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9/1/26
Origin Energy (OGFGY)
Tuesday
3:41 AM
ThesisOrigin Energy: the story is balanced — Asian LNG spot prices and Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) forward curve - directly impacts APLNG revenue realization and equity…
★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $15.4B — +2.2% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
01Asian LNG spot prices and Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) forward curve - directly impacts APLNG revenue realization and equity accounting income
02Australian east coast wholesale electricity prices (particularly Queensland and New South Wales pool prices) - affects retail margin compression/expansion
03APLNG production volumes and well performance in Surat Basin CSG fields - quarterly production guidance vs actuals
04Australian energy policy changes including renewable energy targets, coal plant closures, and capacity market mechanisms
05Foreign exchange AUD/USD rate - LNG revenues in USD while costs predominantly in AUD, creating natural currency sensitivity
06Energy Markets (retail electricity and natural gas sales to residential/commercial customers) - approximately 65-70% of revenue
07Integrated Gas (APLNG CSG production, processing, and LNG export) - approximately 25-30% of revenue
08Other (renewable energy development, battery storage projects) - approximately 5% of revenue
dividend - Origin historically maintained 4-6% dividend yield attracting Australian income-focused investors and retirees seeking franked…
Moderate sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) APLNG project debt (~$8B) is largely fixed-rate but refinancing risk exists…
Watch on earnings: JKM (Japan-Korea Marker) LNG spot price and 12-month forward curve, Australian NEM wholesale electricity prices (Queensland and NSW quarterly baseload), APLNG quarterly production volumes (PJ) and unit cash costs ($/GJ).
One Sentence Summary:
Origin Energy: the story is balanced — asian lng spot prices and japan-korea marker (jkm) forward curve - directly impacts aplng revenue realization and equity accounting income.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.
