FDA regulatory decision on DCCR NDA - binary approval/rejection catalyst representing primary near-term driver
Clinical data readouts or post-marketing study results demonstrating efficacy/safety in PWS population
Commercial launch execution metrics if approved - patient enrollment rates, prescriber adoption, reimbursement coverage decisions
Cash runway updates and financing activities - equity raises dilute shareholders but extend operational timeline
low - Rare disease treatments for serious genetic disorders are medically necessary and non-discretionary. PWS patients require continuous management regardless of economic conditions. However, biotech sector valuations are cyclical and correlate with risk appetite, IPO markets, and broader healthcare spending trends. Economic downturns can pressure biotech stock multiples even when underlying business fundamentals are insulated.
Rising interest rates negatively impact Soleno through multiple channels: (1) Higher discount rates compress NPV of future cash flows, particularly punitive for pre-revenue companies with distant profitability; (2) Increases cost of capital for future financing needs, though company currently has strong cash position; (3) Risk-off sentiment in rate-hiking cycles reduces speculative capital flows to clinical-stage biotech; (4) Competition from risk-free rates makes high-risk biotech investments less attractive on relative basis. Rate cuts would provide valuation tailwind.
Binary FDA approval risk - NDA rejection would eliminate near-term value proposition and require additional costly trials or program termination
Orphan drug market size constraints - addressable PWS population of 15,000-20,000 US patients limits peak revenue potential versus large indication drugs
Reimbursement uncertainty - payers may challenge pricing or impose restrictive coverage criteria despite orphan status, limiting commercial uptake
growth/speculative - Attracts biotech-focused investors, event-driven hedge funds playing binary FDA catalysts, and rare disease specialists. High-risk/high-reward profile appeals to investors comfortable with clinical-stage volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Not suitable for income or value investors given zero revenue, negative cash flow, and absence of dividends. Requires conviction in PWS market opportunity and DCCR clinical profile. Typical holders include biotech-dedicated funds, crossover healthcare investors, and momentum traders around regulatory catalysts.
Trend
+32.9% vs SMA 50 · -5.4% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $187.5M $179.7M–$195.3M | — | $0.29 | — | ±50% | High10 |
FY2026(current) | $467.1M $446.6M–$493.6M | ▲ +149.2% | $3.95 | ▲ +1247.2% | ±20% | High10 |
FY2027 | $704.7M $595.9M–$819.5M | ▲ +50.9% | $6.29 | ▲ +59.2% | ±36% | High8 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
SLNO News
About
soleno therapeutics, inc. is focused on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases. the company is currently advancing its lead candidate, dccr, a once-daily oral tablet for the treatment of pws, into a phase iii clinical development program in early 2018.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SLNO◀ | $53.01 | +0.00% | $2.8B | 28.8 | — | — | 1500 |
| $66.13 | -5.07% | $13.0B | — | +12626.1% | -14525.8% | 1500 | |
| $94.92 | -3.79% | $12.6B | — | +3288.2% | -4239.0% | 1500 | |
| $523.69 | -3.00% | $12.1B | — | +43205.3% | -3008.0% | 1500 | |
| $227.72 | -1.96% | $11.7B | — | +6554.5% | -2868.8% | 1500 | |
| $57.90 | -0.86% | $11.2B | 50.3 | +1459.3% | 147.7% | 1500 | |
| $76.67 | -3.79% | $10.8B | — | +2325815.3% | -19.7% | 1500 | |
| Sector avg | — | -2.64% | — | 39.5 | +398824.8% | -4085.6% | 1500 |