Jet fuel prices (A1 fuel) - represents 25-30% of operating costs, with limited hedging exposing margins to crude oil volatility
Passenger load factors and yield (revenue per available seat mile) - leisure demand sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending
Amazon cargo contract renewals and expansion - provides stable revenue base and differentiates from pure-play ULCCs
Fleet expansion decisions and aircraft delivery timing - growth trajectory dependent on Boeing 737 MAX deliveries
high - Leisure travel demand is highly discretionary and correlates strongly with consumer confidence, employment levels, and disposable income. Sun Country's focus on vacation destinations (Caribbean, Mexico, Florida) makes revenue vulnerable to economic downturns when households cut travel budgets. The company lacks business travel exposure that provides demand stability. Charter operations provide partial offset but overall sensitivity to GDP growth and consumer spending remains elevated.
Rising interest rates negatively impact Sun Country through multiple channels: (1) higher financing costs on aircraft leases and debt refinancing given 0.95x debt/equity ratio, (2) reduced consumer discretionary spending as mortgage and credit card costs increase, dampening leisure travel demand, (3) valuation multiple compression as investors rotate from growth stocks to fixed income. The company's 0.82 current ratio indicates modest liquidity pressure if rates tighten credit availability.
ULCC business model commoditization - intensifying competition from Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant on overlapping leisure routes eroding pricing power and load factors
Boeing 737 MAX fleet concentration risk - delivery delays, operational issues, or safety concerns could disrupt growth plans and increase maintenance costs
Climate regulation and carbon pricing - potential future costs from emissions regulations or carbon taxes disproportionately impacting low-fare carriers with limited pricing power
momentum/value - The 77.9% three-month return and 74.1% six-month return indicate strong momentum investor interest, likely driven by post-pandemic leisure travel recovery and operational improvements. The 1.0x price/sales and 8.6x EV/EBITDA multiples suggest value characteristics relative to growth airlines. The 7.4% FCF yield attracts value-oriented investors seeking cash generation, while low 4.7% net margin and modest growth (4.7% revenue growth) limit pure growth investor appeal. The stock attracts tactical traders capitalizing on fuel price volatility and seasonal leisure demand patterns.
Trend
+19.8% vs SMA 50 · +40.8% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $1.1B $1.0B–$1.1B | — | $0.94 | — | ±4% | Moderate4 |
FY2024 | $1.1B $1.0B–$1.1B | ▲ +1.2% | $0.99 | ▲ +5.6% | ±3% | High6 |
FY2025 | $1.1B $1.1B–$1.2B | ▲ +4.3% | $1.07 | ▲ +7.7% | ±2% | High6 |
New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - May 5, 2026) - WHY: Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights l…
Sun Country Airlines is a new breed of hybrid low-cost air carrier that dynamically deploys shared resources across our synergistic scheduled service, charter and cargo businesses. Based in Minnesota, we focus on serving leisure and visiting friends and relatives ('VFR') passengers and charter customers and providing CMI service to Amazon, with flights throughout the United States and to destinations in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNCY◀ | $15.84 | -3.29% | $828M | 20.4 | +474.4% | 468.7% | 1500 |
| $903.15 | -1.67% | $407.0B | 43.0 | +429.0% | 1312.8% | 1522 | |
| $287.08 | -2.09% | $293.1B | 33.6 | +1848.2% | — | 1488 | |
| $172.46 | -0.63% | $232.8B | 32.1 | +974.1% | — | 1486 | |
| $225.12 | -2.67% | $174.5B | 79.9 | +3449.4% | 249.7% | 1504 | |
| $412.74 | -0.73% | $163.9B | 40.1 | +1033.0% | — | 1506 | |
| $263.57 | -1.09% | $156.4B | — | — | — | 1505 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.74% | — | 41.5 | +1368.0% | 677.1% | 1502 |