Golf participation rates and rounds played (correlates to equipment replacement cycles and venue traffic)
TopGolf same-venue sales growth and new location openings (unit economics and expansion pace)
Equipment market share in key categories (drivers, putters, balls) tracked via Datatech or Golf Datatech reports
Discretionary consumer spending trends among affluent demographics (median golfer household income $95K+)
high - Golf equipment and apparel are highly discretionary purchases deferrable during economic uncertainty. Equipment replacement cycles extend from 3-4 years to 5-7 years in downturns. TopGolf venues depend on corporate events (20-30% of revenue) and entertainment spending, both early cyclical cuts. Affluent consumer base provides some insulation versus mass-market discretionary, but participation rates correlate strongly with consumer confidence and leisure time availability.
Rising rates negatively impact the business through multiple channels: (1) TopGolf venue expansion requires significant capital investment ($15-25M per location), making higher borrowing costs reduce expansion ROI and slow growth; (2) Consumer financing for premium equipment purchases ($500-800 driver sets) becomes less attractive; (3) Valuation multiples compress as investors rotate from growth/cyclical to defensive sectors; (4) Mortgage rate increases reduce discretionary income for homeowner demographic that overlaps heavily with golf participation.
Declining golf participation rates among younger demographics (millennials, Gen Z) preferring alternative entertainment and shorter-duration activities, threatening long-term equipment demand despite TopGolf's appeal to casual players
Retail channel consolidation and shift to e-commerce reducing wholesale distribution points and increasing Amazon/direct competition, compressing margins through price transparency
Climate change affecting golf course viability in drought-prone regions (Southwest US) and reducing playable days in key markets
value/turnaround - The 79.7% one-year return following 51.4% revenue decline suggests investors are betting on operational restructuring, potential TopGolf venue rationalization, or return to normalized demand. Low 0.7x Price/Sales and 9.6x EV/EBITDA multiples indicate deep value positioning. Negative ROE attracts distressed/special situations investors rather than quality growth buyers. Recent strong momentum (30.4% three-month return) drawing tactical traders.
Trend
+7.1% vs SMA 50 · +28.5% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Heavy distribution on elevated volume — institutions appear to be exiting. Squeeze setups unlikely while selling pressure persists.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2024 | $4.2B $4.2B–$4.2B | — | $0.14 | — | ±1% | Moderate3 |
FY2025 | $3.9B $3.9B–$3.9B | ▼ -6.5% | -$0.15 | — | ±31% | High7 |
FY2026(current) | $2.1B $2.1B–$2.1B | ▼ -47.5% | $0.64 | — | ±50% | High7 |
Dividend per payment — last 8 periods
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
CALY News
About
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| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CALY◀ | $15.23 | -0.75% | $2.7B | 85.6 | -5140.5% | 188.3% | 1500 |
| $264.14 | -1.15% | $2.8T | 31.3 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1521 | |
| $422.24 | -4.75% | $1.6T | 352.3 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1507 | |
| $297.51 | -2.25% | $296.3B | 20.9 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1477 | |
| $276.39 | +0.52% | $196.4B | 22.6 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1478 | |
| $147.43 | +0.05% | $163.2B | 30.2 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1494 | |
| $218.42 | -2.32% | $122.3B | 18.3 | +312.2% | 771.2% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -1.52% | — | 80.2 | -353.6% | 1056.8% | 1495 |