SMCI
Signal
Bullish Setup2
Price
1
Move+3.06%Strong session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 53Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
27.09
Open
27.45
Day Range27.34 – 28.50
27.34
28.50
52W Range19.48 – 62.36
19.48
62.36
20% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
35.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
20.4x
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.41
Market-like
Performance
1D
+3.06%
5D
+3.29%
1M
+26.62%
3M
-17.30%
6M
-41.10%
YTD
-4.61%
1Y
-13.21%
Best: 1M (+26.62%)Worst: 6M (-41.10%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +35% · 8% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 20x vs ~20x sector
Health
STRONG
CR 1.7 · FCF $0.74/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$16.72B
Revenue TTM$28.06B
Net Income TTM$872.78M
Free Cash Flow$440.09M
Gross Margin8.0%
Net Margin3.1%
Operating Margin3.7%
Return on Equity13.3%
Return on Assets3.1%
Debt / Equity0.70
Current Ratio1.70
EPS TTM$1.46
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

AI infrastructure capex guidance from hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google) and GPU availability from NVIDIA

Quarterly revenue guidance and backlog commentary, particularly for next-generation GPU platform ramps (H100, H200, Blackwell)

Gross margin trajectory - compression from competitive pricing vs. expansion from liquid cooling attach rates and product mix

Market share gains/losses in AI server market vs. Dell, HPE, and ODMs (Wistron, Quanta)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Enterprise IT capex is cyclical and sensitive to GDP growth, corporate profitability, and technology refresh cycles. However, current AI infrastructure buildout represents a multi-year secular growth wave that partially insulates from near-term economic weakness. Hyperscaler capex (70%+ of cloud infrastructure spending) correlates with cloud revenue growth rates rather than broad GDP.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Higher rates pressure hyperscaler valuations and capex budgets, potentially slowing AI infrastructure spending; (2) SMCI's working capital financing costs increase with rates given inventory-intensive build-to-order model and 60-90 day payment terms. However, AI infrastructure is currently viewed as strategic necessity rather than discretionary capex, reducing rate sensitivity vs. traditional IT hardware cycles.

Key Risks

Commoditization of AI server market as hyperscalers increasingly design custom systems in-house (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium) or work directly with ODMs, bypassing branded server vendors

NVIDIA vertical integration risk - potential for NVIDIA to partner more closely with ODMs or offer complete systems, reducing SMCI's value-add as system integrator

Accounting and internal controls concerns following Hindenburg Research short report (August 2024) and delayed 10-K filing, creating ongoing governance overhang

Investor Profile

growth - Stock trades on AI infrastructure growth narrative with 46% revenue growth and exposure to secular GPU-accelerated computing trend. However, recent accounting concerns and margin compression have attracted short-term traders and volatility-focused investors. Low valuation multiples (0.7x P/S) reflect governance discount and margin sustainability questions despite strong topline growth.

Watch on Earnings
NVIDIA GPU supply allocation and next-generation platform launch timelines (Blackwell, Rubin roadmap)Hyperscaler capex guidance (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon quarterly earnings) as leading indicator for AI server demandGross margin percentage - target 12-15% range with liquid cooling mix as key driverBook-to-bill ratio and backlog commentary for forward revenue visibility
Health Radar
3 strong2 watch1 concern
67/100
Liquidity
1.70Watch
Leverage
0.70Strong
Coverage
12.0xStrong
ROE
13.3%Watch
ROIC
6.8%Concern
Cash
$5.2BStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE21 analysts
HOLD
+43.3%upside to target
L $26.00
Med $40.00consensus
H $64.00
Buy
838%
Hold
1362%
8 Buy (38%)13 Hold (62%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
4 of 5 signals bullish
9/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 53 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowLean Accumulation
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 1.70 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings Report · Before OpenMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentSep 1, 2026
In 119 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBULLISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 26.6%

+0.5% vs SMA 50 · -26.3% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI52.5
Neutral territory
MACD+0.25
Above zero — bullish momentum · expanding
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$62.36+123.4%
EMA 200
$36.07+29.2%
Current
$27.92
EMA 50
$27.66-0.9%
52W Low
$19.48-30.2%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$19.4820th %ile$62.36
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Moderate Squeeze Setup

Accumulation pattern present — more buying days than selling over the past 20 sessions. Volume conditions support gradual price improvement.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:4
Dist days:1
Edge:+3 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)44.6M
Recent Vol (5D)
31.7M-29%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 12 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↑ Revised UpRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$14.9B
$13.9B$14.9B
$2.38
±0%
High11
FY2025
$22.3B
$21.9B$22.5B
+49.0%$2.10-11.9%
±3%
High10
FY2026(current)
$40.9B
$39.4B$42.7B
+83.8%$2.22+5.8%
±5%
High12
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistorySMCI
Last 8Q
+3.2%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 4 Estimates falling
+16%
Q2'24
-22%
Q3'24
+2%
Q4'24
+28%
Q1'25
-24%
Q2'25
-8%
Q3'25
-7%
Q4'25
+41%
Q1'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
KGI SecuritiesNeutral → Outperform
Nov 5
UPGRADE
BarclaysOverweight → Equal-Weight
Sep 4
DOWNGRADE
WedbushNeutral
Aug 23
UPGRADE
Zacks Investment Re…Buy
Apr 26
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/2 SellsNet Selling
Tuan ShermanDir
$1.6M
Nov 26
SELL
Kao GeorgeSVP, OPERATIONS
$1.9M
Nov 24
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
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1.5M
2
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1.4M
3
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1.2M
4
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857K
5
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487K
6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
395K
7
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382K
8
Nepsis Inc.
358K
News & Activity

SMCI News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

supermicro (nasdaq: smci) is a global leader in high performance, high efficiency server technology and innovation. we develop and provide end-to-end green computing solutions to the data center, cloud computing, enterprise it, big data, high performance computing, or hpc, and embedded markets. our solutions range from complete server, storage, blade and workstations to full racks, networking devices, server management software and technology support and services. we offer our customers a high degree of flexibility and customization by providing what we believe to be the industry's broadest array of server configurations from which they can choose the optimal solution which fits their computing needs. our server systems, subsystems and accessories are architecturally designed to provide high levels of reliability, quality and scalability, thereby enabling our customers benefits in the areas of compute performance, density, thermal management and power efficiency to lower their overall

CEO
Charles Liang
David E. WeigandCFO, Company Secretary & Senior VP
Jin XiaoSenior Corporate Vice President of Engineering
Vik MalyalaSenior Vice President, MD & President of the EMEA Division
PeersTechnology(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
SMCI
$27.92+3.06%$16.7B19.1+4658.5%477.4%1487
$198.48+0.02%$4.8T40.2+6547.4%5560.3%1495
$276.83-1.18%$4.1T33.2+642.6%2691.5%1494
$413.62-0.20%$3.1T24.5+1493.2%3614.6%1477
$416.50-1.13%$2.0T79.1+2387.4%3619.8%1504
$576.45+6.31%$650.1B26.9+4885.1%2284.5%1534
$341.54-5.27%$556.9B128.4+3433.8%1251.5%1517
Sector avg+0.23%50.2+3435.4%2785.6%1501