Same-facility case volume growth rates (organic demand indicator, typically 2-5% quarterly growth)
Acquisition pipeline activity and integration execution (10-20 facilities annually at 6-8x EBITDA multiples)
Commercial payor mix percentage (commercial cases generate 200-300 bps higher margins than Medicare)
Surgical facility utilization rates and revenue per case trends (pricing power and efficiency metrics)
moderate - Elective surgical procedures (60-70% of case mix) are economically sensitive as patients defer non-urgent orthopedic, ophthalmology, and cosmetic procedures during recessions or when facing financial stress. However, essential procedures (colonoscopies, cataract surgeries, pain management) provide 30-40% revenue stability. Commercial insurance enrollment correlates with employment levels, affecting payor mix quality. Historical data shows 5-10% case volume declines during recessions, partially offset by Medicare volume stability.
Rising interest rates increase borrowing costs on the company's $1.4-1.6B debt load (estimated based on 2.24x D/E ratio), with floating-rate exposure on revolving credit facilities impacting interest expense by $3-5M per 100bps rate increase. Higher rates also pressure acquisition economics by increasing the cost of capital for leveraged facility purchases. Valuation multiples compress as healthcare services stocks trade at wider spreads to risk-free rates. However, ASC business model generates consistent cash flow (10% FCF yield), providing some defensive characteristics.
Medicare reimbursement rate pressure: CMS rate updates (typically 0-2% annually) lag cost inflation, compressing margins on 25-30% of case volume. Potential legislative changes to site-neutral payment policies could eliminate ASC cost advantages.
Regulatory scope-of-practice expansion: State-level scope expansions allowing procedures in physician offices or imaging centers could fragment case volumes. Certificate-of-Need (CON) laws in 35 states create barriers but also protect existing facilities from competition.
Physician alignment risks: ASC model depends on physician partnerships and referral relationships. Employed physician models at large health systems could redirect cases to hospital-owned facilities, reducing independent ASC volumes.
value - The stock trades at 0.6x P/S and 7.0x EV/EBITDA, well below healthcare services peers (typically 10-12x EBITDA), suggesting deep value opportunity if operational turnaround succeeds. The 10.1% FCF yield attracts value investors focused on cash generation despite negative reported earnings (driven by non-cash charges). However, negative net margin and high leverage create execution risk, requiring conviction in management's deleveraging and margin expansion strategy. Recent 38% one-year decline has created contrarian entry point for distressed/special situations investors.
Trend
+5.2% vs SMA 50 · -19.3% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Strong accumulation on above-average volume. Buyers are absorbing supply aggressively — any positive catalyst could trigger a rapid covering move.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $3.1B $3.1B–$3.2B | — | $0.85 | — | ±7% | High8 |
FY2025 | $3.3B $3.3B–$3.3B | ▲ +6.9% | $0.63 | ▼ -25.5% | ±7% | High8 |
FY2026(current) | $3.4B $3.4B–$3.4B | ▲ +3.6% | $0.41 | ▼ -34.8% | ±50% | High8 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
SGRY News
About
surgery partners is a leading operator of surgical facilities and ancillary services with more than 180 locations nationwide. we provide exceptional integrated healthcare experiences between our providers and patients. our diverse company operates multiple types of healthcare services dedicated to improving the quality of care in a convenient and cost-effective manner. the support of our ancillary services is one of many unique attributes that differentiate us from our competitors. these services are comprised of a diagnostic laboratory, multi-specialty physician practices, urgent care facilities, anesthesia services, optical services and specialty pharmacy services. our integrated approach to advancing markets allows for flexibility to provide care on an individualized, local market basis. whether entering into a new market with surgical facilities, ancillary services or joint ventures with health systems, or furthering an existing market’s growth potential by focusing on base busines
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SGRY◀ | $13.95 | -3.66% | $1.8B | — | +624.2% | -235.4% | 1500 |
| $66.13 | -5.07% | $13.0B | — | +12626.1% | -14525.8% | 1500 | |
| $94.92 | -3.79% | $12.6B | — | +3288.2% | -4239.0% | 1500 | |
| $523.69 | -3.00% | $12.1B | — | +43205.3% | -3008.0% | 1500 | |
| $227.72 | -1.96% | $11.7B | — | +6554.5% | -2868.8% | 1500 | |
| $57.90 | -0.86% | $11.2B | 50.3 | +1459.3% | 147.7% | 1500 | |
| $76.67 | -3.79% | $10.8B | — | +2325815.3% | -19.7% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -3.16% | — | 50.3 | +341939.0% | -3535.6% | 1500 |