SMPL(SMPL)
SMPL
8/22/26
SIMPLY GOOD FOODS (SMPL)
Saturday
7:46 AM
Thesis: Simply Good Foods: the story is balanced — Retail velocity and market share trends in measured channels (IRI/Nielsen data) for Quest and Atkins brands
Revenue Outlook
What Moves the Stock
- 1Retail velocity and market share trends in measured channels (IRI/Nielsen data) for Quest and Atkins brands
- 2Gross margin performance driven by input costs (whey protein, almonds, sweeteners) and promotional intensity
- 3New product innovation success rates and contribution to total revenue growth
- 4Distribution gains or losses in key retail channels (Walmart, Target, Costco, Amazon)
- 5Consumer trends in low-carb/keto diet adoption and protein snacking penetration
- 6Quest Nutrition branded products (protein bars, chips, cookies) - estimated 55-60% of revenue
- 7Atkins branded products (bars, shakes, snacks) - estimated 35-40% of revenue
- 8Private label and other nutritional products - estimated 5% of revenue
FY2025 Snapshot
- Revenue
- $1.5B
- Rev. Growth
- +9.0%
- Gross Margin
- 35.1%
- Op. Margin
- 15.1%
- Net Margin
- 7.1%
- Net Income
- $104M
- NI Growth
- -25.6%
- EPS
- $1.03
- 1Y Return
- -62.3%
SMPL Chart
My Notes
- value - The stock trades at distressed multiples (0.9x P/B, 1.0x P/S) with 10.7% FCF yield…
- Low direct sensitivity as the company maintains conservative leverage (0.26 D/E ratio) with minimal refinancing risk.
- Watch on earnings: IRI/Nielsen measured channel market share data for nutritional bars and protein snacks categories, Whey protein concentrate spot prices (key input cost representing 15-20% of COGS), Retail out-of-stock rates and inventory weeks on hand at major customers.
One Sentence Summary:
Simply Good Foods: the story is balanced — retail velocity and market share trends in measured channels (iri/nielsen data) for quest and atkins brands.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.