GPI
Next earnings: Jul 23, 2026 · Before open
Signal
Bearish Setup2
Price
1
Move-6.69%Selling pressure
Volume
1
Volume1.2× avgNormal activity
Technical
1
RSIRSI 44Momentum negative
PRICE
Prev Close
353.67
Open
351.78
Day Range329.81 – 351.78
329.81
351.78
52W Range292.44 – 488.39
292.44
488.39
19% of range
VOLUME & SIZE
Avg Volume
168.8K
FUNDAMENTALS
P/E Ratio
12.5x
Value territory
EPS (TTM)
Div Yield
0.01%
Beta
1.03
Market-like
Performance
1D
-6.69%
5D
-5.27%
1M
+0.92%
3M
-7.78%
6M
-15.06%
YTD
-16.09%
1Y
-19.87%
Best: 1M (+0.92%)Worst: 1Y (-19.87%)
Quick Read
TrendInsufficient MA data
Momentum
NEUTRAL
rev +7% · 16% gross margin
Valuation
CHEAP
P/E 13x vs ~20x sector
Health
MODERATE
CR 0.9 (low) · FCF $24.01/sh
Bullish
Key MetricsTTM
Market Cap$3.92B
Revenue TTM$22.47B
Net Income TTM$326.10M
Free Cash Flow$278.10M
Gross Margin15.5%
Net Margin1.5%
Operating Margin4.3%
Return on Equity11.0%
Return on Assets3.2%
Debt / Equity1.98
Current Ratio0.95
EPS TTM$27.18
Alpha SignalsFull Analysis →
What Moves This Stock

New vehicle inventory availability and days supply (OEM production constraints directly impact unit sales)

Used vehicle pricing trends and wholesale auction values (Manheim Index movements affect margin and inventory valuation)

F&I product penetration rates and per-vehicle revenue (PVR targets of $1,800-2,200 per unit)

Same-store service revenue growth and customer pay vs. warranty mix (higher-margin customer pay preferred)

Macro Sensitivity
Economic Cycle

high - Automotive retail is highly cyclical with 0.85-1.0 correlation to consumer discretionary spending. New vehicle sales track closely with employment levels, wage growth, and consumer confidence. The -35.5% YoY net income decline reflects normalization from pandemic-era pricing power and inventory scarcity. Premium brand concentration (40%+ of mix) provides some insulation during mild downturns but amplifies volatility in severe recessions as luxury purchases defer.

Interest Rates

High sensitivity through multiple channels: (1) Consumer financing costs directly impact affordability and monthly payment budgets (each 100bps rate increase reduces buying power ~8-10%), (2) Floorplan financing costs on $2-3B inventory (estimated $120-150M annual interest expense at current rates), (3) Valuation multiple compression as rates rise (dealership stocks historically trade 6-8x EBITDA, expanding in low-rate environments). The 1.33x debt/equity ratio indicates moderate leverage, with floorplan debt representing majority of liabilities.

Key Risks

Electric vehicle transition disrupting service revenue model (EVs require 40% less maintenance, threatening $3-4B annual parts/service revenue as fleet electrifies over 10-15 years)

Direct-to-consumer sales models from Tesla and emerging EV manufacturers bypassing franchise dealer network, with legacy OEMs exploring agency models in Europe

Regulatory changes to franchise laws potentially weakening dealer protections in certain states

Investor Profile

value - The stock trades at 0.2x P/S and 9.2x EV/EBITDA, below historical averages of 0.3-0.4x and 6-7x respectively, attracting value investors seeking cyclical recovery. The 10.2% FCF yield is compelling for cash flow-focused investors. However, -30.9% one-year return and -35.5% earnings decline have created negative momentum. Dividend investors may be attracted if payout is maintained (typical 1-2% yield for sector), though not specified in fundamentals.

Watch on Earnings
SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for U.S. light vehicle sales (currently ~15.5M units, normalized range 16-17M)Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (wholesale pricing benchmark affecting used vehicle margins)Consumer Sentiment Index and consumer credit availability (auto loan approval rates)Average new vehicle transaction prices and incentive spending per unit
Health Radar
3 watch3 concern
27/100
Liquidity
0.95Concern
Leverage
1.98Watch
Coverage
3.2xWatch
ROE
11.0%Watch
ROIC
7.7%Concern
Cash
$33MConcern
ANALYST COVERAGE22 analysts
BUY
+42.4%upside to target
L $460.00
Med $470.00consensus
H $500.00
Buy
1255%
Hold
1045%
12 Buy (55%)10 Hold (45%)0 Sell (0%)
Full report →
Stock Health
Composite Score
1 of 5 signals bullish
3/10
Technicals
RSI RangeRSI 44 — Bearish momentum
Volume
Volume FlowNeutral
~
Fundamentals
Last EarningsMissed estimates
Analyst ConsensusBuy
LiquidityCurrent Ratio 0.95 — liquidity risk
Upcoming Events
EEarnings ReportMay 6, 2026
Tomorrow
DEx-Dividend DateAug 3, 2026
In 90 days
PDividend PaymentAug 20, 2026
In 107 days
Technicals
Technical SetupBEARISH
Technicals →

