Combined ratio performance - every point below 100% significantly impacts underwriting profit
Auto insurance rate adequacy and competitive dynamics in key states (California, Texas, Florida, New York)
Catastrophe losses from hurricanes, wildfires, and severe convective storms relative to reinsurance coverage
Investment portfolio yield and unrealized gains/losses on fixed-income holdings as rates fluctuate
moderate - Auto insurance demand is relatively inelastic as coverage is legally mandated, but economic downturns increase policy cancellations, reduce miles driven (lowering claim frequency), and pressure premium growth. Homeowners insurance tracks housing market activity. Unemployment spikes correlate with higher policy lapses and payment delinquencies. Consumer sentiment affects shopping behavior and willingness to switch carriers for lower rates.
Rising interest rates are highly positive for Allstate's economics. The $130B+ investment portfolio (primarily fixed-income) generates higher yields on new investments and reinvestment of maturing bonds, directly boosting investment income. Higher rates also increase discount rates on loss reserves, reducing present value of future claim payments. However, rising rates create mark-to-market losses on existing bond holdings (unrealized losses in equity). The 10-year Treasury yield is the primary benchmark for portfolio positioning and duration management.
Climate change increasing frequency and severity of catastrophic weather events (hurricanes, wildfires, hail), particularly in coastal and wildfire-prone regions, potentially exceeding historical actuarial models
Autonomous vehicle technology and ride-sharing reducing auto insurance demand over 10-20 year horizon as accident frequency declines
State insurance regulation limiting rate increases in key markets (California Proposition 103 restricts pricing flexibility), creating adverse selection and potential market exits
value - Allstate trades at 2.0x book value with 43% ROE, attracting value investors focused on underwriting discipline and capital return. The 16% FCF yield and consistent buyback program appeal to income-focused investors. Stock exhibits defensive characteristics during recessions but lags growth stocks in bull markets. Quarterly earnings volatility from catastrophe losses attracts event-driven traders.
Trend
+2.0% vs SMA 50 · +4.6% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2023 | $60.3B $59.5B–$61.0B | — | $11.07 | — | ±2% | High12 |
FY2024 | $55.2B $54.9B–$55.4B | ▼ -8.5% | $16.82 | ▲ +52.0% | ±5% | High14 |
FY2025 | $59.0B $58.3B–$60.1B | ▲ +6.9% | $30.46 | ▲ +81.1% | ±11% | High16 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
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| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALL◀ | $215.47 | +0.30% | $55.0B | 4.6 | +463.7% | 1547.1% | 1511 |
| $304.88 | -0.70% | $803.9B | 14.2 | +330.7% | 2039.3% | 1501 | |
| $326.42 | +1.59% | $620.8B | 27.9 | +1134.0% | 5014.5% | 1499 | |
| $499.81 | -1.09% | $439.9B | 28.5 | +1641.6% | 4564.7% | 1492 | |
| $50.78 | -1.48% | $358.7B | 11.6 | -45.1% | 1592.6% | 1500 | |
| $191.90 | +1.51% | $301.4B | 16.5 | +1147.7% | 1466.4% | 1523 | |
| $945.90 | +0.89% | $278.7B | 15.9 | -138.4% | 1373.0% | 1521 | |
| Sector avg | — | +0.15% | — | 17.0 | +647.8% | 2513.9% | 1507 |