Vertex Energy (VTNR)

Wednesday

4:53 AM

ThesisThe company's significant operational losses and negative cash flow trends have raised concerns about its financial stability and ability to capitalize on market opportunities.

Revenue Outlook

Metric	FY2023	FY2024E	FY2025E
Revenue	$3.2B	$2.7B	$2.8B
Rev. Growth	+13.8%	-16.3%	+4.4%
EPS	$-0.84	$-1.42	$-0.61
EPS Growth	-250%	-69.0%	+57.0%
P/E	—	—	—

★ Analysts see FY2025 revenue reaching $2.8B — +4.4% growth in a single year.

What Moves the Stock

01Fluctuations in WTI and Brent crude oil prices, impacting raw material costs and margins
02Changes in regulatory policies regarding waste oil recycling and environmental standards
03Demand for re-refined products from automotive and industrial sectors
04Operational efficiency improvements and capacity expansions at the Texas re-refinery
05Re-refined base oils - 70%
06Used oil collection and processing - 20%
07Other petroleum products - 10%
08Sustainability in the oil and gas sector

FY2023 Snapshot

Revenue: $3.2B
Rev. Growth: +13.8%
Gross Margin: 4.4%
Op. Margin: -0.9%
Net Margin: -2.2%
Net Income: $-71M
NI Growth: -329%
EPS: $-0.84
1Y Return: -88.1%

My Notes

"Management noted, 'We are facing unprecedented challenges in maintaining operational efficiency amidst rising costs.'"
Moat: Vertex's proprietary re-refining technology provides a competitive edge, but it is vulnerable to advancements by competitors.
value - Investors may be attracted to the stock due to its low valuation metrics and potential for recovery as market conditions improve.
Interest rates affect Vertex Energy primarily through financing costs for capital expenditures and operational debt.
Watch on earnings: WTI Crude Oil Price (DCOILWTICO), Brent Crude Oil Price (DCOILBRENTEU), Volume of used oil collected.

One Sentence Summary:

Vertex Energy: the story is balanced — fluctuations in wti and brent crude oil prices, impacting raw material costs and margins.

Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.

Writing up the research noteFirst read for a new ticker takes about 20-30 seconds while we build the analysis from the latest fundamentals, estimates, and intelligence. It's saved after this, so future visits are instant.