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Thesis: Scholastic: the story is balanced — Book fair attendance and same-store sales growth—directly tied to school enrollment trends, parent engagement levels…
★ Analysts see FY2027 revenue reaching $1.7B — +3.9% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Book fair attendance and same-store sales growth—directly tied to school enrollment trends, parent engagement levels, and discretionary spending on children's books
2Education segment wins/losses in state adoption cycles—large multi-year contracts with states like Texas, California, Florida for literacy programs can swing annual revenue by $20-40M
3Digital transformation progress—shift from print to digital platforms (e.g., Scholastic Literacy Pro, digital book clubs) impacts margins and long-term growth trajectory
4New franchise launches or media adaptations—successful book-to-screen conversions (Netflix, Disney+) drive backlist sales and licensing revenue
5K-12 education budget trends—federal Title I funding, state education appropriations, and ESSER pandemic relief fund utilization directly impact Education segment demand
6Children's Book Publishing & Distribution (~60%): Trade publishing, book clubs, and school-based book fairs with high-margin proprietary titles
7Education Solutions (~25%): Supplemental literacy curriculum, classroom magazines (Weekly Reader brand), and digital learning platforms sold to K-12 schools
8International Operations (~15%): Book fairs, clubs, and trade publishing in English-speaking markets (Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand)
value - The stock trades at 0.5x sales and 0.9x book value, attracting deep value investors betting on turnaround potential…
Rising rates create modest headwinds through two channels: (1) increased borrowing costs on the company's $150M+ debt load…
Watch on earnings: US K-12 enrollment trends (NCES data)—leading indicator of addressable market size for both book fairs and education products, Consumer sentiment and discretionary spending (UMCSENT, PCE)—drives parent purchasing behavior at book fairs, which represent 40%+ of Children's segment revenue, State and local education funding appropriations—tracks budget availability for literacy program purchases and classroom magazine subscriptions.
One Sentence Summary:
Scholastic: the story is balanced — book fair attendance and same-store sales growth—directly tied to school enrollment trends, parent engagement levels.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.