Quarterly unit volume trends and average selling prices (ASP) - indicating market share gains/losses versus Weber and private label competition
Gross margin trajectory - reflecting input cost pressures (steel, freight, pellet wood fiber) and promotional intensity required to move inventory
DTC revenue mix and customer acquisition costs - higher-margin channel critical for path to profitability
Inventory levels and sell-through rates at major retailers (Home Depot, Costco) - indicating channel health and markdown risk
high - Premium outdoor cooking equipment is highly discretionary, with demand closely tied to consumer confidence, disposable income, and housing activity. The product category saw explosive pandemic growth (outdoor entertainment, home improvement spending) followed by sharp normalization. Purchases are deferrable and price-sensitive during economic uncertainty, particularly given $500-$2,000 price points competing with $200-$400 gas grills. New home sales and existing home turnover drive grill replacement cycles.
Rising rates negatively impact Traeger through multiple channels: (1) reduced consumer purchasing power for big-ticket discretionary items, particularly as credit card rates increase; (2) housing market slowdown reduces new grill purchases tied to home sales and outdoor renovations; (3) higher cost of debt service on the company's 2.3x debt/equity capital structure, pressuring already-negative margins; (4) valuation multiple compression for unprofitable growth companies as risk-free rates rise.
Category commoditization as patents expire - Weber, Masterbuilt, Pit Boss, and private label brands (Costco's Louisiana Grills) now offer wood pellet grills at 30-50% discounts to Traeger, eroding first-mover advantage
Outdoor cooking market maturity - limited category growth beyond replacement cycles as pandemic pull-forward exhausted multi-year demand
Shift to lower-price-point competition - consumers trading down to gas or charcoal grills during economic stress, or opting for cheaper pellet alternatives
value/turnaround - The 0.2x price/sales and 0.6x price/book ratios attract deep value investors betting on operational restructuring and return to profitability. The 65% one-year decline and negative margins deter growth investors. High volatility and turnaround uncertainty appeal to distressed/special situations funds rather than long-only growth or income investors. Requires conviction in management's ability to right-size cost structure and stabilize market share.
Trend
+16.5% vs SMA 50 · +146.9% vs SMA 200
Momentum
Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.
Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.
ANALYST ESTIMATES
Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported
| Year | Revenue Est. | Rev Gth | EPS Est. | EPS Gth | Range | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FY2025 | $549.3M $546.1M–$552.3M | — | -$6.19 | — | ±17% | High6 |
FY2026(current) | $472.0M $469.8M–$476.2M | ▼ -14.1% | -$1.24 | — | ±50% | High6 |
FY2027 | $486.8M $478.0M–$495.1M | ▲ +3.1% | $1.05 | — | ±50% | High6 |
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
COOK News
About
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| Symbol | Price | Day % | Mkt Cap↓ | P/E | Rev Grw | Margin | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COOK◀ | $40.78 | +5.44% | $113M | — | -737.5% | -2058.6% | 1500 |
| $264.14 | -1.15% | $2.8T | 31.3 | +1237.8% | 1083.4% | 1521 | |
| $422.24 | -4.75% | $1.6T | 352.3 | -293.1% | 400.1% | 1507 | |
| $297.51 | -2.25% | $296.3B | 20.9 | +324.0% | 859.6% | 1477 | |
| $276.39 | +0.52% | $196.4B | 22.6 | +372.3% | 3185.0% | 1478 | |
| $147.43 | +0.05% | $163.2B | 30.2 | +711.9% | 910.0% | 1494 | |
| $218.42 | -2.32% | $122.3B | 18.3 | +312.2% | 771.2% | 1489 | |
| Sector avg | — | -0.64% | — | 79.3 | +275.4% | 735.8% | 1495 |