First read for a new ticker takes about 20–30 seconds while we build the analysis from the latest fundamentals, estimates, and intelligence. It's saved after this, so future visits are instant.
Thesis: TopBuild: the story is balanced — Single-family housing starts and permits: 70%+ of installation revenue tied to residential new construction activity…
★ Analysts see FY2026 revenue reaching $6.1B — +12.1% growth in a single year.
What Moves the Stock
1Single-family housing starts and permits: 70%+ of installation revenue tied to residential new construction activity, with typical 60-90 day lag from permit to insulation installation
2Homebuilder order trends and backlog: Direct correlation to top builder production schedules, particularly D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup volumes
3Acquisition announcements: Company pursues roll-up strategy targeting $50-150M revenue installers and distributors, typically 6-8x EBITDA multiples with 15-20% IRR targets
4Material cost inflation/deflation: Fiberglass and spray foam input costs affect gross margins, though typically passed through with 30-60 day lag
5Commercial construction activity: Growing exposure to warehouse, data center, and institutional projects providing diversification from residential cycles
6Installation services (~75% of revenue): Direct installation of insulation, rain gutters, garage doors, fireplaces, and shower enclosures primarily in single-family and multi-family residential new construction
7Specialty Distribution (~25% of revenue): Wholesale distribution of insulation and building materials to contractors through network of distribution centers
8Commercial installation: Growing segment serving commercial construction projects including warehouses, schools, and healthcare facilities
growth - Stock attracts growth investors focused on market share consolidation story and operating leverage during housing upcycles.
Rising mortgage rates significantly impact housing affordability and buyer demand, reducing housing starts with 6-12 month lag.
Watch on earnings: Monthly housing starts (HOUST) and building permits (PERMIT): Leading indicators with 60-90 day lead time to revenue impact, 30-year fixed mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US): Primary driver of housing affordability and buyer demand, Homebuilder stock performance (XHB ETF): Real-time indicator of investor sentiment on housing cycle and builder order trends.
One Sentence Summary:
TopBuild: the story is balanced — single-family housing starts and permits: 70%+ of installation revenue tied to residential new construction activity.
Auto-composed from Stock Alarm intelligence, financial statements, and analyst estimates. Not investment advice.