EAT
Signal
Mixed11
Price
1
Move-2.69%Negative session
Volume
1
Volume0.8× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 51Momentum positive
PRICE
Prev Close
152.24
Open
153.25
Day Range144.94 – 155.00
144.94
155.00
52W Range100.30 – 187.12
100.30
187.12
55% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
1.3M
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
14.4x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
No dividend
Beta
1.49
Market-like
Performance
1D
-2.69%
5D
+6.50%
1M
+2.38%
3M
-8.62%
6M
+36.33%
YTD
+3.22%
1Y
+11.32%
Best: 6M (+36.33%)Worst: 3M (-8.62%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
BULLISH
revenue +12% YoY · 46% gross margin
Valuation
FAIR
P/E 14x vs ~20x sector
Health
WEAK
CR 0.4 (low) · FCF $11.68/sh
Lean Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$6.35B
Revenue TTM$5.73B
Net Income TTM$462.90M
Free Cash Flow$504.40M
Gross Margin46.0%
Net Margin8.1%
Operating Margin10.4%
Return on Equity123.4%
Return on Assets16.7%
Debt / Equity4.31
Current Ratio0.40
EPS TTM$10.72
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

Comparable restaurant sales growth (traffic vs. check): Recent momentum showing 10%+ comps driven by traffic recovery

Restaurant-level operating margins: Target range of 16-18%, sensitive to commodity inflation and labor costs

Digital and off-premise sales penetration: Now 30%+ of mix, higher-margin channel with growth runway

Unit economics and new store development: ROI targets of 25-30% on $3.5M investment per new Chili's location

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Casual dining is highly discretionary with strong correlation to consumer confidence and disposable income. The $15-25 per person price point targets middle-income households most sensitive to employment conditions and real wage growth. Traffic patterns typically lead GDP by 1-2 quarters. Off-premise channels provide some recession resilience vs. traditional dine-in, but overall sales decline 8-12% in recessions as consumers trade down to QSR or cook at home.

Interest Rates

Moderate sensitivity through two channels: (1) Debt servicing costs on $2.1B debt load (4.65x D/E ratio) - 100bp rate increase adds ~$15-20M annual interest expense; (2) Valuation multiple compression as rates rise reduces appetite for leveraged consumer discretionary stocks. Lower rates support consumer spending power by reducing mortgage/auto payments, indirectly benefiting traffic. Refinancing risk exists with debt maturities in 2028-2030.

Key Risks

Secular decline in casual dining traffic as consumers shift to fast-casual (Chipotle, Cava) and QSR+ formats offering better value and convenience

Labor availability and minimum wage inflation: 15-20 states implementing $15-18 minimum wages by 2027, potentially adding 200-300bps to labor costs

Commercial real estate exposure with long-term leases on 1,200+ locations in suburban markets facing demographic shifts and changing traffic patterns

Investor Profile

momentum/turnaround - Stock appeals to investors seeking operational improvement stories with near-term earnings acceleration. The 146% net income growth and 34% three-month return attracts momentum traders, while value investors are drawn to 1.3x P/S and 11.1x EV/EBITDA multiples despite turnaround execution. High leverage (4.65x D/E) and aggressive buybacks create equity volatility attractive to event-driven and special situations funds. Not suitable for income investors (minimal dividend) or conservative value investors (balance sheet risk).

Watch on Earnings
Monthly comparable restaurant sales trends (traffic vs. pricing components) relative to Black Box Intelligence industry benchmarksBeef and chicken commodity prices: represent 12-15% of COGS, with 10% inflation adding 120-150bps to food costsState and local minimum wage legislation: tracks labor cost inflation in key markets (California, New York, Texas)Consumer confidence index (University of Michigan) as leading indicator for casual dining traffic trends
Health Radar
3 strong3 concern
48/100
Liquidity
0.40Concern
Leverage
4.31Concern
Coverage
19.0xStrong
ROE
123.4%Strong
ROIC
22.4%Strong
Cash
$19MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE23 analysts
BUY
+24.2%upside to target
L $155.00
Med $184.00consensus
H $210.00
Buy
1565%
Hold
835%
15 Buy (65%)8 Hold (35%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
3 of 5 signals bullish
5/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 51 — Bullish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowDistribution — institutional selling
Fundamentals
Last EarningsBeat estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.40 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 4, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateJul 31, 2026
In 89 days
Technicals
Technical SetupMIXED
Technicals →