Trend

DowntrendDeath Cross · 50D trails 200D by 17.0%

-0.1% vs SMA 50 · -17.1% vs SMA 200

Momentum

RSI43.8
Momentum fading
MACD+4.56
Above zero — bullish momentum · compressing
Market Position
Price Levels
52W High
$488.4+48.0%
EMA 200
$389.3+18.0%
EMA 50
$341.5+3.5%
Current
$330.0
52W Low
$292.4-11.4%
52-Week RangeNear 52-week low
$292.419th %ile$488.4
Squeeze SetupVolume-based
No Clear Setup

Volume distribution is neutral or leaning toward distribution. No compelling squeeze setup based on current money flow data.

20-Day Money Flow
Acc days:5
Dist days:4
Edge:+1 acc
Volume Context
Avg Vol (50D)167K
Recent Vol (5D)
206K+24%

Based on volume distribution analysis. Direct short interest data (short float %, days to cover) is not available in current data sources.

Earnings & Analysts

ANALYST ESTIMATES

Consensus of 8 analysts
Analyst revisions:Revenue↓ Revised Down

Analyst consensus estimates · Actuals replace estimates as reported

YearRevenue Est.Rev GthEPS Est.EPS GthRangeAnalysts
FY2025
$22.6B
$22.6B$22.7B
$41.35
±0%
High6
FY2026(current)
$23.0B
$22.6B$23.5B
+1.7%$41.69+0.8%
±2%
High7
FY2027
$23.7B
$23.0B$24.4B
+3.0%$46.64+11.9%
±3%
High8
Range confidence:Tight (high)ModerateWide (low)
Earnings HistoryGPI
Last 8Q
+2.8%avg beat
Beat 4 of 8 quartersMissed 3 Estimates rising
+5%
Q3'24
Q4'24
+14%
Q1'25
+5%
Q2'25
+12%
Q3'25
-2%
Q4'25
-9%
Q1'26
-2%
Q2'26
Beat
Miss
Estimate
Deeper color = bigger beat/miss
Analyst Activity
All ratings →
No recent activity
GuggenheimUnderperform → Neutral
May 14
DOWNGRADE
Morgan StanleyOverweight
Sep 25
UPGRADE
GuggenheimBuy
Apr 17
UPGRADE
Insider Activity
SEC Filings →
0 Buys/6 SellsNet Selling
Pereira LincolnDir
$3.3M
Aug 26
SELL
Mizell StevenDir
$219K
Jul 29
SELL
Mchenry Daniel JamesSVP & CFO
$1.1M
Jun 10
SELL
Mchenry Daniel JamesSVP & CFO
$256K
Jun 10
SELL
Mchenry Daniel JamesSVP & CFO
$200K
Jun 11
SELL
Mchenry Daniel JamesSVP & CFO
$142K
Jun 11
SELL
Financials
Dividends0.62% yield
+9.4% avg annual growth
Annual Yield0.62%
Quarterly Div.$0.5500
Est. Annual / Share$2.20
FrequencyQuarterly
Q2'24
Q3'24
Q4'24
Q1'25
Q2'25
Q3'25
Q4'25
Q1'26

Dividend per payment — last 8 periods

INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

1
Leeward Investments, LLC - MA
54K
2
Nuveen, LLC
52K
3
CONGRESS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO /MA
35K
4
BURNEY CO/
27K
5
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
24K
6
NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM
16K
7
NISA INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC
14K
8
Inspire Investing, LLC
9K
News & Activity

GPI News

20 articles · 4h ago

About

group one corp is an insurance company located in 1536 i st, bedford, indiana, united states.

CEO
Earl Hesterberg
Peter C. DeLongchampsSenior Vice President of Financial Services and Manufacturer Relations
Daniel James McHenrySenior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Daryl Adam KenninghamChief Executive Officer, President & Director
PeersConsumer Cyclical(7 companies)
Screen sector →
SymbolPriceDay %Mkt CapP/ERev GrwMarginELO
GPI
$330.00-6.69%$3.9B12.1+1322.8%143.4%1500
$272.05+1.41%$2.9T32.2+1237.8%1083.4%1515
$392.51+0.45%$1.5T327.5-293.1%400.1%1490
$312.42-3.54%$311.2B21.9+324.0%859.6%1485
$284.10-0.89%$201.9B23.7+372.3%3185.0%1488
$154.64-1.40%$171.7B31.7+711.9%910.0%1510
$165.58-2.39%$128.3B21.3+1338.7%2007.7%1489
Sector avg-1.86%67.2+716.4%1227.0%1497