RenaissanceRe (RNR)

What Moves the Stock

1. 01Catastrophe loss events - major hurricanes (Cat 3+), earthquakes (magnitude 7+), wildfires drive immediate 5-15% stock moves based on estimated industry losses and RNR's exposure
2. 02Reinsurance pricing trends at January 1 and June 1 renewal seasons - rate changes of +20-40% in hard markets vs -5-10% in soft markets directly impact premium growth and profitability
3. 03Combined ratio performance - every 1 point improvement in combined ratio (target 90-95%) translates to ~$125M additional underwriting profit
4. 04Book value per share growth - quarterly BVPS changes of 3-5% signal strong underwriting and investment returns, driving valuation multiples
5. 05Reserve development - favorable/adverse prior year reserve adjustments of $50-200M per quarter impact earnings quality perception
6. 06Property catastrophe reinsurance premiums (~45-50% of gross premiums written) covering hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires primarily in US, Japan, Europe
7. 07Casualty and specialty reinsurance (~30-35%) including professional liability, D&O, cyber, marine
8. 08Fee income from managing third-party capital vehicles and joint ventures (~5-8% of total revenue)

RNR Chart

My Notes

• value - RNR trades at 1.2x book value vs historical range of 1.0-1.5x, attracting value investors seeking underwriting expertise and capital…
• Rising interest rates are highly positive for RNR through two channels: (1) Investment income increases as $20B+ fixed income portfolio…
• Watch on earnings: Atlantic hurricane activity and NOAA seasonal forecasts - 14+ named storms signals elevated loss potential, January 1 and June 1 reinsurance renewal pricing indices (Guy Carpenter, Aon Benfield) - rate change momentum, 10-year Treasury yield - drives investment income reinvestment rates and reserve discount rates.