NABL
Earnings in 3 days · May 7, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+3.95%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.4× avgLight volume
Technical
1
RSIRSI 59Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
5.31
Open
5.32
Day Range5.32 – 5.63
5.32
5.63
52W Range4.15 – 9.04
4.15
9.04
28% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.6M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
-61.3x
Not profitable
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
0.98
Market-like
Performance
1D
+2.61%
5D
+1.72%
1M
+10.17%
3M
-8.29%
6M
-31.04%
YTD
-29.01%
1Y
-25.94%
Best: 1M (+10.17%)Worst: 6M (-31.04%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +10% YoY · 78% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E not available
Health
MODERATE
CR 1.2 · FCF $0.39/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.04B
Revenue TTM$511.43M
Net Income TTM-$17.03M
Free Cash Flow$72.28M
Gross Margin77.9%
Net Margin-3.3%
Operating Margin7.7%
Return on Equity-2.1%
Return on Assets-1.2%
Debt / Equity0.57
Current Ratio1.19
EPS TTM$-0.09
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Net revenue retention rate and MSP customer churn metrics (indicates pricing power and competitive positioning)

Devices under management (DUM) growth and average revenue per device trends

New product attach rates for security and automation modules beyond core RMM

MSP industry consolidation activity and competitive win/loss rates against Kaseya and ConnectWise

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

moderate - Revenue exhibits defensive characteristics as MSPs provide essential IT support to SMBs, but growth rates compress during recessions when small business failures increase and IT budgets tighten. New MSP formation slows in downturns, reducing new customer pipeline. However, existing subscription base provides revenue stability with estimated 90%+ gross retention. SMB technology spending correlates with GDP growth but lags broader economic cycles by 2-3 quarters.

Interest Rates

Rising rates create modest headwinds through two channels: (1) Higher discount rates compress valuation multiples for SaaS companies trading at 2.0x sales, particularly impacting growth-oriented investors; (2) Elevated rates reduce SMB capital expenditure on IT infrastructure, potentially slowing endpoint growth for MSP clients. However, minimal direct impact on operations given low debt levels (0.45x D/E) and positive operating cash flow. Current 16.0x EV/EBITDA multiple suggests rate sensitivity already reflected in valuation.

Key Risks

Platform consolidation by larger competitors (Kaseya's aggressive M&A strategy, potential Microsoft entry into MSP tools market) could compress pricing and market share

Shift toward integrated cybersecurity platforms may commoditize standalone RMM functionality, requiring accelerated R&D investment to maintain differentiation

AI-driven IT automation could reduce MSP labor requirements and endpoint management complexity, potentially lowering willingness to pay for management tools

Investor Profile

value - Current 2.0x price/sales and 16.0x EV/EBITDA multiples represent significant compression from historical SaaS valuations, attracting value investors seeking recovery potential. The 47% one-year decline has created entry point for investors believing SMB IT spending stabilizes and competitive positioning holds. Positive free cash flow generation (5.6% yield) appeals to cash-flow focused investors. Limited institutional ownership following spin-off creates potential catalyst if operational execution improves. Not attractive to growth investors given 10.5% revenue growth rate below SaaS peer median of 15-20%.

Watch on Earnings
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (leading indicator for SMB IT spending and MSP client health)ISM Services PMI (correlates with business services demand including managed IT services)Net revenue retention rate disclosed in quarterly results (target: 100%+ indicates expansion revenue)Competitive displacement win rates in RMM platform migrations
Health Radar
1 strong1 watch4 concern
26/100
Liquidity
1.19Watch
Leverage
0.57Strong
Coverage
1.1xConcern
ROE
-2.1%Concern
ROIC
-22.8%Concern
Cash
$112MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE5 analysts
HOLD
-2.6%downside to target
L $5.25
Med $5.38consensus
H $5.50
Buy
240%
Hold
240%
Sell
120%
2 Buy (40%)2 Hold (40%)1 Sell (20%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
2 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 59 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowAccumulation — institutional buying
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.19
~
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 5, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 2, 2026
In 90 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 25.2%

+2.7% vs SMA 50 · -23.2% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI58.8
Positive momentum, not extended
MACD+0.03
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$9.04+63.8%
EMA 200
$6.96+26.1%
Current
$5.52
EMA 50
$5.48-0.8%
52W Low
$4.14-24.9%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$4.1428th %ile$9.04
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:1
Edge:Even
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.1M
Recent Vol (5D)
655K-42%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 4 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$449.2M
$447.8M$450.3M
$0.18
±0%
Moderate3
FY2024
$463.8M
$463.7M$463.8M
+3.3%$0.45+158.6%
±1%
Moderate4
FY2025
$508.2M
$508.1M$508.3M
+9.6%$0.42-6.9%
±0%
Moderate4
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryNABL
Last 8Q
+17.7%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates falling
+10%
Q2'24
+17%
Q3'24
+30%
Q4'24
+25%
Q1'25
+33%
Q2'25
+22%
Q3'25
+44%
Q4'25
-40%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/2 SellsNet Selling
Adler Michael IEVP, CTPO
$245K
Aug 19
SELL
Johnson AnnDir
$266K
Aug 18
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
THOMA BRAVO, L.P.
50.1M
2
Conestoga Capital Advisors, LLC
253K
3
Nuveen, LLC
222K
4
THRIVENT FINANCIAL FOR LUTHERANS
50K
5
State of Alaska, Department of Revenue
46K
6
Skopos Labs, Inc.
44K
7
WEALTH ENHANCEMENT ADVISORY SERVICES, LLC
40K
8
Impact Partnership Wealth, LLC
37K
News & Activity

NABL News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

No description available.

Christopher StagnoGroup Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer
John PagliucaChief Executive Officer, President & Director
Vikram RameshSenior Vice President & Chief Marketing Officer
PeersTechnology(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
NABL
$5.52+2.61%$1.0B+971.4%-333.0%1500
$198.54-0.56%$4.8T40.2+6547.4%5560.3%1495
$276.87+3.28%$4.1T33.6+642.6%2691.5%1494
$413.62+1.57%$3.1T24.6+1493.2%3614.6%1477
$416.54+0.92%$2.0T80.0+2387.4%3619.8%1504
$576.45+4.84%$611.5B25.3+4885.1%2284.5%1534
$341.54+1.71%$587.8B135.6+3433.8%1251.5%1517
Sector avg+2.05%56.5+2908.7%2669.9%1503