PGY
Next earnings: Aug 6, 2026
Signal
Leaning Bullish1
Price
1
Move-0.44%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume0.9× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 51Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
13.60
Open
13.40
Day Range13.05 – 13.65
13.05
13.65
52W Range10.40 – 44.99
10.40
44.99
9% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
3.5M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.1x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Performance
1D
+3.34%
5D
-14.03%
1M
+4.53%
3M
+9.41%
6M
-43.14%
YTD
-34.93%
1Y
-9.69%
Best: 3M (+9.41%)Worst: 6M (-43.14%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +23% YoY · 41% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 12x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.6 · FCF $2.65/sh
Strong Buy
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$1.12B
Revenue TTM$1.30B
Net Income TTM$98.19M
Free Cash Flow$234.07M
Gross Margin41.4%
Net Margin7.6%
Operating Margin21.8%
Return on Equity21.6%
Return on Assets6.0%
Debt / Equity1.81
Current Ratio1.63
EPS TTM$1.11
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Network volume growth - total dollar value of loans originated through platform quarter-over-quarter

Credit performance of existing loan portfolios - delinquency and charge-off rates relative to underwriting expectations

Institutional investor demand for consumer credit assets - availability and cost of capital from funding partners

Regulatory developments affecting AI-based lending or consumer credit markets

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Consumer credit demand and performance are highly cyclical. During economic expansions, loan origination volumes increase as consumers borrow for purchases and debt consolidation, while credit performance remains strong. Recessions drive higher delinquencies and charge-offs on existing portfolios, reducing institutional investor appetite for consumer credit assets and constraining Pagaya's network volume. The 25.6% revenue growth reflects strong recent economic conditions, but the business model is vulnerable to consumer spending slowdowns and rising unemployment.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates create mixed effects. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for consumers, reducing loan demand and origination volumes. However, rates also affect the company's funding costs and institutional investor return requirements - as risk-free rates rise, investors demand higher yields on consumer credit, potentially compressing Pagaya's fee margins. The current elevated rate environment (relative to 2020-2021) has likely pressured network volumes. Conversely, rate cuts would stimulate consumer borrowing demand and improve credit accessibility.

Key Risks

Regulatory scrutiny of AI-based lending algorithms for potential bias or fair lending violations, particularly as regulators increase focus on algorithmic decision-making in financial services

Commoditization risk as traditional banks and competitors develop similar AI underwriting capabilities, eroding Pagaya's technological differentiation and pricing power

Secular shift toward tighter consumer lending standards or regulatory caps on interest rates/fees that constrain addressable market

Investor Profile

growth - The company attracts growth investors focused on fintech disruption and AI applications in financial services, given 25.6% revenue growth and improving profitability trajectory. The recent 120% net income growth and transition to sustained profitability appeals to growth-at-reasonable-price investors. However, extreme volatility (-63% six-month return) and credit cycle sensitivity deter conservative growth investors. The 0.8x price/sales ratio suggests value investors may also be attracted to the depressed valuation, though credit risks remain elevated.

Watch on Earnings
High yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) as proxy for institutional investor risk appetite for consumer credit assetsConsumer delinquency rates on personal loans and auto loans (industry data) to assess credit cycle positioningFederal funds rate trajectory and forward guidance impacting consumer borrowing costs and loan demandUnemployment rate trends as leading indicator of consumer credit stress
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
48/100
Liquidity
1.63Watch
Leverage
1.81Watch
Coverage
0.0xConcern
ROE
21.6%Strong
ROIC
17.9%Strong
Cash
$288MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE11 analysts
BUY
+140.0%upside to target
L $25.00
Med $32.50consensus
H $35.00
Buy
873%
Hold
327%
8 Buy (73%)3 Hold (27%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
7/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 51 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.63 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 48.6%

+9.8% vs SMA 50 · -43.6% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI50.9
Neutral territory
MACD+0.40
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$44.99+232.3%
EMA 200
$21.46+58.5%
EMA 50
$13.89+2.6%
Current
$13.54
52W Low
$10.40-23.2%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$10.409th %ile$44.99
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:3
Dist days:6
Edge:+3 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)3.4M
Recent Vol (5D)
3.6M+6%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 7 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↑ Revised Up

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2023
$925.4M
$881.9M$947.7M
-$2.05
±5%
High6
FY2024
$1.0B
$967.1M$1.0B
+9.7%-$2.66
±21%
High7
FY2025
$1.3B
$1.3B$1.3B
+29.7%$0.89
±5%
High6
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryPGY
Last 8Q
+5.7%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates rising
-50%
Q3'24
+76%
Q4'24
-47%
Q1'25
+72%
Q2'25
-7%
Q3'25
+9%
Q4'25
+5%
Q1'26
-12%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Canaccord GenuityHold → Buy
Feb 16
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
NET SELLERS$0 bought · $147K sold · 30d window
Rosen TamiDir
$147K
Apr 17
SELL
Perros EvangelosCFO
$147K
Apr 1
SELL
Das SanjivPresident
$107K
Mar 12
SELL
Perros EvangelosCFO
$93K
Mar 12
SELL
Rosen TamiChief Developm…
$65K
Mar 12
SELL
Vieira CoryChief Accounti…
$27K
Mar 2
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
4.5M
2
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
1.9M
3
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP
1.9M
4
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC
1.7M
5
MORGAN STANLEY
1.4M
6
BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE, SNC
1.2M
7
STATE STREET CORP
1.0M
8
Allspring Global Investments Holdings, LLC
1.0M
News & Activity

PGY News

About

No description available.

Avital PardoCo-Founder, Deputy CEO & Director
Yahav YulzariCo-Founder, Deputy CEO & Director
Sanjiv DasCo-Founder & President
PeersTechnology(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
PGY
$13.54+3.34%$1.1B12.2+2556.3%645.3%1500
$225.32-4.42%$5.5T45.6+6547.4%5560.3%1502
$300.23+0.68%$4.4T36.0+642.6%2691.5%1482
$421.92+3.05%$3.1T25.0+1493.2%3614.6%1460
$425.19-3.32%$2.0T80.7+2387.4%3619.8%1500
$724.66-6.62%$817.2B33.8+4885.1%2284.5%1532
$424.10-5.69%$691.5B138.6+3433.8%1251.5%1516
Sector avg-1.85%53.1+3135.1%2809.6%1499