UPST
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026 · After close
Signal
Leaning Bearish1
Price
1
Move-0.67%Quiet session
Volume
1
Volume1.1× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 37Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
29.71
Open
29.06
Day Range28.40 – 30.67
28.40
30.67
52W Range23.97 – 87.30
23.97
87.30
9% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
5.0M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
72.0x
Premium valuation
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
2.85
High vol
Performance
1D
-0.67%
5D
-2.70%
1M
-11.54%
3M
-3.81%
6M
-23.79%
YTD
-32.52%
1Y
-37.73%
Worst: 1Y (-37.73%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +53% YoY · 96% gross margin
Valuation
EXPENSIVE
P/E 72x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 4.0 · FCF negative
Neutral
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$2.82B
Revenue TTM$1.16B
Net Income TTM$49.40M
Free Cash Flow-$286.78M
Gross Margin95.7%
Net Margin4.2%
Operating Margin4.2%
Return on Equity6.6%
Return on Assets1.7%
Debt / Equity2.70
Current Ratio4.03
EPS TTM$0.51
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Quarterly loan origination volumes and conversion rates - primary indicator of platform adoption and borrower demand

Bank partner funding capacity and willingness to purchase loans - directly impacts revenue generation ability

Credit performance metrics on existing loan vintages - validates AI model accuracy and affects partner confidence

Federal Reserve interest rate policy and credit market conditions - determines borrower affordability and lender appetite

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Loan origination volumes are highly sensitive to consumer confidence, employment stability, and discretionary spending capacity. During economic downturns, both borrower demand for unsecured personal loans declines and bank partners reduce funding allocations due to credit risk concerns. The company's revenue contracted significantly during 2022-2024 as rising rates reduced loan affordability and tightened credit conditions.

Interest Rates

Extremely high sensitivity to interest rate levels. Rising rates impact the business through multiple channels: (1) increased borrower APRs reduce loan affordability and demand, (2) higher funding costs cause bank partners to reduce loan purchases or demand higher yields, (3) competition from risk-free Treasury yields makes unsecured consumer loans less attractive to institutional investors. The 2022-2023 rate hiking cycle caused origination volumes to decline over 60% from peak levels. Conversely, rate cuts in 2024-2025 have begun restoring origination momentum.

Key Risks

Regulatory scrutiny of AI-based lending algorithms - CFPB and state regulators examining fair lending compliance, potential for adverse action requirements that could limit model effectiveness

Competition from traditional banks deploying proprietary AI models - JPMorgan, Bank of America, and others investing heavily in machine learning underwriting capabilities

Secular shift toward embedded finance - point-of-sale lenders (Affirm, Klarna) and BNPL products capturing share of consumer credit demand

Investor Profile

growth - Investors attracted to AI-driven disruption of traditional lending, high revenue growth potential during favorable credit cycles, and operating leverage story. Stock appeals to technology-focused growth investors rather than traditional financial services value investors. Extreme volatility and negative cash flow make it unsuitable for income or conservative investors.

Watch on Earnings
Federal funds effective rate and forward rate expectations - primary driver of loan affordability and origination volumesHigh-yield credit spreads (BAMLH0A0HYM2) - indicates institutional investor appetite for consumer loan assetsConsumer credit delinquency rates (DRCCLACBS) - leading indicator of credit environment and model performanceUnemployment rate - strong inverse correlation with loan performance and origination demand
Health Radar
2 strong4 concern
38/100
Liquidity
4.03Strong
Leverage
2.70Concern
Coverage
1.4xConcern
ROE
6.6%Concern
ROIC
1.8%Concern
Cash
$657MStrong
ANALYST COVERAGE22 analysts
HOLD
+25.4%upside to target
L $30.00
Med $37.00consensus
H $46.00
Buy
1045%
Hold
1045%
Sell
29%
10 Buy (45%)10 Hold (45%)2 Sell (10%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 37 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusHold
~
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 4.03 — healthy liquidity
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 17, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 14, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 31, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

RallyDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 35.4%

+2.3% vs SMA 50 · -33.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI37.3
Momentum fading
MACD-0.60
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$87.30+195.8%
EMA 200
$43.65+47.9%
EMA 50
$30.50+3.4%
Current
$29.51
52W Low
$23.96-18.8%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$23.969th %ile$87.30
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:1
Dist days:6
Edge:+5 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)4.8M
Recent Vol (5D)
4.5M-7%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 10 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2024
$599.1M
$598.2M$601.7M
-$0.47
±4%
High10
FY2025
$1.0B
$1.0B$1.1B
+73.0%$1.67
±7%
High9
FY2026(current)
$1.4B
$1.4B$1.4B
+36.1%$2.27+35.9%
±10%
High10
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryUPST
Last 8Q
+119.4%avg beat
Beat 6 of 8 quartersMissed 2 Estimates rising
+56%
Q3'24
+59%
Q4'24
+750%
Q1'25
+58%
Q2'25
+33%
Q3'25
+24%
Q4'25
-2%
Q1'26
-23%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
* Negative EPS shown at reduced height
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
Neutral — mixed activity
90d10
Compass PointNeutral
Feb 17
UPGRADE
Goldman SachsSell → Neutral
Feb 13
UPGRADE
CitigroupBuy → Underperform
Feb 13
DOWNGRADE
BTIGSell → Neutral
Nov 11
UPGRADE
CitigroupBuy
Nov 8
UPGRADE
Piper SandlerUnderperform → Overweight
Nov 8
UPGRADE
WedbushEqual-Weight → Neutral
Oct 14
UPGRADE
CitigroupNeutral → Mixed
Aug 7
UPGRADE
UBSNeutral
Feb 15
UPGRADE
Atlantic EquitiesNeutral
Aug 11
DOWNGRADE
Goldman SachsNeutral
Jul 10
DOWNGRADE
JMP SecuritiesMarket Outperform → Market Perform
Jul 8
DOWNGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
3 Buys/3 SellsNeutral
NET BUYERS$6.4M bought · $0 sold · 30d window
Gu PaulCEO
$1.4M
May 13
BUY
Girouard DaveDir
$9K
May 7
BUY
Girouard DaveDir
$5.0M
May 7
BUY
Mirgorodskaya Natal…See Remarks
$10K
Mar 2
SELL
Mirgorodskaya Natal…See Remarks
$25K
Feb 25
SELL
Datta SanjayCFO
$238K
Feb 20
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
BlackRock, Inc.
7.4M
2
Halter Ferguson Financial Inc.
1.5M
3
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
1.1M
4
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
1.0M
5
UBS Group AG
882K
6
CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A.
847K
7
CITIGROUP INC
806K
8
NORTHERN TRUST CORP
759K
News & Activity

UPST News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

Upstart is a leading AI lending platform partnering with banks to expand access to affordable credit. By leveraging Upstart's AI platform, Upstart- powered banks can have higher approval rates and lower loss rates, while simultaneously delivering the exceptional digital-first lending experience their customers demand. More than two-thirds of Upstart loans are approved instantly and are fully automated. Upstart was founded by ex-Googlers in 2012 and is based in San Mateo, California and Columbus, Ohio.

Industry
Credit Card Issuing
Paul GuCEO & Director
Sanjay DattaPresident of Capital & Enterprise
PeersFinancial Services(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
UPST
$29.51-0.67%$2.8B57.9+5887.5%498.4%1500
$297.81-0.70%$798.0B14.1+330.7%2039.3%1503
$325.75+1.00%$624.4B28.0+1134.0%5014.5%1500
$494.20+0.87%$436.7B28.3+1641.6%4564.7%1490
$49.77-0.16%$353.2B11.4-45.1%1592.6%1495
$192.51-1.04%$303.6B16.6+1147.7%1466.4%1526
$948.47-2.11%$279.8B15.9-138.4%1373.0%1526
Sector avg-0.40%24.6+1422.6%2364.1%1506