, particularly affecting long-duration reserve values, and (2) Increased cost of capital for drilling programs, though MGY's low 0.20x leverage minimizes refinancing risk. The 8.6% FCF yield provides some buffer against rate competition. Conversely, rate increases often signal economic strength which supports oil demand.

Key Risks

Energy transition and peak oil demand concerns - long-term policy shifts toward electrification and renewables could structurally reduce crude demand beyond 2030, though transportation fuel demand remains robust through 2026

Regulatory and environmental restrictions - potential federal or state limitations on drilling permits, flaring regulations, methane emission rules, or water disposal restrictions in Texas could increase operating costs or constrain activity

Well depletion and reserve replacement - maintaining production requires continuous drilling due to 30-50% annual decline rates; failure to efficiently replace reserves would erode asset value

Investor Profile

value - The 8.6% FCF yield, 3.6x P/S ratio, and 5.6x EV/EBITDA valuation attract value investors seeking cash flow generation and capital return in a commodity-exposed name. The 0.20x leverage and disciplined capital allocation appeal to investors wanting energy exposure without excessive balance sheet risk. Dividend-focused investors are drawn to sustainable payout ratios funded by free cash flow. The stock underperforms in growth-oriented markets but outperforms when investors prioritize cash returns and commodity leverage.

Watch on Earnings
WTI crude oil spot price and 12-month forward strip pricingWeekly EIA crude oil inventory levels and days of supplyPermian Basin rig count and completion activity trendsHenry Hub natural gas prices (affects associated gas revenue stream)
Health Radar
3 strong3 watch
60/100
Liquidity
1.10Watch
Leverage
0.20Strong
Coverage
19.3xStrong
ROE
16.4%Strong
ROIC
13.1%Watch
Cash
$267MWatch
ANALYST COVERAGE24 analysts
BUY
-1.9%downside to target
L $26.00
Med $29.00consensus
H $34.00
Buy
1250%
Hold
1250%
12 Buy (50%)12 Hold (50%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
4/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 46 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.10
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 17, 2026
In 93 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

PullbackGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 17.3%

-0.4% vs SMA 50 · +16.8% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI45.9
Neutral territory
MACD-0.27
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$32.76+10.8%
Current
$29.56
EMA 50
$28.84-2.4%
EMA 200
$26.02-12.0%
52W Low
$21.07-28.7%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$21.0773th %ile$32.76
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:0
Dist days:3
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)2.7M
Recent Vol (5D)
2.4M-11%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 12 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$1.3B
$1.2B$1.4B
$1.74
±3%
High12
FY2026(current)
$1.6B
$1.3B$1.7B
+21.1%$2.82+61.7%
±12%
High10
FY2027
$1.5B
$1.4B$1.7B
-3.3%$2.50-11.2%
±21%
High10
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryMGY
Last 8Q
+5.3%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quarters Estimates falling
+6%
Q3'24
+10%
Q4'24
+7%
Q1'25
+4%
Q2'25
+7%
Q3'25
Q4'25
+3%
Q1'26
+6%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
CitigroupNeutral → Buy
Jan 16
UPGRADE
CitigroupSell → Neutral
Jan 14
UPGRADE
KeyBancSector Weight → Overweight
Oct 15
UPGRADE
CitigroupSell → Reduce
Mar 5
DOWNGRADE
Wells FargoUnderperform → Underweight
Oct 1
DOWNGRADE
Piper SandlerOverweight → Neutral
Apr 19
DOWNGRADE
KeyBancSector Weight
Aug 10
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Szabo ShandellDir
$375K
Mar 30
SELL
Acosta ArciliaDir
$560K
Mar 9
SELL
Djerejian Edward PDir
$522K
Mar 10
SELL
Corales BrianCFO
$961K
Mar 9
SELL
Yang Timothy D.EVP, CHIEF LEG…
$4.4M
Mar 9
SELL
Stavros Christopher…Dir
$3.5M
Mar 9
SELL
Financials
Dividends2.13% yield
+14.6% avg annual growth
Annual Yield2.13%
Quarterly Div.$0.1650
Est. Annual / Share$0.66
FrequencyQuarterly
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26
Q2'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
29.5M
2
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
10.5M
3
STATE STREET CORP
9.5M
4
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
7.0M
5
JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC
6.3M
6
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
6.3M
7
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.
5.2M
8
MACQUARIE MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS, INC.
5.0M
News & Activity

MGY News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Magnolia is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations primarily in South Texas in the core of the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. Magnolia focuses on generating value for shareholders through steady production growth, strong pre-tax margins, and free cash flow.

Industry
Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction
Brian Michael CoralesSenior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting & Financial Officer
Christopher G. StavrosPresident, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman
Jim JohnsonVice President of Finance, IR & Treasurer
PeersEnergy(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
MGY
$29.56+2.60%$5.5B16.8-30.7%2479.3%1500
$157.93+3.37%$654.6B26.1-452.2%890.5%1500
$191.06+2.37%$380.5B34.4-464.4%666.9%1491
$122.41+2.89%$149.1B20.5+751.1%1360.5%1501
$77.72+0.04%$95.1B33.5+1377.7%2190.8%1503
$55.38-0.66%$82.8B25.1-159.8%938.1%1514
$33.63+0.69%$74.8B22.6+1245.3%1802.9%1498
Sector avg+1.61%25.6+323.8%1475.6%1501