3-2-1 crack spreads in Group 3 (Chicago) and PADD 1 (East Coast) markets—widening spreads above $20/bbl drive significant earnings beats
WTI-Brent crude differential and access to discounted Canadian heavy crude via rail, with $5+ Brent premium benefiting coastal refineries
Refinery utilization rates across the six-facility system—sustained operation above 92% indicates strong demand and margin capture
Gasoline demand seasonality with summer driving season (May-August) typically generating 35-40% of annual EBITDA
high - Gasoline and diesel demand correlates strongly with GDP growth, vehicle miles traveled, and industrial activity. Economic expansions drive 3-5% annual demand growth while recessions can reduce consumption 5-8%. Refining margins compress during demand destruction as product inventories build. The company's exposure to discretionary driving (gasoline) and freight activity (diesel) creates direct linkage to consumer spending and manufacturing output.
Moderate impact through two channels: (1) $1.4B net debt (0.55 D/E ratio) creates ~$70-100M annual interest expense sensitivity to 100bps rate moves, though much is fixed-rate; (2) Higher rates reduce consumer discretionary spending on travel/driving, potentially lowering gasoline demand by 1-2% and compressing crack spreads. Valuation multiples contract as refining stocks trade at higher FCF yields when risk-free rates rise.
Long-term gasoline demand erosion from electric vehicle adoption—EVs reaching 15-20% market share by 2030 could reduce gasoline consumption 8-12%, though diesel demand remains resilient for freight
Renewable fuel mandates (RFS) and Low Carbon Fuel Standards increasing compliance costs $200-400M annually, with RIN prices volatile between $0.50-2.00 per credit
Refinery rationalization risk as older, less complex facilities face closure—industry capacity has declined 1.0 MBpd since 2020, benefiting survivors but creating stranded asset risk for marginal facilities
value/cyclical - Attracts deep value investors during margin troughs (P/B below 0.8x) and energy opportunists betting on crack spread normalization. The stock trades as a leveraged play on refining margins rather than stable cash flow. High volatility and negative recent FCF deter income-focused investors. Typical holders include energy-specialized hedge funds and contrarian value managers willing to time the refining cycle.
No analyst coverage available for this stock.
Trend
+1.3% vs SMA 50 · +29.3% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
PBF News
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About
our mission is to identify attractive acquisition opportunities in the petroleum refining industry in north america and execute acquisitions that provide superior returns to our investors, provide employees with a safe and rewarding workplace, and become a positive influence in the communities where we do business.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PBF◀ | $43.00 | -0.83% | $5.1B | 11.4 | -1142.4% | -54.0% | 1500 |
| $152.81 | -0.98% | $635.2B | 25.3 | -452.2% | 890.5% | 1497 | |
| $190.63 | -1.39% | $380.4B | 34.3 | -464.4% | 666.9% | 1490 | |
| $123.19 | -2.06% | $150.2B | 20.6 | +751.1% | 1360.5% | 1503 | |
| $75.54 | -1.01% | $92.4B | 35.3 | +1377.7% | 2190.8% | 1497 | |
| $56.92 | +0.07% | $85.1B | 25.8 | -159.8% | 938.1% | 1515 | |
| $138.95 | -1.15% | $74.4B | 15.0 | -346.9% | 2206.8% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.05% | — | 24.0 | -62.4% | 1171.4% | 1500 |