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Thesis: TEGNA: the story is balanced — Political advertising revenue - presidential election years can generate $200-300M incremental revenue vs off-years…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $3.0B — +11.8% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Political advertising revenue - presidential election years can generate $200-300M incremental revenue vs off-years, with 2024 being a major cycle and 2026 being a mid-term election year
2Retransmission consent renewal outcomes - negotiations with major MVPDs (Comcast, Charter, DirecTV) determine 3-5 year revenue trajectories with typical rate increases of 5-10% annually
3Local advertising market health - tied to employment, auto sales, and retail activity in key markets like Phoenix, Dallas, and Washington DC
4Cord-cutting trends and streaming bundle adoption - impacts subscriber counts used to calculate retransmission fees, though virtual MVPDs (YouTube TV, Hulu Live) partially offset traditional MVPD losses
6Retransmission consent fees (~50-55% of revenue) - recurring payments from cable/satellite/streaming distributors for carrying TEGNA stations
7Core advertising (~35-40% of revenue) - local spot advertising, national advertising, and digital advertising across owned stations and digital properties
8Political advertising (~5-15% of revenue, highly cyclical) - peaks in even-numbered years during election cycles, particularly presidential election years
value - TEGNA attracts value investors seeking high free cash flow yields (18.8% current), low valuation multiples (8.1x EV/EBITDA…
Rising rates have moderate negative impact through two channels: (1) Higher financing costs on $2.8B debt (mix of fixed and floating)…
Watch on earnings: Retransmission revenue per subscriber - tracks pricing power in MVPD negotiations, typically disclosed quarterly, Core advertising revenue trends excluding political - isolates underlying advertising market health from cyclical political noise, Total MVPD + virtual MVPD subscriber counts in TEGNA markets - determines retransmission fee revenue base.
One Sentence Summary:
TEGNA: the story is balanced — political advertising revenue - presidential election years can generate $200-300m incremental revenue vs off-years.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.