Clinical trial data readouts from lead programs (REC-994 in cerebral cavernous malformation, REC-4881 in familial adenomatous polyposis) - positive Phase 2 data can drive 30-50% single-day moves
New pharmaceutical partnership announcements with upfront payments exceeding $20M and validation of platform economics
AI platform capability demonstrations showing improved prediction accuracy or novel target identification versus traditional methods
FDA regulatory milestones including IND clearances for new pipeline programs and breakthrough therapy designations
low - Drug discovery and development spending by large pharmaceutical partners is largely acyclical and driven by patent cliffs, pipeline gaps, and long-term R&D budgets rather than GDP fluctuations. Biotech funding environment shows some correlation to risk appetite during severe recessions, but established partnerships with Roche and Bayer provide revenue stability. Clinical trial execution timelines are unaffected by economic cycles.
Rising interest rates create moderate headwinds through two channels: (1) higher discount rates compress NPV of distant cash flows from early-stage pipeline assets, disproportionately impacting pre-revenue biotech valuations and driving multiple compression from 30x+ sales to sub-20x during rate hiking cycles, and (2) tighter financial conditions reduce availability of follow-on equity financing and increase dilution risk when raising capital to fund clinical programs. However, the company's strong balance sheet (4.6x current ratio) and partnership revenue mitigate near-term refinancing risk. Rate cuts would provide valuation tailwind by improving risk asset appetite and biotech sector multiples.
AI/ML platform validation risk - if proprietary algorithms fail to demonstrate superior clinical success rates versus traditional drug discovery methods over 5-10 year timeframe, partnership economics and competitive differentiation erode significantly
Regulatory uncertainty around AI-discovered therapeutics as FDA develops evolving guidance on algorithm transparency, training data requirements, and validation standards for computationally-designed molecules
Technological disruption from competitors (Insitro, Exscientia, BenevolentAI) or large pharma in-house AI capabilities reducing willingness to pay for external platforms
growth - The stock attracts speculative growth investors and biotech specialists willing to accept 5-10 year investment horizons and binary clinical risk in exchange for potential 5-10x returns if platform validates and multiple programs reach commercialization. Negative earnings and cash flow eliminate value and income investors. The AI-driven approach appeals to technology crossover funds seeking healthcare exposure. Institutional ownership skewed toward healthcare-focused funds and venture capital firms from earlier funding rounds. High volatility (implied vol typically 60-80%) and -67% one-year return reflect risk-on/risk-off sentiment swings.
Trend
-12.4% vs SMA 50 · -33.2% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $70.7M $63.6M–$85.4M | — | -$1.54 | — | ±6% | High6 |
FY2025 | $61.5M $46.0M–$81.4M | ▼ -13.0% | -$1.57 | — | ±6% | High6 |
FY2026(current) | $61.2M $19.7M–$101.2M | ▼ -0.5% | -$0.92 | — | ±14% | High6 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
RXRX News
About
Recursion is a clinical-stage biotechnology company decoding biology by integrating technological innovations across biology, chemistry, automation, data science, and engineering, with the goal of radically improving the lives of patients and industrializing drug discovery. Central to its mission is the Recursion Operating System, or Recursion OS, that combines an advanced infrastructure layer to generate what Recursion believes is one of the world's largest and fastest-growing proprietary biological and chemical datasets and the Recursion Map, a suite of custom software, algorithms, and machine learning tools that the company uses to explore foundational biology unconstrained by human bias and navigate to new biological insights which may accelerate its programs. biotechnology company scaling more like a technology company.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RXRX◀ | $2.93 | -3.62% | $1.3B | — | +2692.4% | -86335.1% | 1500 |
| $66.13 | -5.07% | $13.0B | — | +12626.1% | -14525.8% | 1500 | |
| $94.92 | -3.79% | $12.6B | — | +3288.2% | -4239.0% | 1500 | |
| $523.69 | -3.00% | $12.1B | — | +43205.3% | -3008.0% | 1500 | |
| $227.72 | -1.30% | $11.7B | — | +6554.5% | -2868.8% | 1500 | |
| $57.90 | -0.86% | $11.2B | 50.3 | +1459.3% | 147.7% | 1500 | |
| $76.67 | -3.79% | $10.8B | — | +2325815.3% | -19.7% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -3.06% | — | 50.3 | +342234.4% | -15835.5% | 1500 |