Trend

UptrendGolden Cross · 50D leads 200D by 0.2%

+1.7% vs SMA 50 · +1.9% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI51.1
Neutral territory
MACD-1.28
Below zero — bearish pulse · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$187.1+26.3%
EMA 200
$148.5+0.2%
Current
$148.1
EMA 50
$147.6-0.4%
52W Low
$100.3-32.3%
52-Week RangeMid-range
$100.355th %ile$187.1
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
Distribution Pressure

Distribution pattern detected. More selling days than accumulation over the past 20 sessions. Not a conducive environment for a squeeze.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:2
Dist days:6
Edge:+4 dist
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)1.4M
Recent Vol (5D)
1.3M-6%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 15 analysts
Analyst revisions:EPS↓ Revised DownRevenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$5.4B
$5.3B$5.4B
$8.88
±3%
High13
FY2026(current)
$5.8B
$5.8B$5.8B
+8.2%$10.71+20.6%
±1%
High15
FY2027
$6.1B
$6.1B$6.2B
+5.6%$12.38+15.6%
±4%
High15
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
🔥Beat 7 consecutive quarters
Earnings HistoryEAT
Last 8Q
+21.3%avg beat
Beat 7 of 8 quartersMissed 1 Estimates rising
-6%
Q3'24
+38%
Q4'24
+104%
Q1'25
+7%
Q2'25
+2%
Q3'25
+10%
Q4'25
+13%
Q1'26
+2%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
Raymond JamesMarket Perform → Outperform
Jan 21
UPGRADE
Raymond JamesMarket Perform → Buy
Jan 21
UPGRADE
Canaccord GenuityBuy
Jan 21
UPGRADE
Morgan StanleyUnderweight → Overweight
Jan 20
UPGRADE
UBSNeutral → Buy
Jan 6
UPGRADE
CitigroupNeutral → Buy
Nov 25
UPGRADE
Wells FargoUnderweight → Overweight
Sep 22
UPGRADE
Evercore ISIHold → Outperform
Sep 4
UPGRADE
KeyBancOverweight → Sector Weight
Jan 24
DOWNGRADE
BMO CapitalOutperform → Market Perform
Oct 31
DOWNGRADE
Raymond JamesOutperform → Market Perform
Oct 17
DOWNGRADE
Bank of America Sec…Underperform → Neutral
Oct 10
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Katzman James CDir
$73K
Feb 11
SELL
Fuller Daniel SSVP, Chief Leg…
$678K
Feb 6
SELL
Comings Douglas N.SVP & COO, Chi…
$223K
Feb 9
SELL
Ware Michaela MCFO
$812K
Feb 5
SELL
White Aaron MEVP, COO and C…
$1.2M
Feb 4
SELL
Felix George SSVP, Chief Mar…
$1.7M
Feb 3
SELL
Financials

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
CONGRESS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO /MA
616K
2
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
457K
3
Nuveen, LLC
160K
4
North Growth Management Ltd.
142K
5
abrdn plc
128K
6
BI Asset Management Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S
107K
7
HENNESSY ADVISORS INC
59K
8
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
53K
News & Activity

EAT News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

dallas-based brinker international, inc. is one of the world’s leading casual dining restaurant companies. founded in 1975, brinker produces $2.9 billion in sales and owns, operates, or franchises more than 1,600 restaurants across 31 countries and two territories under the names chili’s® grill & bar and maggiano’s little italy®. our restaurant support center supports both our national and international business. we are nestled in the wooded north dallas community, conveniently located minutes from the highway, shopping and local restaurants. our multi- building campus boast vibrant and colorful walls while the main lobby welcomes guests and team members from around the world with a wall of history, a basketball hoop and a 1,700 pound ruby-red chili pepper. while the campus is beautiful, brinker’s true pride is in our people. in fact, the restaurant support center is honored to have a retention rate of 87% percent and is a proud winner of the 2016 best places to work in our hometown of

CEO
Wyman Roberts
Michaela WareExecutive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Douglas N. ComingsSenior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Chili's Grill & Bar
Kevin D. HochmanPresident, Chief Executive Officer & Director
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
EAT
$148.14-2.69%$6.4B13.8+2195.0%711.5%1500
$268.26+1.21%$2.9T31.7+1237.8%1083.4%1515
$390.82+2.41%$1.5T326.1-293.1%400.1%1490
$323.88-1.50%$322.6B22.7+324.0%859.6%1485
$286.64-2.37%$203.8B23.9+372.3%3185.0%1488
$156.83+0.05%$174.2B32.1+711.9%910.0%1510
$169.63+0.75%$131.4B21.8+1338.7%2007.7%1489
Sector avg-0.31%67.5+840.9%1308.2%1497